
5 Late-Round Sleepers Who Would Be Perfect for the Atlanta Falcons
When it comes to the NFL draft, every team tries to hit on a couple of late-round sleepers with athletic traits who could become great starters. The Atlanta Falcons are no different, and with a new head coach coming in for 2015, they should look for athletes who truly fit the new schemes.
Sleepers can come from any and all conferences and backgrounds. They normally do come from small schools, but sometimes, they can be guys who will undergo a position change in the NFL or guys who have a unique trait about them that very few people in the NFL have.
When it comes to finding sleepers, a Moneyball tactic has to be used. There's no such thing as on-base percentage in the NFL, but figuring out what the market inefficiencies is where the real value of Moneyball comes in. It's how the Seahawks found most of their defensive talent, and Atlanta should do the same.
LB Lynden Trail, Norfolk State
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Lynden Trail is one of the most unique players in the draft. He's long at 6'6.25" and weighs 262 pounds from what he measured at the Senior Bowl. He's quick, running a projected 4.55-4.60 in the 40. And he's got great lateral fluidity and length that makes him look like a basketball player out there trying to play linebacker.
His fit in the 3-4 would be ideally at strong-outside linebacker. However, his fit in the 4-3 is a bit more interesting. He could play very well in the 4-3 and 4-3 under schemes effectively as a strong-side linebacker with a primary job of setting the edge and manning up on tight ends.
Trail isn't a great pass-rusher, but he could develop into a competent player there. If the Falcons select him, they might have the ideal player to neutralize the best tight ends in the league. The best way to cover a power forward is with another power forward. Lynden Trail could help test that theory.
In order to select him, the Falcons would likely have to use their fourth- or fifth-round pick. He's a raw player who has great range and will look like a tweener to a lot of coaches out there. But if the Falcons draft him and play him at strong-side linebacker, they could have that dominant sleeper who changes the game.
Senior Bowl measurements obtained firsthand.
RB Tyler Varga, Yale
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When it comes to running backs, there are many different trains of thought. The first is that you have to get the best possible player at the highest possible pick and that the offensive line isn't as important as the back himself. This method led to Barry Sanders.
Then there's the more popular method of finding running backs. Which is that once you have the offensive line together, the running back should be a priority. You can find them in the late rounds as long as they have good vision and burst and fit the scheme you are running.
This method led to Terrell Davis and Alfred Morris. This is also how you would get Tyler Varga. Atlanta could bring in the highly intelligent, great-vision running back who's built like a Marine Corps drill sergeant with a seventh-round pick and have a great third running back for their committee fresh from the start.
Combine him with Devonta Freeman and a powerful running back in 2015 and Atlanta could have a great running game with minimal investment in their running backs. Varga has great vision and a solid 5'10", 227-pound frame that has both power and speed. Even if his best case is a good Peyton Hillis, that's more than what the Falcons normally get from a seventh-round pick.
NT Ellis McCarthy, UCLA
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Nose tackles are very interesting players. Sometimes, they go extremely early due to a size, speed and technique combination that's just rare coming out of college. But there are only so many Haloti Ngatas and Dontari Poes out there. The bigger question is who the next Paul Soliai or Damon Harrison is.
These are the two-down, role-playing big bodies that are rare on earth. As Bill Parcells' planet theory alludes to, there are only so many 300-pound human beings on the planet. It needs to be modified to there being only so many 6'4"-or-taller, 320-plus pound humans out there for today's times.
One such human is Ellis McCarthy out of UCLA. The 6'5", 325-pound defensive tackle has the quickness off the snap that Soliai had early in his career and a frame to scarily add even more weight than the 325 he's already at. Unfortunately, McCarthy is extremely raw and needs a ton of refinement to his game.
Luckily for the Falcons, a huge positive for McCarthy is his age, as he'll turn just 21 before his rookie season. Atlanta could potentially take him in the fifth or even sixth round and have that developmental two-down plugger that Soliai has become throughout his career.
CB Nick Marshall, Auburn
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Sometimes, sleepers shouldn't be sleepers. However, former Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall looks to be just that. He likely won't go on the first two days of the draft at either quarterback or cornerback, but he should provide his NFL team with proficient depth at both early in his career.
The big thing with Marshall is that as a cornerback, he presents a market inefficiency. Very few teams have tall, long corners who understand offensive concepts extremely well and have good ball skills. At his 6'1.5", 205-pound measurements from the Senior Bowl, he's got similar length to Richard Sherman.
Sherman was also an offensive conversion, as he played wide receiver during most of his college career. Sherman uses his intelligence and length to make plays on the ball and keep receivers at bay. However, the thing Sherman doesn't have is the top gear that Marshall seems to have.
In Atlanta, Marshall would be able to develop behind some talented cornerbacks in Robert Alford and Desmond Trufant. And as he develops, he could easily turn into a big-receiver matchup corner as well as an outside corner should the Falcons want to move Alford or Trufant to the slot.
Senior Bowl measurements obtained firsthand.
OL Ali Marpet, Hobart
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The biggest market inefficiencies come from football teams below the Division I FBS level. There is a ton of pro talent that gets overlooked every year just because they don't play for a big school. Division III football has a couple of players every season who deserve looks but rarely get them for that reason.
Offensive lineman Ali Marpet from tiny Hobart and William Smith College is one of the top guards in this year's class and will end up getting selected at some point on the third day due to the inability to fairly evaluate him on his college tape. When a guy dominates every game he plays, it's tough to project him.
However, at the Senior Bowl, Marpet easily held his own and looked like one of the best guards in the class. In a zone-blocking scheme, he has the potential to be a Pro Bowl-level guard and has the tenaciousness in his blocking that Harvey Dahl had.
Atlanta could start a group with Jake Matthews, Marpet, Joe Hawley, Jon Asamoah, and Ryan Schraeder and have a group that would provide clean pockets and open wide running lanes for their backs. A normal concern for Division III players is normally size, but at 6'3.75" and 307 pounds from the Senior Bowl measurements, Marpet has almost ideal size for an NFL-level guard.
Senior Bowl measurables obtained firsthand.
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.




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