Duron Carter a Solid Gamble for Depleted Indianapolis Receiver Corps

If you have any serious interest in the NFL, you haven't been able to go a day over the past couple months without hearing some sort of rumor about former Montreal Alouettes receiver Duron Carter. Carter, the son of Hall of Fame receiver Cris Carter, has traversed the NFL landscape as a coveted CFL free agent. Whatever that means in the grand scheme of things. 

Last night, Carter finally settled on the Indianapolis Colts as the team he'll attempt to make an NFL roster with again. ESPN's Adam Schefter first reported that Carter was close to terms with the team:

In picking Indianapolis, Carter has chosen a terrific destination for his football career to blossom. Nobody with talent ever went broke catching passes from quarterback Andrew Luck. Additionally, the bottom of the Indianapolis receiving depth chart is barren at this point. 

The Colts have a sure thing in wideout T.Y. Hilton, outside of the fact that he'll need a contract extension to stay on past the 2015 season. 2014 third-rounder Donte Moncrief flashed talent and has enviable size and speed, but he couldn't put it all together last season. Beyond them, Reggie Wayne looked finished, Hakeem Nicks is no longer 2011 Hakeem Nicks, and punt returner Josh Cribbs took the active role from Griff Whalen. Wayne, Nicks and Cribbs are all free agents as we go into the 2015 offseason. 

That makes this an ideal situation for Carter to begin his career. Not only is the depth chart completely unsettled, but it's also mostly empty at this point. That will give Carter tons of opportunities in OTAs and minicamps to make his mark. 

Source: Football Outsiders

Carter bounced around the NCAA, from Ohio State to Coffeyville Community College, from Alabama to Florida Atlantic, before landing in the CFL. However, given that his problems tended to be related to maturity and academics, rather than actual crimes, I think we can cut him some slack on talks of him being a "complete cancer." 

So now the question becomes: What do we know about Carter's actual talent level? How good do we think he'll be? That question is a little more unsettled. 

Given his background (former 4-star recruit, per 247 Sports) and size (6'5"), I think it's fair to say that Carter can pass the physical tests of the NFL. Statistically, he's done quite well when he's played—no matter what level it's been at. 

Year	Team	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Touchdowns
2009	Ohio State	13	176	1
2010	Coffeyville CC	44	690	10
2013	Montreal (CFL)	49	909	5
2014	Montreal (CFL)	75	1030	7

The biggest weakness I see in Carter, as related by Dan Pompei in his piece on the player, is how he'll deal with press-man coverage. He was pretty much shut down by Delvin Breaux, a fellow CFL prospect who signed with the Saints this offseason. Pompei writes:

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Coaches told him he would be a focal point of the game plan, but midway through the second quarter, he still had not seen a pass come his way. He became frustrated and drew two 15-yard penalties, one after punching an opponent and the other after he was pointing at an opponent and his hand was bumped into an official's face. He wound up with three catches for 25 yards in a 40-24 loss.

Breaux handled Carter at the line of scrimmage pretty well, which reinforced the idea Carter needs to muscle up. During a recent visit to an NFL team, Carter checked in at nearly 6'4" and 198 pounds. His father believes he has the frame to weigh up to 215.

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Carter certainly does catch plenty of touchdowns, but I agree with Pompei's assertion that Carter could use some more meat on the bones. I also believe that players like Carter are the exact kind of players scouts fall hard for—jaw-dropping physical ability and terrific integration of tools during big plays but perhaps not consistent from down to down. 

I think Carter will be a useful NFL receiver but perhaps not the player scouts like Bleacher Report's Matt Miller suggest he will be:

Given that the Colts can use any caliber of NFL receiver they can get their hands on, and that Carter likely came cheap, it's a worthy use of resources to take a chance on him. 

I just don't go into this expecting Carter to be the kind of star that his consistent recent media presence and CFL stats would have you believe he is. I see his peak as more of a good-to-middling player, with a chance for a little more if he continues to learn from his trials. 

That should be music to the ears of Colts fans sick of watching Luck throw passes that Nicks wasn't prepared for last season. 

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders.

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.