Bears: Boom-or-Bust Prospects Chicago Should Gamble on in NFL Draft
NFL teams like the Chicago Bears work for weeks and months trying to determine which players will be the best fit for their organization in the NFL draft that runs from April 30 to May 2. Some players can be viewed as safe, meaning teams know what they are going to get if they choose them, but many can be classified as boom-or-bust prospects.
Boom-or-bust prospects are players who have terrific upside but still have plenty of questions marks surrounding their off-field issues, injury history or lack of experience against top-level talent.
Even though safe players might make the most sense for the Bears in this year's draft due to the team's overwhelming need for youth and production on both sides of the football, there are a handful of boom-or-bust prospects who may be too tough to pass up.
There are a few players in this year's draft who are worth gambling on because they have the potential to help the Bears not only this upcoming season but also in the future.
Here are five boom-or-bust prospects the Bears should gamble on in the 2015 NFL draft.
Max Valles, Outside Linebacker, Virginia
1 of 5
After originally saying he was going to return to Virginia next season, outside linebacker/defensive end Max Valles announced he was entering the 2015 draft last month, via CBSSports.com's Dane Brugler:
"#Virginia SLB Max Valles announces via Twitter he's entering the 2015 NFL Draft. Only a redshirt soph. https://t.co/UipHLkAw8I
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) January 6, 2015"
Valles finished the 2014 season with 55 total tackles, nine sacks, one interception and two defensive touchdowns.
Despite his productivity, many felt he would have been better off staying at Virginia for at least another season, including Virginia head coach Mike London.
"Based on the improvement and development he showed the past two years, I felt Max Valles was a player who could really benefit from playing another year of college football," said London, via Doug Doughty of The Roanoke Times. "I believe he was on the verge of blossoming into a dominant player."
Now it will be up to an NFL team to help develop Valles into a dominant player.
At 6'5" and 240 pounds, Valles has terrific size but is viewed as sort of a tweener. He played both outside linebacker and defensive end at Virginia, but he is likely best suited to play on the outside in a 3-4 scheme in the NFL.
DraftBreakdown.com's Joe Marino thinks Valles has upside, but he is still very raw:
"Finalizing my film score on Max Valles. Super raw, terribly inconsistent. Terrific frame & physical upside. Not on the same planet as Harold
— Joe Marino (@TheJoeMarino) January 17, 2015"
With the Bears transitioning over to a 3-4 in 2015, they have a need for pass-rushers with athleticism and the ability to come off the edge. Teams making the jump from a 4-3 to 3-4 do not typically take risks on high-upside, low-floor players like Valles, but considering how badly Chicago needs youth and athleticism on defense, he may end up being a guy the team targets after the first round.
He would not be expected to make a big impact in 2015 or even 2016, but he could be molded into a productive pass-rusher by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and outside linebackers coach Clint Hurtt in the coming years.
Of all the players in this year's draft, Valles may be the biggest boom-or-bust prospect on Chicago's radar come late April/early May.
Brett Hundley, Quarterback, UCLA
2 of 5
UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley surprised many last year when he decided to return for his senior season in 2014, via ESPN's Adam Schefter:
"UCLA QB Brett Hundley, viewed as a potential top-10 pick, plans to return to school for senior season, per sources. Announcement this week.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 5, 2014"
He had just thrown for 3,071 yards with 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions and ran the ball 160 times for 748 yards with 11 touchdowns in 2013 and, like Schefter alluded to in his tweet, was viewed as a potential top-10 pick.
He put up similar passing numbers in 2014—3,155 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and five interceptions—but has been viewed more as a second-round pick heading into this year's draft.
He had an opportunity to bolster his draft stock at the Senior Bowl, but he declined the invitation.
"The main decision was about being healthy and being at 100 percent in order to play in those games," Hundley said about not participating in the Senior Bowl in an appearance on Super Bowl Live, via Bryan Fischer of NFL.com. "After the bowl game, I sat down and talked with my agent, my family, and I just wasn't there yet. I think that's the thing you have to think about before the game."
One reason he has the potential to be a boom-type prospect in the NFL is because of his athleticism and speed. He has the ability to roll out of the pocket and pick up yards down the field and proved he can buy himself time in the pocket.
A big knock on his pro potential is he spent the majority of his time playing in the shotgun, and CBSSports.com's Dane Brugler and Rob Rang both think Hundley has some areas he needs to improve upon, writing:
"Takes virtually every snap from the shotgun and typically relies upon pre-snap reads in a relatively simple offense. Scouts want to see him operate better from the pocket, especially under duress. Has a tendency to drop his eyes and look to run in the face of pressure, even when able to elude the initial defender.
"
The best thing about taking Hundley in the second or third round for the Bears is he will likely have the opportunity to develop for at least one season behind Jay Cutler and will have the chance to learn under offensive coordinator Adam Gase.
Like most quarterbacks, Hundley has his share of warts, but he might be worth the risk because of his athleticism and upside.
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Cornerback, Oregon
3 of 5
Even though the Bears signed Tim Jennings to a long-term deal and drafted Kyle Fuller in the first round last offseason, the team still has a need at the cornerback position heading into 2015.
The team could look to target guys like Washington's Marcus Peters or Florida State's P.J. Williams in the early rounds, but Oregon's Ifo Ekpre-Olomu could be an interesting option in the middle rounds.
Once viewed as someone who could go in the first two rounds, Ekpre-Olomu has seen his stock drop since he suffered a knee injury prior to the College Football Playoff.
Before his injury, there were concerns about his size (5'10", 195 pounds) at the next level.
"He lacks prototype size and relies on vision, timing and hand-eye coordination rather than extraordinary speed or fluidity to shut down opponents," wrote Dane Brugler and Rob Rang of CBSSports.com. "Can be easily tied up by blockers on the perimeter. Perhaps best suited to playing the nickel in the NFL."
Not exactly high praise from Brugler and Rang regarding Ekpre-Olomu's future in the NFL, but what helped put him in the discussion as a potential first-round pick before his injury was his competitiveness and ball skills.
He is not afraid to make a tackle and plays with physicality, especially when asked to jam wide receivers at the line of scrimmage. He finished his four-year career in Eugene with 244 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, nine interceptions and one defensive touchdown.
Unlike many college cornerbacks, he showed an ability to play off-man coverage and does a nice job of keeping opposing wide receivers from creating separation.
Ekpre-Olomu was likely already going to be viewed as a boom-or-bust prospect because of his size, but his knee injury increased his boom-or-bust stock heading into this year's draft.
If the Bears were to draft him in the third or fourth round, he could develop behind Jennings and Fuller while also getting healthy. Once healthy, he could push both corners for starting time if he can show he can handle going up against bigger wide receivers in the NFL.
He has the potential to bust because of his size and knee injury, but he proved in his time at Oregon he has the potential to be a playmaker at the next level. He will not be as big of a risk as some of the other players mentioned, but there appears to be an equal chance between him being a star and him being just mediocre in the NFL.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Mike Davis, Running Back, South Carolina
4 of 5
With so many needs on defense, it is easy to forget the Bears struggled mightily at times last season on offense. While a lot of Chicago's struggles on offense in 2014 could be attributed to Jay Cutler's poor play, the team also went away from running the football.
Matt Forte will once again be the featured back in 2015, but 2014 fourth-round pick Ka'Deem Carey did very little in limited opportunities last season to prove he can handle being the No. 2 running back.
Luckily for the Bears, if they want to find a complement to Forte and someone they can mold into a starter in the future, this year's draft is full of talent at the position.
Guys like Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, Georgia's Todd Gurley and Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah would all be great options for Bears, but it is unlikely the team will use one of their first two draft picks on the position. If it waits until the third round, a boom-or-bust prospect like South Carolina's Mike Davis could be a steal.
Davis burst onto the scene in 2013, rushing for 1,183 yards on 203 attempts with 11 touchdowns. He also hauled in 34 catches for 352 yards. His rushing numbers dropped last season as he racked up 982 yards on 199 carries with nine touchdowns.
He has a good initial burst but lacks true breakaway to speed to get past quicker defensive backs. He was hampered by rib and hamstring issues last season, and there are concerns about whether his body can hold up in the NFL.
"While Davis' talent is clear, there are certainly areas in which he can improve," wrote CBSSports.com's Rob Rang. "Davis wore down [in 2013] and coughed up critical fumbles against UCF and Missouri. While a reliable receiver out of the backfield, too often Davis resorted to dropping a shoulder or a cut-block when pass protecting, rather than facing up defenders."
Despite concerns about his ability to hold up in the NFL and his lack of breakaway speed, he has drawn comparisons to Kansas City's Knile Davis. Just like Knile Davis, Mike Davis struggled with injuries in his final season and will likely drop in the draft because of it.
“It’s the same thing,” a scout told Thayer Evans and Pete Thamel of The Inside Read, via SI.com. “Everybody thought Knile Davis was terrible. He was fumbling the ball. He was kind of not there. Production was down. Team wasn’t good. Now, look he’s making plays.”
He has struggled with fumbles in the past, but he may be worth a look for the Bears in the third round because of his ability to pound the football between the tackles. If he can stay healthy and improve his fumbling issues, he has the ability to take over Forte's job when the soon-to-be 30-year-old moves on from the organization.
Arik Armstead, Defensive End, Oregon
5 of 5
In addition to needing pass-rushers at the outside linebacker position, the Bears need help along the defensive line, particularly at the 5-technique defensive end position.
Lamarr Houston will likely lock down one of the starting 5-technique spots in 2015, but the team does not have anyone else on the roster who has the size and ability to play the position. The Bears could look to free agency to add depth to the position, but Oregon's Arik Armstead may be too difficult to pass up in the draft.
His athleticism and potential may help him become a first-round pick, but he should be a consideration for the Bears if he is still available when the team selects 39th overall in the second round.
He is quick and powerful off the line of scrimmage and has elite size (6'8" and 290 pounds) for the position. Despite his length and quickness, there are still questions about his ability to put it all together at the next level.
"I see the power in his hands and all of his tools, but I don't see the production or the consistent push that I feel like I should see from him," a Pac-12 area scout said about Armstead, via NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. "He could end up being a monster, but you have to understand that what you get right now is just a big athlete with some upside."
On the flip side, an NFL talent evaluator who spoke to Andrew Greif of The Oregonian on the condition of anonymity thinks Armstead is a "work in progress" but that teams will covet his size and upside.
"But you don't build guys like that too often," the talent evaluator said, via Greif. "He's a monster of a dude."
He continued:
"What I saw in the first couple games is he's putting it all together with his ability and football savvy. He's being disruptive, getting upfield and shedding blocks. I think a lot of 3-4 teams would fall in love with him because he's strong, and at the same time, he is a good athlete. As far as a run stopper and a big disruptive guy, that's what you want.
"
Even though he needs to develop as a pass-rusher, Armstead's upside alone should intrigue the Bears if he falls to them in the second round.
Statistical information and player measurements courtesy of NFL.com and Sports-Reference.com.
Matt Eurich is an NFL/Chicago Bears Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
