Why 5-Star Uber Athlete Kyler Murray Should Ultimately Choose Baseball

Kyler Murray's most important decision may not come within 24 hours by fax machine. It might, however, involve more money than he could ever dream about. 

Thanks to a tweet last week, we know that Murray, a 5-star dual-threat quarterback in the Class of 2015, will sign with Texas A&M. What will be interesting to watch is whether he suits up for the Aggies. 

Cam Smith of USA Today wrote that the possibility of playing professional baseball could very well interfere with Murray's commitment to A&M. While Murray is a Texas high school football legend—he was 43-0 in three seasons and won three state titles—the other part of his legacy is that he's a highly touted baseball player. 

Per MLB.com, Murray is the 29th overall prospect eligible for this year's draft. 

In an interview with Smith, MLB Network’s Jim Callis said that Murray's first-round potential makes for an intriguing, and potentially lucrative, situation:

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He has a chance to go in the first round (of the Major League Baseball entry draft) this spring. He’s the X factor of this year’s draft. He can really run, put the bat on the ball, but there’s still some mystery about him. I don’t think he’s played as much shortstop for his high school team, and scouts haven’t figured out why that is. Usually the best athlete with the best arm plays shortstop. But that won’t matter if he has a great spring and shows he can play shortstop and shows a willingness to sign. He could be a first-round pick.

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Murray isn't the first two-sport athlete facing this dilemma, and he won't be the last. Jameis Winston, John Elway, Russell Wilson, Bo Jackson—these are just some of the many names who could have made pro baseball their priority. In Jackson's case, he thrived in pro football and baseball. 

But Murray isn't projected to be some late-round selection; he has a real future in baseball as a position player if he wants it. Murray's skill set—speed, especially—begs a question that isn't asked nearly enough: Why don't more players like him choose baseball as a concentration?

Other than popularity—and, really, we're talking about the NFL because no other sport in this country competes with the league in terms of viewership—the advantages of playing baseball over football almost make it a no-brainer decision on paper. 

The easiest thing to point to is the money. Unless the Ed O'Bannon decision is reversed—the NCAA is appealing last year's ruling—college football players will soon be able to receive some compensation for their name/image/likeness rights. However, that amount will max out at no less than $5,000. Schools are not required to pay out, and it's unlikely that participating schools would agree to a cap higher than that. 

By comparison, Alex Blandino, the 29th pick of last year's MLB draft, signed a contract with the Cincinnati Reds worth $1.79 million. Additionally, MLB has no salary cap (only luxury taxes for high payrolls), and average earnings for players in 2012 were $3.2 million, per Forbes.com. 

Sport	Salary
NBA	$5.15 million
MLB	$3.2 million
NHL	$2.4 million
NFL	$1.9 million

Because of the NFL rookie wage scale, serious money isn't made until a player's second contract—and many won't ever get that far. That means Murray, if he's fortunate enough, could have to wait as many as eight or nine years before he really earns the big bucks. 

And because Murray probably isn't getting any taller—he's listed at 5'11"—he'll forever have to answer questions about his size as a quarterback. It's not the only factor, but it is a factor in where he'll be drafted. That affects rookie contract numbers. 

There are exceptions, of course. Wilson and Drew Brees are among the most successful signal-callers in the league at 6'0" and under. Johnny Manziel, a former A&M quarterback, measures in at around 6'0" and was a first-round selection. 

And, to be clear, Murray is a legit quarterback prospect. He was as impressive throwing the ball as anyone when I saw him in person at last spring's Elite 11 camp at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. 

The short story, though—no pun intended—is that those types of players are the exceptions to the rule. 

LM Otero/Associated Press

And, because of his size, Murray will have to be extra careful with his approach to playing football. Yes, baseball and football present their own injury risks. However, the longer Murray plays football and the higher up he goes, the more difficult it is to be 5'11" and under 200 pounds. 

Along those lines, the biggest threats to football's future are concussions and the long-term health problems they cause. The NFL is in the middle of settlement discussions involving class-action lawsuits over concussions. Not helping matters were reports that New England receiver Julian Edelman potentially sustained a concussion during Sunday's Super Bowl against Seattle but played anyway. (A report from ESPN Boston claims Edelman was cleared by team doctors.) 

So if the benefits of playing baseball on financial and longevity scales make sense, why wouldn't someone like Murray choose baseball?

It's a complex answer from the inside out. Ultimately, he may choose baseball, and it's just a matter of whether he does it in a few months or a few years. 

"I am definitely considering the draft," Murray told Clint Longenecker of Baseball America last August. "It just depends on this spring and how things play out."

Murray's family history in baseball may prove most influential. Both his father, Kevin, and uncle, Calvin, played at least briefly beyond the college level.

Of course, Murray could always play baseball and football at A&M. There's something to be said for enjoying the college experience while growing as an athlete in the two sports you love most. Maybe Murray simply loves football more. 

But if the two options are presented to him, there's only one that makes a ton of sense. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports.