How Much Is Cam Newton Really Worth?

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is about to be part of an experiment. A financial one, and at this point any hypothesis needs to include many zeros.

But how many? Place your beakers and test tubes aside for a moment, class. Carefully study the dollars before you and attempt to allocate them properly between three young quarterbacks: Newton, the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson and the Colts’ Andrew Luck.

Know that two of those quarterbacks—Wilson and Luck—will need more dollars. Many more, and once they’re given contract extensions sometime in the near future, a new high watermark for the position will be established.

That’s why Newton is content to wait for Wilson and Luck while they reset the market, according to a report from Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer. He’s currently set to be paid $14.7 million in 2015 after the Panthers picked up his fifth-year option, and beyond that the franchise tag is a possibility.

That is where we arrive at the main question of our experiment. Exactly how much does Newton deserve to be paid after a brave new quarterback contract landscape is created by Luck and Wilson?

Before attempting to answer that, it’s a good idea to look up.

A sharp market climb is coming

Whenever a new quarterback contract is signed, it’s compared to what the position’s top money makers are banking.

That reaction isn’t unwise or wrong-headed thinking. But it does lack some context and overlooks the reality that the quarterback market has been rising steadily along with the NFL’s collective bankroll.

Quarterbacks anchor an offense, and their arm usually determines the employment status of many men on the sideline and in the front office of each team. Of the top 20 NFL contracts based on average annual pay, 15 belong to quarterbacks, according to Spotrac.

That’s far from startling information, but it's important to keep in mind as the floor and ceiling of pay at the position are set to shift again.

Market movement is always attached to the salary cap in any given year. In theory (and usually in practice), the money given to the highest earners rises proportionately alongside the maximum figure teams can spend to field a roster.

And in 2015 the salary cap is set to soar again. NFL Network’s Albert Breer relayed the estimate given by the Players Association during the union’s annual scouting combine meeting:

The official cap number for 2015 will be finalized before the start of the new league year on March 7. If the NFLPA’s estimate is correct, then a salary cap no lower than $143 million will make Newton, Luck and Wilson go full Scrooge McDuck. That cap number would represent an increase of $10 million over 2014 and $20 million over the past two years.

The NFL of today is a league with even more riches available to shower on quarterback royalty. Consider the top five highest average annual salaries in the league (all quarterbacks) and make special note of when each contract was signed.

Player	Year contract was signed	Average annual salary
Aaron Rodgers	2013	$22 million
Matt Ryan	2013	$20.75 million
Joe Flacco	2013	$20.1 million
Drew Brees	2012	$20 million
Peyton Manning	2012	$19.2 million

It’s a safe assumption all five quarterbacks would be hauling in substantially more if those contracts were signed today. The parameters for Luck’s potentially record-setting deal will put his eventual extension in the neighborhood of $25 million per year, according to a report from ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

Wilson’s contract could be a different, historic and precedent-setting matter. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Wilson could receive a fully guaranteed contract, a sighting so rare it’s the league’s unicorn equivalent. For the Seahawks the move makes sense, as Wilson will be motivated to accept less money if he’s guaranteed to receive all of it, and Seattle will then have future cap space available to retain other core assets.

But as Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole noted after speaking with several sources, a fully guaranteed contract is leading to sweaty palms for both agents and general managers.

That’s the state of the market Newton is waiting on, with one quarterback likely set to shatter the previous annual base salary high and another staring at the possibility of fully secured cash in hand.

Meanwhile, Wilson is 26 years old. Newton turns 26 in May, while Luck will turn 26 shortly after the 2015 season begins.

He shares their age, but he doesn’t quite share their talent or success.

Newton is on a different tier

A lower tier, though only slightly.

An examination of the surface shows Newton’s career so far after four seasons—including a severely injury-plagued 2014—isn’t far from the trajectories set by Luck and Wilson in certain areas and is miles behind in others.

Quarterback	Comp %	Passing yds/game	Yds/attempt	QB rating
Cam Newton	59.5	232.7	7.5	85.4
Russell Wilson	63.4	207.3	7.9	98.6
Andrew Luck	58.6	269.9	7.1	86.6

Luck has earned his forthcoming pit of cash by leading the league in touchdown passes during the 2014 season (40). He also finished fourth in air yards (2,620) and sixth in completion percentage on throws traveling 20-plus yards (47.7 percent), all per Pro Football Focus.

Then there’s Wilson, whose 869 rushing yards in 2014 were the fifth most for a quarterback in single-season history, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. Like Luck, Wilson also dropped balls into tight and faraway windows, completing 46.2 percent of his throws that sailed over 20 yards, per PFF.

Newton? His deep accuracy has lagged significantly by comparison.

Quarterback	2014	2013	2012
Cam Newton	31.5	31.3	52.4
Russell Wilson	46.2	48.3	48.4
Andrew Luck	47.7	36.7	42.6

Combined, Wilson and Luck have produced only one season with a completion percentage below 40.0 on deep balls. Newton has spit out two under 35.0 on his own.

Newton functions differently as a quarterback. His status as a lumbering runaway beer truck has periodically led to effectiveness using read-option plays. At 6’5” and 245 pounds he often morphs into a goal-line running back. Newton has scored 33 career rushing touchdowns, while Luck and Wilson have combined for 23.

The more appropriate comparison for Newton, then, is to San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick. But Newton doesn’t want a Kaepernick contract. He wants more guaranteed money, and the market just might give it to him.

The Panthers may have to close their eyes and jump

Kaepernick received a contract extension structured for a quarterback who’s high on potential and growth but low on consistency. Signed in April of 2014, his six-year contract contained only just over $13 million guaranteed at signing, according to ProFootballTalk.

The overall guaranteed figure is actually $61 million, but in a pay-as-you-go scheme much of it is for injury only. Each year between 2014 and 2017 his base salary becomes fully guaranteed on April 1, and there are also de-escalators in the contract that rip $2 million from his hands every season the 49ers don’t appear in the Super Bowl or he’s not named a first- or second-team All Pro.

The important takeaway: The 49ers can end their Kaepernick marriage at no cost during any year, as long as they do it before April 1.

It’s not difficult to see why Newton reportedly wants more guaranteed money, according to Person, especially when general manager David Gettleman is openly calling him a franchise quarterback.

And so we return to the problem of the market and how far it should pull Newton along. It's a delicate dance Gettleman may have to awkwardly stumble through.

If a Kaepernick-type structure isn’t agreeable, then Newton will likely also frown upon the many fake dollars given to Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. His extension signed just prior to the 2014 season contained plenty of fluff, with only $17 million guaranteed in a deal worth $96 million total.

Newton may be an inconsistent passer, but his mobility and four 500-plus yard rushing seasons put him beyond Dalton’s level. He falls into a murky middle then between the limited pity money thrown at his two draft-class mates (Dalton and Kaepernick) and the other two who will raise the bar for this generation of quarterbacks (Luck and Wilson).

Newton could become a blueprint and land somewhere between those two financial extremes. His age and the rapidly inflating market pushed by Wilson and Luck may nudge his average annual base salary toward $20 million.

That would be the most painful outcome. Ideally, a contract paying Newton somewhere around $17-19 million would hit a sweet spot and be in the same vicinity as Kaepernick (average salary of $19 million) and Dalton ($16 million). Then to both separate and satisfy, it’s difficult to see a future with Newton earning less guaranteed money than the Chiefs’ Alex Smith ($45 million).

There’s a lot of pain associated with that number, too, but the shifting market can only be fought for so long before a so-called franchise quarterback has to be paid like one.

The alternative of joining the teams desperately searching for a quarterback leads to losing both games and jobs.