Bleacher Report's MLB Experts Make Key 2015 Spring Training Predictions

It's been a long, cold and dark winter for baseball fans. Well, that and pretty action-packed as well, which isn't so bad.

Either way, though, it's coming to an end. With pitchers and catchers due to report in a couple of weeks, spring training is upon us. That's our cue to go into Hyper-Exaggerated Excitement Mode, for it is from there and only there that we can do what needs to be done:

Make predictions for the spring season.

Joining me in making predictions for spring training are my fellow B/R MLB experts: Jason Catania, Mike Rosenbaum, Jacob Shafer and Anthony Witrado. We have a list of 10 questions to tackle, ranging from key first impressions to breakout performers to disappointing and surprising teams.

Step into the box whenever you're ready.

Which Big Offseason Acquisition Will Make the Strongest First Impression?

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Will it be Jon Lester, or someone else?

Catania: Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Many of the candidates here are veterans of several big league seasons already, which is why my choice is a first-year player who very well could wind up being the next in a long line of big-money Cuban sensations: Yasmany Tomas. There will be all sorts of intrigue surrounding the 24-year-old—from his story of how he defected, to his readiness for MLB, to his prodigious power, to whether he can handle third base when most consider him an outfielder. Subplots, anyone?

Rosenbaum: Yoenis Cespedes, Detroit Tigers

Cespedes must finally feel wanted after the offseason trade to the Tigers, but he's also set to become a free agent following the season. All signs point to a big 2015 performance—one that begins this spring.

Rymer: Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs' new $155 million man is coming off a 2014 season that saw him reach a new height of pitching brilliance on his way to a 2.46 ERA, so he's the obvious pick here. But Lester also owns a 0.75 ERA in his last two springs and notably embraced a mentor role last year. If it's business as usual this spring, they'll be loving him even more on the North Side.

Shafer: Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox

Pitchers tend to be ahead of hitters early in the spring. That gives Samardzija, snagged this winter in a trade with the Oakland A's, a golden opportunity to show Sox fans what's in store as he teams with Chris Sale to form arguably the deadliest lefty-righty combo in the game. Oh, and did I mention he's entering his final season before free agency?

Witrado: Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays

It is incredibly difficult to make these predictions, because March performances are virtually no indication of regular-season success. Still, Donaldson is a player with plenty to prove after the Oakland A’s traded him with four years of control remaining. Games in March should be the first stage of Donaldson’s MVP candidacy.

Which Rookie Manager Will Make the Strongest First Impression?

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How about new Twins manager Paul Molitor?

Catania: Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins

Molitor is likely to make the biggest initial impression, considering that he's managing a team he used to play for and is taking over a position that has had very little turnover since 1987. Molitor's task won't be easy, though, as he's going to have to show he can work with, teach and integrate the young core players—like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer and Jose Berrios, among others—around which the Twins are hoping to build in 2015 and beyond. 

Rosenbaum: Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins

Molitor is one of my all-time favorite hitters. Beyond that, the work he's done with some of the team's younger players the past few springs (such as Sano) has made positive impacts on their careers, and I think that gives him more of a head start than people realize.

Rymer: Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays

What will help is that Cash is going to be at the controls of a team that's more solid than most think. The Rays have lost a lot of pieces in recent months, but Baseball Prospectus may have it right in viewing them as a legit AL East contender. Aside from that, Cash's keen baseball mind, people skills and willingness to embrace analytics make him a good fit to step into Joe Maddon's shoes.

Shafer: Jeff Banister, Texas Rangers

Banister isn't a household name, but he combines a penchant for analytics with extensive experience in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization, most recently as the Bucs' bench coach. Plus, provided the roster-wide injury bolt doesn't strike twice, the Rangers are due for a significant bounce-back no matter who's at the helm.

Witrado: A.J. Hinch, Houston Astros

Hinch is not inheriting a team on the decline. Far from it, as the Houston Astros made a 19-game improvement from 2013 to 2014, and it can be easily argued that their roster is better entering 2015. A team, and organization, on the upswing will help Hinch make a strong impression.

What Will Be the Biggest Transaction of the Spring?

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James Shields has to sign sometime. Why not during spring training?

Catania: James Shields Signs

At this point, the safe pick is on Shields, who has yet to sign anywhere and could be forced to wait until pitchers and catchers start reporting, depending on how his market (or lack thereof) is shaping up (or not). While I would like to see one of the other big-name starting pitchers get traded—like, say, Cole Hamels of the Phillies—I just don't know if that's going to happen by the end of spring training.

Rosenbaum: Jeff Samardzija Signs an Extension

The White Sox and Samardzija have both thrown around the idea of a long-term extension after his acquisition from the A's. In fact, it was just the other day that the right-hander said he's open to the idea. I would think the White Sox would want to get this done sooner rather than later, because the Shark's value could skyrocket in his walk year.

Rymer: Yoan Moncada Signs

Shields could sign very soon, and I just can't see Hamels, Jordan Zimmermann or Jonathan Papelbon being moved, so let's go with young Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada. He was just cleared to sign, but the bidding war for his services could drag on for a while as his people look to squeeze every last signing bonus dollar out of prospective suitors. And given his immense upside, they should be able to get tens of millions of those in the end.

Shafer: Yoan Moncada Signs

Assuming Moncada isn't snatched up before pitchers and catchers report, his signing will be one of spring training's biggest stories. It says here he's headed for the New York Yankees, who will break their winter-long streak of financial restraint and go all in for the 19-year-old Cuban phenom.

Witrado: James Shields Signs

This is not a prediction for what team will sign him or for how much, but more so that any team that does ink Shields will dramatically be upgraded. Whether it is a power like the Los Angeles Dodgers or a team desperate for October baseball like the Toronto Blue Jays, Shields will give any club a substantial boost.

Which 2014 Stud Will Look Primed for a Regression?

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SEATTLE, WA - DECEMBER 04: Nelson Cruz of the Seattle Mariners poses for a photo following his introductory press conference at Safeco Field on December 4, 2014 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Catania: Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers

Can't you just see it now? Expected to take on a much larger role as the star driving the Dodgers' revamped offense with Matt Kemp now down the coast, Puig face-plants in spring and the questions begin—and seemingly never stop—about whether the mercurial Cuban stud is up for the challenge. Spoiler alert: Puig will be, even if he doesn't look like it in March.

Rosenbaum: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves

Kimbrel is one of the few big names remaining in Atlanta, as well as likely the next-in-line star when it comes to future trades. The Braves have a lot of young arms to look at this spring, so it'll be interesting to see how often they use their trusted closer.

Rymer: Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals

No star was more overlooked than Roark in 2014, but I wonder about his immediate future. His 2.65 second-half ERA masked a decline in strikeouts and ground balls, as well as downward-trending velocity (see Brooks Baseball). And with the addition of Max Scherzer making him the odd man out in Washington's starting pitching depth chart, his usage this spring could cause problems.

Shafer: Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners

As I've pointed out, Cruz's big 2014 season was skewed by a scalding-hot May when he hit .339 with 13 home runs. Meanwhile, in June, July and August combined, he hit just .214 with 15 big flies. Add in lingering performance-enhancing drug doubts and a move to cavernous Safeco Field once spring ends, and the soon-to-be 35-year-old has "regression" written all over him.

Witrado: Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates

It is difficult not to like Harrison or his rise from sparingly used utility man to one of the National League’s more valuable position players. However, his BABIP (.353) for last season was 100 points higher than it was in 2013 (.253) and 53 points higher than the MLB average. His chances of sustaining that rate and making another run at the NL batting title seem slim.

Which 2014 Dud Will Look Primed for a Rebound?

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Don't forget about Prince Fielder.

Catania: Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers

Let's pick an injured star, which is to say, let's pick a Rangers player. And in that case, the call here is Prince Fielder, who has been saying he's over his neck surgery and primed for a return to his former production. After a disastrous 2014, something has to go Texas' way in 2015, and Fielder is going to look something close to his old self heading into the season.

Rosenbaum: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Votto missed 100 games in 2014 with quadriceps injuries, including the final 76 games of the regular season. Recent reports suggest he's completely healthy heading into spring training, and I'm willing to trust in his career .310/.417/.533 batting line.

Rymer: Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians

There are plenty of candidates for this spot, but Salazar interests me the most. He was rightfully sent down after his first eight starts of 2014 but eventually came back and pitched well down the stretch. Since that involved his velocity coming back and his splitter missing bats again, look out.

Shafer: Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

San Francisco may well ease Cain back into action as the right-hander recovers from elbow and ankle surgery. Remember, though: As much as he's accomplished in his big league career, Cain is still just 30 years old. Unless he suffers a setback, he'll slot right next to Madison Bumgarner at the top of the defending champs' rotation.

Witrado: Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers

Fielder was only a dud because a herniated disk in his neck limited him to 42 game and meek production. In a home park like the one in Arlington, and with health on his side, Fielder is primed to rebound as the offensive juggernaut and picture of durability he has been known as for the majority of his career.

Which Established Player Will Look Primed for a Breakout?

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Beware the sweet-swinging Christian Yelich.

Catania: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox

It may be a stretch to call Xander Bogaerts "established" when he's a 22-year-old kid with but one full season—and a poor one at that—on his resume. But now that he has some experience, has his natural shortstop position all to himself and is surrounded by what should be a much-improved and very dangerous lineup, Bogaerts' breakout could start in spring.

Rosenbaum: Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins

Yelich is poised to have a monster year atop the Marlins' new-and-improved batting order. He's entering his age-23 season with more than 900 big league plate appearances under his belt, and the hit tool and on-base skills are already refined.

Rymer: Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

If you don't think the Blue Jays have an ace, keep an eye on this guy. Stroman had a 3.29 ERA as a starter in his debut season, and by the end of it, he had discovered a two-seam fastball that FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan praised as being Roy Halladay-like. Throw in five other quality pitches, strong mechanics and good command, and Stroman could begin dazzling this spring and not stop until season's end.

Shafer: Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

Before a series of freak injuries put him on the shelf, Belt was barreling toward a breakout last year. When he went down May 9 with a broken thumb, he was leading the Giants with nine home runs and sporting an .815 OPS. This spring is Belt's chance to put last year's DL stints behind him and prove he belongs among baseball's top-tier first basemen. 

Witrado: Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals

This is something of a long shot since Hosmer has been a full-time big leaguer for four years and has been quite average offensively (104 OPS-plus), but he is still just 25 and coming off a stellar postseason. Steamer projects a jump of more than two wins for Hosmer (2.4), but only because he was so bad last season (0.2). Here is to hoping October success and confidence leads to a 2015 breakout—finally—starting in spring training.

Which Prospect Will Steal the Show?

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Only one vote for Kris Bryant, surprisingly.

Catania: Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets

The reigning minor league home run leader is just about ready to join the Cubs and is going to be a popular pick, so I'll let my colleagues wax erotic about him. As an alternative, I'll choose Noah Syndergaard, as the big, hard-throwing right-hander will make the Mets look silly for ultimately deciding to send him back to Triple-A when they just can't find a way to fit him into their Opening Day rotation.

Rosenbaum: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers

Corey Seager has been stealing the show everywhere he's gone in the last year: High-A, Double-A, the Arizona Fall League. Next up? Spring training.

Rymer: Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs

Kris Bryant is absolutely deserving of the spotlight, but Russell is capable of stealing it from him. Baseball Prospectus has him ranked higher than Bryant, and his reputation as a true shortstop with a promising hit tool is solid justification for that. That's the kind of player who could stand out during the spring, and Russell will have an even easier time doing so if he picks up where he left off in the power department.

Shafer: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

An obvious pick. But combine Bryant's raw power with a desire to stick on the Opening Day roster—arbitration clock be damned—and you've got a recipe for a torrid spring...and some seriously amped Cubs fans. 

Witrado: Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers

This was a tight call between Pederson and Bryant, but the fact that Bryant may not start in the big leagues and that his younger lineup is more prone to team-wide slumps gives Pederson an advantage. He will be in a lineup filled with veterans not counting on him to be an MVP candidate. Hitting low in the Dodgers lineup and being surrounded by quality vets like Adrian Gonzalez and Jimmy Rollins will help Pederson’s transition and progression.

What Will Be the Best Position Battle, and Who Will Win?

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Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo will face stiff competition in the Red Sox's outfield battle.

Catania: Boston Red Sox Outfield

While Hanley Ramirez is locked into left, the other two spots in Boston's outfield are somewhat up in the air, although the favorites—at least based on talent and upside—are youngsters Rusney Castillo in center and Mookie Betts in right. That still leaves veterans Shane Victorino, Allen Craig and Daniel Nava to put pressure on the rookie Castillo and Betts, who's entering his first full season. My gut tells me they roll with Castillo, Ramirez and Victorino and either use Betts as a utility guy or send him to Triple-A until injury or ineffectiveness bites Victorino.

Rosenbaum: Chicago Cubs Third Base

Third base on the North Side of the Chicago appears to be up for grabs heading into spring training. Offseason acquisition Tommy La Stella and Mike Olt represent the leading candidates (by default, basically), but the door seems to be open for uber-prospect Kris Bryant to at least force the Cubs to make a difficult decision. 

Rymer: Boston Red Sox Outfield

Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe says the Red Sox's plan is to use Ramirez in left, Castillo in center and Betts in right. I can see that plan being disrupted by Castillo not hitting and/or Betts not fielding, which would open the door for Victorino, Nava, Craig, Jackie Bradley Jr. or Brock Holt. But I'll be boring and buy into Castillo's and Betts' respective upsides and pick them to win out in the end.

Shafer: Boston Red Sox Outfield

Ramirez is a lock in left. If Cuban import Castillo snags another spot, that leaves one position for a gaggle of contenders, most notably two-time All-Star Victorino and touted rookie Betts. Betts looks like the favorite, but expect the scrappy Victorino to arrive with a chip on his shoulder. In fact, I'll go so far as to predict the Flyin' Hawaiian wins the job out of spring, though Betts will almost certainly sit atop Boston's batting order some time in 2015.

Witrado: Boston Red Sox Outfield

The Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders but, aside from Ramirez in left field, no clear sign as to who will play. That leaves about six weeks for six other guys to find their way into two spots in what might be the most scrutinized position battle of spring training. In the end, Castillo will be the Opening Day center fielder and Victorino will be in right.

Which Team Will Look Worse Than Advertised?

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Are the new-look Padres any good?

Catania: San Diego Padres

The Padres have made as many moves as any club this winter, including bringing aboard offensive-minded players like Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Derek Norris. Alas, with so many new faces—and so much questionable defense—in the fold, there's a good chance San Diego will need some time to jell and look like a cohesive team.

Rosenbaum: Miami Marlins

The Marlins underwent an overhaul during the offseason, bringing in a wave of new talent on both sides of the ball in support of their decision to make Giancarlo Stanton the richest player in the history of the sport. I wouldn't be surprised if it took the team some time to mesh and figure out what it has. 

Rymer: San Diego Padres

I'm caught between seeing the Padres as a contender in the NL West and seeing them as a team that has plenty of weaknesses, even despite their offseason overhaul. My fear is that the weaknesses will show through this spring, as their poor outfield defense, infield and rotation back end may not be able to hide behind their new-found star power.

Shafer: Miami Marlins

Giancarlo Stanton, playing for the first time since a pitch to the face ended his 2014 campaign, will pick up right where he left off, mashing baseballs into the stratosphere. Expect mixed results from the rest of the new-look Marlins, including first baseman Michael Morse and right-handed starter Mat Latos, who each battled injuries last year, and speedy second baseman Dee Gordon, who made his first All-Star team with the Los Angeles Dodgers but cooled off considerably in the second half.

Witrado: Washington Nationals

It is not uncommon for teams with World Series expectations and virtually no position battles to be mediocre in spring training. Starting pitchers have specific work plans, and the regular position players will not see a ton of plate appearances, as this team is gunning for regular-season success that will bleed into October. For the Nationals, spring training is strictly for conditioning.

Which Team Will Look Better Than Advertised?

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You might want to think twice about underestimating Bob Melvin's A's.

Catania: Oakland A's

The Athletics, who are right there with the Padres for the most active, roster-turnovering team around. Oakland's band of scrappy, underrated players will look a lot more solid than folks are expecting after an offseason of change, most of which has been heavily criticized (including by yours truly). Once the real games begin, though, we'll see how much of that carries over.

Rosenbaum: Kansas City Royals

The Royals offense always shows ridiculous power during spring training, only to go cold once the regular season starts. I'm not saying that the 2014 AL champions won't have another strong season; just don't believe they've suddenly found their collective power stroke when the balls are flying. 

Rymer: New York Mets

Matt Harvey is rejoining a rotation that already had Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler and Bartolo Colon. And as easy as it is to downplay the Mets offense, it only had below-average hitters at two positions last year and now has Michael Cuddyer. I don't know about the 10-win upswing that Mets general manager Sandy Alderson sees, but I can definitely see some good vibes coming from Mets camp this spring.

Shafer: Cleveland Indians

FanGraphs' Mike Petriello' named the Tribe his "far too early sleeper team" back in November, so maybe it's a stretch to say Cleveland has been completely ignored. But with all the focus heaped on the Detroit Tigers and revamped Chicago White Sox, not to mention the defending American League champion Royals, it's the Indians who could make the strongest spring impression. Key stat: Last season, their starting rotation led all of baseball with 11 WAR in the second half.

Witrado: Oakland A's

Oakland has position battles in its rotation, at catcher, shortstop and left field. Those battles could be intense and lead to good spring production, but carrying that into the regular season will be the question for Oakland.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.