San Francisco 49ers: How Big Should Aldon Smith's Extension Be?

Aldon Smith is set to count nearly $9.8 million against the salary cap for the San Francisco 49ers in 2015, according to Spotrac.  That’s a ton of money, even for a game-changing player like Smith can be.  It’s the 75th-biggest cap hit in 2015 among all players and the eighth-largest among outside linebackers.  With the team already butting up against the salary cap, an extension would make a lot of sense for the team.

The reason Smith counts so much against the cap is the decision the team made last year to use the fifth-year option on him.  That is a clause built into rookie contracts since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement which gives teams the right to add an extra year to their first-round picks.  For players like Smith, taken in the top 10 of the 2011 draft, the contract value is 2014’s transition tag at the position.

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

None of that money is guaranteed until the start of the league year in March—it’s all base salary, with no signing bonus or anything of that nature in the way.  That gives the team maximum flexibility to rework the deal.  They can essentially tear up the old contract and write a new one from scratch.

Of course, the elephant in the room is Smith’s off-field troubles.  His nine-game suspension this offseason essentially made him persona non-grata in the 2015 season; he only managed two sacks in the remaining seven games.  There’s also the worry that another off-field incident could cost him a full season or more.

Obviously, that’s a significant concern, but at a certain point, the team has to move forward.  The best strategy for it would be to include some sort of language in the contract de-escalating Smith’s salary if he misses a certain number of games for non-injury reasons.  This would be similar to the language in Colin Kaepernick’s contract de-escalating its value as long as the 49ers don’t reach the Super Bowl.

Assuming that is in place, however, there’s very little reason not to give Smith an elite edge-rusher contract.  The question is, what does such a contract look like?  By comparing some of the recently signed free agents and extensions at the position, we can perhaps come to grips with what an extension for Smith might look like.

Noah Berger/Associated Press

The going rate for contracts for 26-year-old starting outside linebackers seems to be about a four-year contract.  That’s what the Seattle Seahawks gave to K.J. Wright and the New Orleans Saints gave to Junior Galette in 2014, both of whom are within a year of Smith’s age. 

A slightly more elite player, like Smith, might demand a slightly larger deal; players such as Clay Matthews and Tamba Hali received five-year deals from their clubs.  This may be another area of negotiation between player and club; there could be a fifth-year option if Smith remains trouble-free, for instance.

It’s not much use comparing Smith to Wright or Galette—his performance has been at a much higher level.  Instead, I looked through the top contracts to find players who had similar stats to Smith's in the years leading up to their most recent contracts.  Here are the players I found:

Player	Seasons	Age	G	Sk	Pressures	Tkl	Ast	FF
Aldon Smith	2012-14	25	34	30.0	186	89	26	4
Trent Cole	2009-11	29	45	35.5	227	139	27	4
Tamba Hali	2008-10	27	47	26.0	209	125	42	11
Clay Matthews	2010-12	26	42	32.5	201	127	30	6
Robert Mathis	2009-11	30	46	30.0	184	97	43	9
Brian Orakpo	2011-13	27	33	20.0	115	83	42	4

It’s not a perfect selection, but these are the kinds of players to whom Smith will likely be compared.  He’s a bit younger than any of the comparisons, but his actual on-field production matches up with any of these names as they approached new contracts.

On a per-game level, Smith’s sack total dwarfs any of his competition's.  That’s sort of balanced out by the tackle and forced-fumble numbers—even when you account for the games Smith has missed the past two seasons, he’s still behind the likes of Cole, Hali and Matthews. 

This has something to do with the systems each player finds himself in, as only Smith and Robert Mathis are asked to rush the passer more than half the time.

Cole, Hali and Matthews are the best comparisons—it’s their contracts, more than any others, that Smith’s agents will point to when talking about an extension.  Mathis is included because, like Smith, he’s overwhelmingly a pass-rusher, though the age makes that comparison weaker. 

Brian Orakpo’s included because he missed almost the entire 2012 season with a torn pectoral muscle; it’s to add in a degree of concern about a player missing time in the future.  Smith’s raw numbers outplace Orakpo’s.  Adding those two players in helps account for some of the specifics of Smith’s precise situation.

Here are the contracts those five players signed immediately following the statistics put up here:

Player	Years	Value	Average	Guranteed
Trent Cole	4	$48.525 million	$12.132 million	$14.5 million
Tamba Hali	5	$57.5 million	$11.5 million	$35 million
Clay Matthews	5	$66 million	$13.2 million	$20.5 million
Robert Mathis	4	$36 million	$9 million	$17 million
Brian Orakpo	1	$11.455 million	$11.455 million	$11.455 million
Average	3.8	$43.896 million	$11.457 million	$19.691 million

Mathis’ contract value is the least, by a significant margin, thanks to his age.  He was a full five years older than Smith will be when he signed his four-year deal with Indianapolis back in 2012.  That puts him at the end of his peak, rather than at the beginning like the other four players. It would be hard to imagine Smith’s contract ending up at less than eight digits a year.

The other outlier is Orakpo’s one-year deal, which is simply the franchise-tag number.  That isn’t really an option for the 49ers, because the point of the extension is to save money against the 2015 cap. 

The projected franchise-tag value for outside linebackers in 2015 is in the neighborhood of $13 million, according to CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora.  The 49ers already have Smith for essentially the transition-tag amount, so that wouldn’t make any sense.

That leaves Cole, Hali and Matthews’ deals as potential comparisons for Smith, and all three would represent significant savings for the 49ers.

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

In the first year of their new deals, Cole counted $6.6 million against the cap, Hali counted $3.96 million and Matthews counted $6.71 million.  Any would represent significant savings for the 49ers in 2015, while the potential dead cap money of someone like Ahmad Brooks or Ray McDonald will be working its way off the cap. 

The contracts all jump up in their second season, but the 49ers will be in a better place, financially, in the next few seasons than they are this offseason.

The 49ers will probably have some success angling for the lower part of the $11 million-$14 million-a-year range, considering Smith’s track record and the worries about his off-field troubles.  Matthews, for example, was a multiple-time Pro Bowler when he signed his contract in 2013; Smith has only been a Pro Bowler in his one full season as a starter, in 2012.

So, what would my prediction for a final contract for Smith be? 

I’d estimate it would add four years to his current contract, meaning he’d be signed through 2019.  The $9.8 million he’s owed this year will be spread out throughout the four years, to go along with $45 million-$50 million of new money.  The resulting contract would place him in the top three outside linebackers in the game, behind Matthews and right in the same bracket as Hali.

This would have an average contract value between $11 million-$12 million, which is equally competitive among the top linebackers.  Add in a large signing bonus between $15 million-$20 million, with a low base salary in 2015, and the 49ers could possibly save as much as $6 million against the cap. 

Yes, it would be moving that money into later years, but Smith’s the special sort of player you want to lock up long term, assuming he can keep his nose clean.

The 49ers are going to have to make several moves if they want to have a shot at retaining some of their own free agents in 2015.  Giving Smith a top-level contract both clears that salary-cap space and ensures that their best pass-rusher will be on the team through his prime.

Unless otherwise noted, all contract values come from Spotrac.

Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.