Why 2015 Is a Make-or-Break Year for Les Miles

Les Miles has been a good coach for LSU. But has he been good enough? 2015 might be the year we get our answer. 

The Tigers head into the long offseason with no clear answer at quarterback and a new defensive coordinator, Kevin Steele. That's not an ideal place to be. 

Certainly, expectations for LSU will be tempered. How great (or overrated) the SEC West is is a discussion for another time, but the entire division went bowling a year ago. The point being, it can be easy to get shuffled into the middle of the pack. 

Another year like 2014—LSU went 8-5—and Miles will be feeling the pressure. 

Of course, say this for Miles: He's been a consistent winner at LSU. In 10 seasons, the Tigers have averaged 10.3 wins per year. Since 2008, that number has dropped slightly to 9.8—still an average most programs would salivate over. Under Miles, eight wins has been the floor for LSU. 

However, LSU has won just one SEC West (and SEC) title since taking home the national championship in 2007-08. Compare that to a pair of divisional titles in Miles' first three years from 2005-07. 

Can Miles get his team back to those better years? Here's what he's facing. 

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Problems on Offense

Watching LSU move the ball over the past seven years has been, at times, like watching a T-Rex try to pick something up off of the ground. 

The Tigers were especially cringe-worthy last year with the 116th-best passing offense (162.9 yards per game) out of 128 Division I Football Bowl Subdivision teams. Neither Anthony Jennings nor Brandon Harris managed to solidify himself as the go-to guy at quarterback. 

Not surprisingly, other offensive issues stemmed from that. LSU wasn't good at all at converting third downs—just 39.9 percent—and had practically no explosiveness or big plays. 

LSU's strength on offense for several years has been in its ground game. Running back Leonard Fournette, who rushed for 1,034 yards and 10 touchdowns, is already developing into a star. What holds the Tigers back from being truly dangerous is a legitimate quarterback. B/R's Ray Glier explored this quarterback quagmire in greater depth last week. 

Here are the numbers since 2008, both at the quarterback and team level. Warning: They're not suited for small children. 

Year	Quarterback	Passer Rating	SEC Rank
2008	Jarrett Lee	116.92	No. 6
2009	Jordan Jefferson	137.18	No. 5
2010	Jordan Jefferson	114.65	No. 11
2011	Jordan Jefferson	N/A	N/A
2012	Zach Mettenberger	128.34	No. 11
2013	Zach Mettenberger	171.45	No. 2
2014	Anthony Jennings	118.33	No. 10

Year	Passing Off.	Rushing Off.	Total Off.	SEC Rank	National Rank
2008	201.3 YPG	166.77 YPG	368.1 YPG	No. 5	No. 55
2009	181.8 YPG	122.77 YPG	304.5 YPG	No. 12	No. 112
2010	155.6 YPG	187.54 YPG	343.2 YPG	No. 11	No. 86
2011	152.5 YPG	202.57 YPG	355.1 YPG	No. 6	No. 86
2012	200.5 YPG	173.7 YPG	374.2 YPG	No. 10	No. 87
2013	251 YPG	202.3 YPG	453.3 YPG	No. 7	No. 35
2014	162.9 YPG	224.5 YPG	387.5 YPG	No. 9	No. 80

It might be nothing more than puffery, but Miles believes that quarterback play will get better. "We would think that we’re through the quarterback misery," he told Ross Dellenger of The Advocate. 

It's something that's probably never been uttered before, but JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flynn aren't walking through that door. That's a problem. 

Quarterbacks tend to get more praise, blame and general attention than they deserve, but the play from under center last year was an undeniable problem. If LSU, the '15 edition, looks the same, then there's been no progress. 

Zach Mettenberger was a Band-Aid that briefly covered the wound, but it's open again. LSU hasn't consistently developed even manageable quarterbacks in a long time. 

Problems on Defense?

It's clear by now that LSU has won more often than not in spite of its offense, not because of it. While that kind of imbalance can be frustrating, it can still technically work.

And it did work because of defensive coordinator John Chavis. Since 2009, Chavis' first season in Baton Rouge, LSU has finished with a top-25 scoring defense each year. 

The question is whether that imbalance is sustainable. 

In January, Chavis left to take the same position with divisional foe Texas A&M. The Aggies are reportedly giving him more money—Glenn Guilbeau of The Times previously reported that Chavis wanted a raise from $1.3 million a year to $1.7 million a year—but on paper, it was a lateral move. 

Jim Kleinpeter of The Times-Picayune reported that one of the many reasons why Chavis wanted a fresh start involved frustrations with offensive production (or lack thereof): 

"

Chavis' frustrations reached a crescendo this season when LSU finished first in the SEC in total defense, No. 8 in the nation and second in scoring defense. LSU was 11^th in total offense and last in passing offense in the SEC, resulting in an 8-5 record, tied for the worst in coach Les Miles' 10 seasons.

In the past four seasons, Chavis' LSU defenses finished no worse than No. 15.

"

Coaches move around frequently, sometimes for the exact same title elsewhere. It's part of the business. 

But whatever the case is here, LSU has lost one of the finest defensive minds in college football. Miles didn't just lose a game, he lost the best asset he had. There's meaning in that too. 

The additions of Steele and defensive line coach/uber recruiter Ed Orgeron are critical for Miles' future. The last time Steele coached a defense, Clemson gave up 70 points to West Virginia in the Orange Bowl. 

Steele deserves the opportunity to prove himself, but defense was the one thing keeping LSU in the conversation for SEC West titles. Ultimately, one of the things head coaches are judged on is the hires they make. 

2015 may not be a year in which Miles gets fired if he doesn't meet expectations. However, it could be the year when the countdown clock officially starts ticking—and when it becomes abundantly clear that the good just isn't good enough anymore. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.