All-Star Break Arriving at Right Time for Weary Golden State Warriors
Don't be fooled by the Golden State Warriors' Western Conference-leading record and NBA-best efficiency stats.
This team needs a break in a bad way. Fortunately, it's set to receive just that.
The NBA lengthened its All-Star break to a full week this season, and the Dubs have even longer than that to catch their breath. After Wednesday's road tilt with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State won't return to action until its nationally televised matchup with the San Antonio Spurs on Feb. 20.
Despite winning five of their last six games, the Warriors have seemed a bit sluggish of late. For only the second time in 2014-15, Golden State has suffered three losses over a 10-game stretch. Even some of its wins haven't been all that impressive.
The Warriors weathered a 24-4 first-quarter deficit to the Dallas Mavericks on Feb. 4 before riding Stephen Curry's season-high 51 points to a 128-114 victory. Warriors coach Steve Kerr credited that victory to Curry's realization that he had "to put the Superman cape on," per ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss.
Kerr said his team's 106-92 win over the 10-42 New York Knicks on Saturday "was tough to watch," per ESPN New York's Ohm Youngmisuk, with the coach bluntly grading his group's performance as "horrible." When the Warriors eked out an 89-84 victory over the transparently tanking Philadelphia 76ers on Monday, Kerr admitted Golden State's low-fuel light had illuminated.
"It just feels like right now we're running on fumes," Kerr said, per Dave Zeitlin of The Associated Press. "... It wasn't pretty. There wasn't much we did well."
Fatigue is a factor in every 82-game trek, but all of these players appear to be hitting the wall at the same exact time.
All-Star guard Klay Thompson has averaged 19 points on 37 percent shooting in his last four games. Curry, a 48.3 percent shooter on the season, has converted only 42.5 percent of his attempts during his last 10 outings. Harrison Barnes, who cleared 15 points six times in the first six weeks of the season, hasn't hit that mark since Jan. 16.
Uber-valuable forward Draymond Green, who's shooting just 38.8 percent his last nine games, left Monday's win with a sprained ankle and did not return, per Comcast SportsNet's Monte Poole. Interior anchor Andrew Bogut has looked a step slower than usual.
The grind of the NBA season is getting to the Warriors. Tired legs haven't helped their shooting percentages, and the demand for a razor-sharp focus to survive on the top is doing its own damage.
"I think their legs are tired, but I think their minds are tired, too," Kerr said, per Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle. "We're taking bad shots. We're taking quick shots."
The Warriors had a sizzling .850 winning percentage over their first 40 games, but that number has dropped to .700 during their last 10. And that isn't the only area where they are struggling to resemble their former selves.
Make no mistake, the Warriors have posted elite marks even during this 10-game "lull." A plus-9.3 net efficiency rating is still more than 1.5 points per 100 possessions better than the second ranked team (Atlanta Hawks, plus-7.2).
But Golden State isn't measuring itself with the standard of its contemporaries. The Warriors' league-best plus-11.1 point differential is historically significant.
"Since the ABA-NBA merger, only four teams have outscored their opposition by a double-figure average (the Bulls in 1991-92, 1995-96 and 1996-97 and the 2007-08 Boston Celtics)," wrote Warriors.com's Brian Witt. "All four won the NBA championship."
The Dubs have dominated at a level the NBA has rarely seen. So, yes, it is appropriate to raise a few warning flags when their greatness drops down to really good-ness.
There are, however, some logical reasons behind the slippage.
For one, Golden State just finished its fifth game in seven nights, a stretch that spanned across both coasts. That doesn't excuse the level of performance, but might help explain why it's taking place.
Also, the Warriors play a demanding style under Kerr. Offensively, this group stays in constant attack mode, stressing the importance of pace and perpetual motion.
"Kerr's style has flavors of the triangle offense from his days playing for Phil Jackson in Chicago, the pace-and-space attack of Gregg Popovich in San Antonio and the uptempo schemes assistant coach Alvin Gentry ran when Kerr was the general manager in Phoenix," noted Antonio Gonzalez of The Associated Press.
Defensively, the movement doesn't diminish. Everyone has to be focused, engaged and active, a checklist that makes for some deceptive odometer readings.
"My 32, 33 minutes a game right now feels about like 40 last year," Curry told NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper. "It's a tough task if you want to play at the level every single night that I expect, the coaches expect and teammates expect. That's a big deal."
So too is a mental grind unlike any the franchise has ever experienced.
The 41-9 record is the organization's highest ever at the 50-game mark. The Warriors have only once finished a season with a .700-plus winning percentage. Their current .820 percentage would shatter their previous best (.720 in 1975-76).
And all of this is taking place in a conference that looks historically loaded. The eight current playoff teams in the West have won a combined 67.3 percent of their games. The Dubs have a .781 winning percentage in intraconference clashes.
They have to expertly handle something that's never before been in their grasp. That brings a host of challenges all to itself.
"Unprecedented success leads to unprecedented scrutiny, which leads to unprecedented demands, which raises stress levels all around," noted Poole.
The Warriors badly need the upcoming break. It's not just about refilling those depleted fuel tanks—though, it's hard to overstate the importance of that aspect—it's also about briefly stepping back from the pressure-packed life at the top.
Teams have peaked too early before. One only need look back at the 2013-14 Indiana Pacers for evidence of that (33-7 in first 40 games, 23-19 over next 42, eliminated during the Eastern Conference Finals).
Golden State needs to get its health, energy and focus for what should be a lengthy playoff run. A week-plus respite is exactly what the basketball doctors ordered for the winded Warriors.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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