Checklist for Toronto Raptors During Season's Home Stretch

Just when you think you have the Toronto Raptors figured out, they find a way to make you question how good they really are and what they're capable of accomplishing. 

Blowing an 18-point lead against the New Orleans Pelicans on Feb. 23 with Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday on the sidelines didn't help matters. A 25-point win over the Atlanta Hawks was then overshadowed by a 22-point thrashing at the hands of the Houston Rockets on Feb. 21. 

Their most recent defeat came against the Dallas Mavericks in a 99-92 road loss on Feb. 24. 

There's very little consistency. Playing that many games in such a short period of time is obviously a burden, but excuses only run so far. 

Their 37-20 record is second-best in the Eastern Conference and seventh in the NBA, yet no one talks about the team as a force to be reckoned with. 

It's been a never-ending struggle for respect. As solid as they've been been for the majority of the year, they haven't made the transition from good to great in the eyes of many. 

With 25 games remaining, the Raptors will must focus on fixing some glaring issues if they want to get out of the first round of the NBA playoffs. 

Completing the following checklist will go a long way toward preparing them for what lies ahead in April and May. 

Kyle Lowry Must Play Like an All-Star Again

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While he may have been voted in as a starter for the Eastern Conference All-Star team, Kyle Lowry's numbers in 2015 have failed to live up to the standard he set for himself prior to receiving the honor.

He averaged 20.7 points on 45.1 percent shooting before the new year, including 7.7 assists and 4.8 rebounds in 32 games. Since then, those numbers have fallen to 15.4 points, 35.4 percent shooting, 6.5 assists and 4.4 rebounds.

Eric Koreen of the National Post did his best to explain Lowry's dip in production:

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It is hard to land on a conclusive reason for his relative struggles: fatigue, nagging injuries, an inevitable backslide and the lack of spacing partly caused by Terrence Ross’s cratering are all on the table. Regardless, Lowry is misfiring more often from everywhere on the floor, not just the three-point arc, just like the rest of his team.

"

His decline has become even more problematic over the last 10 games. He's averaging just 13.8 points while shooting 25.8 percent from three-point range. This doesn't include his 4-of-15 shooting night against the Mavericks. 

This isn't the Lowry fans are accustomed to seeing. He's forcing the issue on offense, single-handedly trying to get the team back in games by taking quick shots during cold spurts. It's a hero mentality that halts ball movement in its tracks. 

This was hugely apparent during the Mavericks game, as Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports pointed out: 

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Lowry with a couple bricks from 3, both early in clock, down the stretch. He's now 2-for-9 from distance on the night, 6/35 over last 5 gms

— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) February 25, 2015"

There's no surefire explanation as to why Lowry has fallen off the map. If he's tired, he should rest. If he's injured, he should sit.

Let's just hope he figures out what's causing his slump, makes some adjustments and rights the ship before things get really ugly. 

A Role for Jonas Valanciunas

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Jonas Valanciunas and fourth quarters mix like oil and water. 

He wasn't on the floor late as the Pelicans went ahead in the final two minutes of their 100-97 win.

Coach Dwane Casey explained after the game that it had more to do with his fatigue than anything else, per NBA.com: "He and Amir both were gassed. We needed length, we needed size, we needed some length in there with those guys. JV did a heck of a job, I thought, in the stretch he was in; I just thought he ran out of gas."

An 82-75 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Feb. 2 saw Valanciunas on the bench again, although Casey's reasoning this time revolved around matchups and wanting to get quicker, per Josh Rubin of the Toronto Star:

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In very basic terms, usually if we’re scrambling, double-teaming, trying to get back defensively, trying to play fast, in those situations, JV’s not in the game.

They (the guards) need help from the bigs, being there with the body, impacting the ball and we need help. In our scheme, the guards need help in that situation, to help cover for them, and help cover when the guards turn the corner. So that’s why it’s more important to have a big in there who can move his feet, who can guard a perimeter guy.

"

His numbers of 12.0 points and 8.7 rebounds on 55.6 percent shooting warrant a seal of approval, but if Casey elects to go with matchups instead of playing the hot hand, there's not a lot Valanciunas can do about it. 

Game pace tends to slow down in the playoffs, with more teams looking inside to their frontcourts for buckets around the rim. Valanciunas' role will hopefully increase during that time. 

His lack of run in the fourth quarter is disheartening, though. His 5.2 minutes are 10th on the team, which is over three minutes behind Patrick Patterson (8.3). 

He has soft hands around the rim with a silky touch when his back is to the basket. The Raptors are better off when his confidence is high and he's looking to score.

It's best for Casey to use this resource wisely and figure out a way to maximize his contributions. 

A Cure for What Ails Terrence Ross

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The Raptors' postseason fate won't be determined by Terrence Ross' play, but if he can get his game back on track, it would take some of the pressure off his teammates. 

The problem is there's little indication the 24-year-old is capable of making such a turnaround during this final stretch. 

His season has been discouraging at best. There haven't been any noticeable strides taken in his third year, as both his offense and defense are on the decline. 

Masai Ujiri still sees a world of potential in his young swingman, though, which is a big reason why he didn't deal him before the Feb. 19 trade deadline, per Michael Grange of Sportsnet: 

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How many guys on our team can raise up and make a shot with someone in their face, like Terrence? They aren’t many in the league. He’s had lapses on defence but that’s something you grow out of with experience. He is really a two-way player; he has ability to stay in front of guys, he can hit a shot; he’s athletic as hell and he can hit threes. Every team is looking for players like that.

"

Any impact he makes tends to come from behind the arc, with 51 percent of his points being from deep but on a modest 36.4 completion percent, per NBA.com. 

As athletic as he is, it's a shame Ross doesn't show a willingness to drive and draw contact around the basket more often. His 0.8 free-throw attempts are the lowest of any Raptor with at least 35 appearances. 

The team is also stronger defensively when he's sitting on the bench. Opponents average 107 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor, compared to 99.9 when he's yanked.

The clock is winding down, and patience is wearing thin with Ross. He can earn a lot of brownie points back by finishing the season strong and carrying over some momentum into the playoffs. 

Just don't hold your breath. 

James Johnson Must Stay at Small Forward

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Coach Casey was surely concerned upon adding James Johnson to the starting lineup on Feb. 8.

He isn't a strong outside shooter, so the Raptors' ability to stretch the floor was likely going to take a hit due to his involvement.

Johnson's value as a starter is determined by how much of an emphasis you put on offense and defense, respectively. His 13.5 points in his last six starts are third on the team. He's also hitting 70.8 percent from the field, along with three makes from behind the arc. 

The Raptors have broken the 100-point mark in just one of those games, though. Their offensive rating is 94.5, which is 29th overall. 

The defense has been superb, ranking second in the league with a rating of 93.3. Only the Pelicans scored 100 or more points, while three teams were held under 93. 

His ability to play both the 3 and 4 spots is beneficial to Casey and whichever lineups he decides to run. Johnson is strong enough to defend bigs in the paint and agile enough to make life miserable for his matchup on the perimeter. 

No one is more efficient on drives to the basket than Johnson. He leads the league with at least 100 drives at 67.3 percent. 

The starting lineup needs some stability. Casey has tinkered with using Ross and Greivis Vasquez in the past, but with Johnson, there's a consistent mix of scoring and sound defensive play.

The numbers will get better over time, so there's no need to panic with the lousy offensive rating. Johnson needs to be locked in at small forward for the remainder of the season and into the playoffs. 

It's Time to Move the Basketball

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The Raptors' roster isn't short on players with scoring mentalities who love stepping up to the plate.

The team's three leading scorers—Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Lou Williams—all fall in that category. Thus, shots go up and passing becomes limited when they commit to that train of thought. 

Lowry is the only player averaging more than five assists (7.1), while DeRozan and Vasquez chip in over three per game. No one else averages over two.

This explains why Toronto is just 21st in assists at 20.8 and 25th in passes per game at 281.4.

They're also 29th in assist opportunities with 39.3 (according to NBA.com, those are passes by a player to a teammate in which the teammate attempts a shot that, if made, would be recorded as "assisted"). 

Pull-up shots are the Raptors' bread and butter, as they rank second with 26.4 attempts. That number stings when you realize they're only hitting 34.6 percent of those attempts (25th).

There's too much isolation basketball and not enough ball movement. The 2013-14 NBA champion San Antonio Spurs won their fifth Larry O'Brien Trophy by playing team basketball, finding the open man, swinging the ball and getting easy looks at the basket.

Ignoring that formula hasn't hurt the Raptors in the standings, but it's definitely making their lives more difficult when they steer away from the fundamentals of the game. 

Christopher Walder is considered by many to be the "songbird of his generation" and the greatest center to have never played professional, collegiate, high school, house league or pickup basketball. His work has been published on Bleacher Report, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, FanSided and several other online outlets. You may follow him on Twitter at @WalderSports.

All statistics, unless otherwise noted, are courtesy of NBA.com/stats and Basketball-Reference.com.