NBA Draft Notebook: Karl-Anthony Towns Challenging Jahlil Okafor's No. 1 Status

You can start to feel Kentucky freshman Karl-Anthony Towns' NBA draft case strengthening.

He's played at least 20 minutes in four of the Wildcats' last six games. And in those four games, he's averaged 16.2 points, 11 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.5 blocks. Over his last seven outings overall, he's shooting 66.6 percent. 

Up until recently, Towns hadn't shown us that comforting, steady production, having converted four field goals or fewer in 18 of his first 20 games. You only got to witness his talent through flashes, which naturally diminished his credibility compared to fellow freshman Jahlil Okafor, who's consistently put up dominant numbers at Duke.

Still, even though Towns' numbers haven't always been there, he's stayed just as productive in his lesser role. Take a look at how close they actually stack up when looking at the per-40-minute stats:

Towns' stock has recently received the biggest boost over the past seven games. Those flashes we sporadically saw throughout the first 10 weeks? They've begun occurring more frequently, particularly on offense. That's translated to bigger totals in the box scores and a more convincing NBA pitch.

"It's almost scientific," Towns told Bleacher Report's Jason King in reference to the strides he's made. "When you try to make something grow quicker than it's supposed to grow, it doesn't come out right. It's not as good. But when you let things happen naturally, the way it's supposed to be done, you get way better results."

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

If you were trying to sell Towns as the superior prospect to Okafor, the Auburn game Saturday night would be a good place to start. 

He scored off a couple of clean moves in the post to open up. Then we started seeing Towns' versatility come to life. He later converted a drive from 20 feet out and then knocked down an 18-foot rise-and-fire jumper like a pro. 

Against LSU on Feb. 10, he generated plenty of reaction after sinking an eye-opening step-back jumper from 20 feet out to beat the shot clock. Bomani Jones asked if the step-back jumper is a regular, go-to shot:

To answer the question in Jones' tweet—no, it's not a shot Towns has gone to often. But it's clearly in the arsenal, along with a couple of other perimeter ball skills that, if sharpened, could really enhance the mismatch he presents.

LibertyBallers.com's Derek Bodner alludes to Towns' ultimate potential "when he fully puts it all together":

The fact he's shooting 78.8 percent from the line is also encouraging. He's displayed legitimate touch on his shooting stroke, and it makes the idea of Towns developing into a stretch or pick-and-pop big man a little more believable. 

Meanwhile, though a different style player, Okafor is making just 54.8 percent of his free throws. He hasn't given scouts much reason to believe there's a jumper in the works. You have to wonder if that could turn off No. 1 overall pick contenders such as the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic—lineups that already have interior-oriented centers who live in the paint.

Spacing and clutter would ultimately be the concern of pairing Okafor with a player such as Joel Embiid or Nikola Vucevic. 

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

General managers won't have much to question in terms of fit when it comes to Towns, whose potential to play inside or out should work next to anyone. That could be Embiid, Vucevic or even DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento. 

Of course, general managers will typically just look to draft whomever they believe is the best available prospect, regardless of fit or position. But they also tend to favor upside over polish, and Towns has that going for him as well.

He projects more as a two-way player, and while his offensive impact has fluctuated, his defensive influence has remained constant. Towns ranks No. 1 in the nation in defensive rating, according to Sports-Reference.com, and is one of the game's premier shot-blockers.

Of current NBA big men, only Hassan Whiteside and Anthony Davis finished their final college seasons with a higher block percentage than Towns' 13 percent, per RealGM.com.

On the other side of the spectrum is Okafor, whose 4.4 percent block rate ranks at the bottom, alongside Vucevic, Mason and Miles Plumlee, J.J. Hickson and Greg Monroe.

Towns' defensive tools and instincts could possibly attract this year's bottom-of-the-barrel franchises. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz make up the league's worst teams in defensive efficiency, according to ESPN.com, and each will likely be competing for a top pick in June.

Either way, as a rim-protector with do-it-all-offensive potential, Towns is going to be a hot commodity during draft season, whether it's for poor defensive teams, good ones or others with centers already in place. 

ESPN Insider Fran Fraschilla recently addressed Towns' all-purpose strengths and 2015 NBA draft outlook:

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The 7-foot, 250-pound freshman with a 7'3" wingspan will be one of the top-three players selected on June 25. And although the 19-year-old is not as advanced as fellow Wildcat Anthony Davis was at the same stage, he is the basketball equivalent of a five-tool guy, with a nice combination of skill, size, athleticism, youth and a "give a damn" meter than runs high.

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The recent praise for Towns shouldn't take anything away from Okafor. He's currently the more proven player and prospect, averaging 17.9 points and 9.4 rebounds. If the draft were tomorrow, odds are he'd still go No. 1. 

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

But Towns is gaining ground, even though the Duke big man has yet to slow down. For Towns, not only has his recent surge helped remind us of his towering upside, but it's making it easier to buy in.

Notables

• With Louisville's Chris Jones getting dismissed, sophomore Terry Rozier suddenly has a terrific opportunity to prove his worth as a point guard prospect. Rozier's 2.5-2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio isn't exactly an attractive number for a 6'1" combo. Keep an eye on how he balances hunting for shots with playmaking for teammates. 
• Duke freshman wing Justise Winslow appears to be back on track after a brief slump in January. With Okafor out of the lineup, he just tied his season high with 20 points against Clemson on Saturday, marking his eighth consecutive game scoring in double figures. Winslow has also now made a three in 23 of 27 games. He's playing the best ball of his season entering the most important stretch. Meanwhile, fellow freshman wings Stanley Johnson of Arizona and Kelly Oubre of Kansas have both struggled lately with consistency.
• LSU sophomore forward Jarell Martin just went off for 28 points and 13 rebounds in a win against Florida on Saturday. Martin most recently generated buzz after going for 21 points and 11 boards against Kentucky. Listed at 6'10", he reminds you a bit of Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris, another broad-shouldered, inside-out face-up combo. Martin is averaging 16.2 points and 8.9 rebounds, though he's regressed as a shooter after making a promising 27 threes last season. He's skilled and highly athletic, and if he can sell scouts on a jumper during workouts, he could earn himself some hard first-round looks as a potential 2015 sleeper.
• Kentucky junior center Willie Cauley-Stein has been a lot more active offensively of late, averaging 12 points over his last five games. He's even knocked down a jumper here and there. For what it's worth, he just equaled his point total (252) from a year ago. He's still limited, but we've at least seen Cauley-Stein's ball skills improve.
• Wisconsin junior wing Sam Dekker followed up a career-high 22-point performance by making just 1-of-8 shots against Minnesota on Saturday afternoon. His three-point percentage has also dipped below 34. While he still offers role-player potential, he hasn't done much this year to build his NBA case. The fact he's shooting below 70 percent from the line again is also unsettling.