Notre Dame Football: Should the Irish Run More in 2015?

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — From start to finish in its 31-28 victory over LSU in the Music City Bowl, Notre Dame featured a run-based offense directed by quarterbacks Malik Zaire and Everett Golson.

In total, the Irish rumbled 51 times for 263 yards and three touchdowns, boasting a grueling ground game against the Tigers.

For some Irish fans, it raised a recurring question: Why doesn’t Notre Dame do that—gash teams with a sustained running attack—more often? Irish head coach Brian Kelly was asked after the game if a run-heavy offense can be Notre Dame’s identity moving forward.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

“We had to have a game plan for today,” he said. “We know what we have with both quarterbacks. ... We’re going to continue to utilize [Zaire’s] strength. He’s a very good runner of the football.”

The game plan certainly worked against LSU. But should Notre Dame run the ball more in 2015? Let’s start with the data.

Kelly is 34-5 in his five seasons at Notre Dame when the Irish rush for more yards than their opponent.

Before the Florida State game in October, Notre Dame had compiled a streak of 26 consecutive games in which it did not lose when it tallied at least 30 rushing attempts.

Notre Dame is 33-3 since the start of the 2002 season when it gains at least 200 rushing yards.

Compelling evidence? Maybe. But not so fast.

Of course, such rushing statistics can easily be skewed in many cases, as teams that are leading—comfortably or not—may choose to run more and milk the clock.

We’ll analyze the run-pass breakdowns of other elite teams across the country in comparison to that of Notre Dame, bearing in mind that such successful teams could be more likely to run when leading.

Of the Top 10 teams in the final AP poll, nine averaged more rushing attempts per game than Notre Dame, per CFBStats.com. Only Florida State, with Jameis Winston leading the offense, rushed less than the Irish.

Team	Rushing Attempts Per Game	National Rank
1. Ohio State	46	16
2. Oregon	42.93	36
3. TCU	39.15	63
4. Alabama	40.50	46 (tie)
5. Michigan State	45.69	17 (tie)
6. Florida State	32.21	113
7. Baylor	47.62	11
8. Georgia Tech	56.43	2
9. Georgia	42.69	40
10. UCLA	42.85	37 (tie)
Notre Dame	37.23	84

Viewed through another prism, Notre Dame had a fairly even run-pass balance in 2014. The Irish ran on 49.64 percent of their plays. Eight of the Top 10 teams in the nation rushed more often than Notre Dame, per TeamRankings.com.

Team	Percentage of Run Plays	National Rank
1. Ohio State	60.36%	19
2. Oregon	56.96%	35
3. TCU	48.08%	97
4. Alabama	55.29%	43
5. Michigan State	58.43%	27
6. Florida State	45.07%	109
7. Baylor	52.49%	63
8. Georgia Tech	79.05%	4
9. Georgia	62.36%	16
10. UCLA	53.97%	53
Notre Dame	49.64%	85

Again, it bears repeating that correlation doesn’t imply causation here. These teams aren’t necessarily winning because they’re running more.

So sliced another way, we can consider Notre Dame’s propensity to run the ball on first down throughout the season. Running on first down could be indicative of Kelly’s commitment to the ground game on any given Saturday.

Opponent	First-Down Run Percentage
Rice	56.7%
Michigan	59.3%
Purdue	51.4%
Syracuse	53.8%
Stanford	40%
North Carolina	64.1%
Florida State	34.3%
Navy	67.6%
Arizona State	42.1%
Northwestern	57.9%
Louisville	50%
USC	55.2%
LSU	81.3%

Clearly, Kelly was committed to running the ball against the Tigers, opting for the ground on more than 80 percent of the team’s first downs. Notre Dame also remained committed against Navy and piled up 218 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 39 carries. Against North Carolina, too, the Irish eclipsed the 200-yard mark with a 216-yard showing to go along with four scores on the ground.

Finally, we’ll try to somewhat control the numbers here for winning and losing by large margins. For each game in 2014, we’ll compare Notre Dame’s percentage of rushing plays in the first half with that ratio for the entire game.

In theory, the game plan is more likely to still be intact in the first half and the run-pass breakdown is less likely to be skewed by the score of the game.

Opponent	First-Half Run Percentage	Full-Game Run Percentage	Rushing Yards	Result
Rice	51.5%	64.1%	281	Win
Michigan	44.7%	46.2%	54	Win
Purdue	45%	43.6%	139	Win
Syracuse	40%	50%	161	Win
Stanford	38.9%	40%	129	Win
North Carolina	40%	51.9%	216	Win
Florida State	45.1%	36.8%	157	Loss
Navy	51.4%	59.4%	218	Win
Arizona State	39.5%	39.2%	41	Loss
Northwestern	54.8%	50%	211	Loss
Louisville	53.8%	49.1%	99	Loss
USC	31.0%	32.8%	104	Loss
LSU	69.8%	66.2%	263	Win

A look at the numbers shows Notre Dame never really relied on the run against USC. And even though the Trojans put up a quick 35 points before the Irish really settled in, it’s worth noting that Notre Dame dialed up just two runs in its first 10 plays while the game remained scoreless.

The Irish also went into games against Syracuse, Stanford and North Carolina with more of a pass-happy approach.

No statistic is perfect here when analyzing the rushing game, and it’s difficult to determine cause and effect with choices that have so many variables.

The shape of Notre Dame’s offense in 2015 is still to be determined.

Once the quarterback position is settled, Kelly could have a better idea of his plan. Zaire certainly appeared more comfortable running the zone read in his extended work against USC and LSU, and running backs Tarean Folston and Greg Bryant will be talented juniors.

It worked against LSU. Can it work for a full season?

All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Mike Monaco is a lead Notre Dame writer for Bleacher Report. Follow @MikeMonaco_ on Twitter.