Is Travis Kelce Destined for Stardom in 2015?

It took all of two weeks of the 2014 season for Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce to go from playing about a third of the snaps to splitting time with Week 1 starter Anthony Fasano. It wasn’t until Fasano went down with a knee contusion in Week 10 that Kelce had a chance to be a full-time player.

After the Chiefs released Fasano in a move to clear salary cap space, the logical assumption is Kelce will now get his chance to shine. If he realizes his potential, Kelce is destined for superstardom.

He’s nearly there after his performance in 2014, but to arrive he must build on it in 2015, and the expectations could not be any higher. Anything short of a Rob Gronkowski-like performance will surely disappoint some fans.

Fasano’s presence on the roster was one of the few remaining barriers to reaching the next level, but it certainly wasn’t the only one. The uncertainty at the wide receiver position, quarterback Alex Smith and head coach Andy Reid’s scheme and propensity to forget about his best players in key moments are all potential roadblocks.

More is Definitely More

Since Kelce essentially became a full-time player from Week 11 onward, we have an idea how he might produce now that Fasano is out of the picture. Some will point to him only having one touchdown from that point forward and four touchdowns before Fasano was hurt, but the Chiefs often used Kelce as a decoy in the red zone.

Maybe they didn’t target Kelce enough in the red zone, but the problem wasn’t necessarily Kelce. He had more targets, receptions and yards per game from Week 11 onward than he did for the first nine weeks. The touchdowns will come.

Split	Snap %	Targets/game	Receptions/Game	Yards/Game
Weeks 1-10	52.3%	4.8	3.8	48.7
Weeks 11-17	86.6%	5.4	4.7	60.6

Kelce was second only to Gronkowski and Coby Fleener in receiving yards among tight ends from Week 11-17 with 424 yards. That’s the kind of elite production people are hoping for in 2015 with Fasano out of the picture. It’s a good indicator that Kelce has arrived; he just needs a full season to show us.

A full season of production like that would put him around 90 receptions for 1,000 yards. That’s assuming he can replicate his 2014 performance across the board, which is the part that could be a little tougher to do.  

Taking the Next Step

For Kelce to take the next step, he’ll need some help. A lot of it depends on what the Chiefs do this offseason. Further adjustments to the roster on offense are on the way, which could affect Kelce’s performance in 2015.

The lack of top-end talent at wide receiver should mean more targets for Kelce. Even if they add a talented young player, it will take time for them to get familiar with Reid’s schemes. More opportunities usually mean more production, even if not more efficiency.

The downside would be not having any players to draw attention away from Kelce. The safeties would be able to stay over the top and protect against seam routes if the receivers can’t win outside. In such a scenario, Kelce would continue catching a lot of short passes.

That’s where Kelce’s ability after the catch must come in. Last year, Kelce averaged 7.5 yards after the catch per reception. That was the best of all tight ends that played at least 60 percent of the time, and more importantly the most of all tight ends with at least 50 receptions. Delanie Walker was second with 6.6 yards after the catch per reception and Gronkowksi was third at 5.6 yards.

Player	Targets	Receptions	Catch %	Yards/Rec.	YAC/Rec.
Travis Kelce	81	67	82.7	12.9	7.5
Delanie Walker	100	63	63	14.1	6.6
Rob Gronkowski	124	82	66.1	13.7	5.6
Coby Fleener	86	51	59.3	15.2	5.4
Jared Cook	91	52	57.1	12.5	5.3
Martellus Bennett	125	90	72	10.2	5.2
Heath Miller	89	66	74.2	11.6	5.2
Greg Olsen	121	84	69.4	12	4.5

Is Kelce’s performance after the catch sustainable? The reality is, it’s probably not.

Every tight end that has averaged more than 7.0 yards after the catch per reception on at least 50 receptions over the last eight years has failed to repeat the performance. Vernon Davis did it in 2008 on 31 receptions and again in 2010 on 56 receptions, which isn’t the kind of volume we’ll be looking at with Kelce.

It’s worth noting Smith was the quarterback in 10 of those games in 2010. He clearly favored Davis during his time in San Francisco. Smith’s game is just geared toward tight ends and running backs more than wide receivers.

Brent Celek (8.0 yards after the catch per reception) and Gronkowski (7.1) haven’t been able to repeat their amazing performances after the catch from 2011. What's worth noting here is Celek did it in Reid’s offense, and no one is complaining about Gronkowski’s performance of late. Of course, Gronkowski also has Tom Brady throwing him the ball.

Kelce seems like he’ll have a shot to replicate his performance after the catch even if it’s a rare feat. Reid’s offense and Smith’s affinity for throwing to tight ends just seems to be perfect for it. At worst, Kelce will get a higher volume of passes his way.

However, if Kelce does regress to the mean of about 5.0 yards after to catch per reception, he’ll have to catch all of his passes 2.5 yards deeper or catch about 16 more passes just to put up the same yardage as he did in 2014.

Even if Kelce can continue to catch 82.7 percent of his targets as he did in 2014, he’ll need 19 more targets to catch 16 more passes. That’s 100 targets, which is realistic.

If Kelce were to get all the targets that went to Fasano last year, he’d have had 117. Four tight ends had 121 or more targets in 2014.

If Kelce were to get 121 targets, he’d have a chance to get 100 receptions and 1,000 yards even considering the regression in his yards after the catch. If he doesn’t catch passes at the same rate as he did in 2014, he might have trouble reaching that level.

Without wholesale changes to the offense, his path to stardom is through opportunity and not necessarily better efficiency. Kelce could put up huge numbers as he did over the final seven games of 2014 and the offense may not be any better.

If Kelce can improve his performance while getting more opportunities, it would help the offense, but that’s far from a guarantee. While he may be destined for stardom, how much it will help the Chiefs may be in doubt.

In many ways, Kelce is not totally in control of his own development. He can’t run deeper routes than Reid wants or force Smith to throw it to him down the field. All Kelce can do is try to create yards after the catch, but to improve in that area may be difficult.

If the Chiefs figured out a way to sign a free agent like wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, who has played for Reid before, that might change the number of targets that go Kelce’s way. That may actually hurt his chances unless it pulls a safety over and opens up deeper passes for Kelce.

Smith would also have to be willing to throw deeper passes, which we know he is reluctant to do. It’s a tough situation for a player like Kelce, who can probably do more damage if he is allowed to work his way down the field.

Name	Targets	Yds. / Rec.	YAC / Rec.	Air Yards/Rec.
Martellus Bennett	125	10.2	5.2	5
Travis Kelce	81	12.9	7.5	5.4
Anthony Fasano	36	9	3.3	5.7
Jimmy Graham	121	10.5	3.4	7.1
Greg Olsen	121	12	4.5	7.5
Delanie Walker	100	14.1	6.6	7.5
Rob Gronkowski	124	13.7	5.6	8.1
Antonio Gates	98	11.9	3.8	8.1

Passes to Gronkowski traveled an average of 8.1 yards in the air (13.7 yards per reception minus 5.6 yards per reception after the catch) in 2014. Contrast that with Kelce’s 5.4 yards in the air per reception, which was nearly identical to Fasano’s 5.7 yards. Passes to Celek averaged 5.1 in 2011 and 6.1 in 2012.

Unless Reid changes his offense and gets a different quarterback, Kelce’s upside may be somewhat limited. That’s the unfortunate because he could probably be a lot better in a different situation.

To compensate, expect Reid to try to get Kelce into the end zone with more regularity in 2015. That’s where Kelce could be more dominant in 2015 quite easily. Last year he only had five touchdowns, which could easily double next season. Fasano had four touchdowns alone that could now go to Kelce.

If he stays healthy, Kelce should be one of the best tight ends in football in 2015. The opportunities will be there because there will be little competition for targets and he’s still very talented. While Kelce is destined to be a star in 2015, he will need some help to realize his Gronkowski-like potential.

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Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference and Pro Football Focus.