Timing Is Perfect for New York Rangers to Sign Derek Stepan to Mega Extension

The New York Rangers have been searching for a bona fide No. 1 center since 1997, a time in which Mark Messier departed for the Vancouver Canucks, and Joe Sakic remained in Colorado after a failed offer sheet attempt.

Since 1997 the Blueshirts have tried out a number of players in that role, and the list includes Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, Bobby Holik, Eric Lindros, Petr Nedved, Michael Nylander and Vinny Prospal among others.

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Each had limited success, but none of the above were a good fit over an extended period of time. Right now the timing is perfect for the franchise to lock up their best center since Mess left the first time, because Derek Stepan clearly is the right fit and a valuable player the Rangers can't afford to lose.

The Blueshirts' top pivot is set to become a free agent this summer, and his consistency should spark the franchise to reward him with a deal that makes sure he is wearing red, white and blue for at least the next half-decade.

The timing is perfect, because the longer the Rangers wait, the more expensive it will be to retain Stepan, and they definitely don't want him going to arbitration.

It is no secret that Stepan was going to get paid; the only question was how much. Stepan's latest deal that pays just under $3.1 million a year was a low rate for a player of his caliber, and in many ways it was a "show me" contract.

At the start of the season, it is fair to say that the high point of his next deal would be between $5 million and $6 million, but there's a chance that negotiations for Stepan's next contract will start in that range.

While it may seem like a lot of money, $6 million and up is the going rate for a No. 1 center these days, and for Stepan that could be a huge bargain. There have always been debates in the past of whether or not Stepan was better suited to be an elite second-line center as opposed to a good first-line center, but there should be no doubts to what he is at this point. 

Season	GP	G	A	PTS	P/GP
2010-11	82	21	24	45	0.55
2011-12	82	17	34	51	0.62
2012-13	48	18	26	44	0.92
2013-14	82	17	40	57	0.70
2014-15	31	8	24	32	1.03
Career	325	81	148	229	0.70

In September I pondered whether or not Stepan was No. 1 center material, and I made the determination that there are two types of No. 1 centers in the NHL, or 1A and 1B. 

You can find the full criteria I used here, but I will recap. 

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The first category would apply to centers such as Sidney Crosby, Ryan Getzlaf, Claude Giroux, Evgeni Malkin, Tyler Seguin, Steven Stamkos and John Tavares. This group includes some of the league's top offensive players, and they are conventional top-line centers.

The second tier would include centers such as Patrice Bergeron, Anze Kopitar, David Krejci and Jonathan Toews among others. All the players named are good enough to pivot a first line, but they are better known for their staunch two-way play instead of their offensive mettle.

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No group is better than the other, but they each have strengths and weaknesses. 

I feel this is a fair split and definition of what a first-line center is, and at this point Stepan can assuredly be added to the 1B tier of centers in the NHL. Statistically, Stepan has averaged about 58 points a season through four-and-a-half NHL seasons.

That number seems low for a first-line center, but it requires context for complete understanding.

The second-generation Ranger—his father Brad was drafted in 1985—started his career as a 20-year-old, and as he has aged he has become a better player in terms of production.

The only statistical anomaly to date was the lockout year in which Stepan made his biggest jump, but other than that he has been very consistent during regular NHL 82-game seasons.

The best way to evaluate the former University of Wisconsin standout, and what he will likely do, is to look at what he has done lately. Over the last two-and-a-half seasons—or during age 22 to 24—he's paced 68 points per season.

During that same span, Toews paced 76 points and Kopitar paced 71 points for those keeping score at home. In addition to those players, here are some comparable players to Stepan, and what they have done the last two-and-a-half seasons.

Player	GP	G	A	PTS	P/GP	Cap Hit
Derek Stepan	161	43	90	133	0.83	$3.075M
Logan Couture	160	60	69	129	0.81	$6M
David Krejci	154	35	88	123	0.80	$6.25M
Bryan Little	177	48	85	133	0.75	$4.7M

During the lockout year, Stepan tallied 44 points in 48 games, the year after he tallied 57 points in 82 games and this year he has 32 points through 31 games.

What is clear is that Stepan has taken his offensive game to a new level this season, and that is evident by watching him play. The Rangers are a more cohesive unit when he is in the lineup, and that is because of his ability to distribute the puck.

Here are just a few examples of Stepan's play this season:

Instead of being overly cautious, Stepan has made it a point to be more aggressive. He is shooting more, and his shooting percentage of 12.5 percent is up from 8.5 percent, and he's also increased his assists per game by 28 percentage points.

These improvements are clearly not a fluke, but an example of Stepan's maturation as a player. Now that it has been determined that Stepan is a legitimate first-line center, how much is it going to cost the Rangers?

At this point it is hard to tell for sure because of a number of factors. The salary-cap number for the 2015-16 season is unknown at this point, and the Rangers have a ton of players to re-sign this summer, such as Carl Hagelin, Martin St. Louis, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and so on.

Stepan clearly is the most important of these, because of his age and worth to the team. The Blueshirts have to be hoping that St. Louis takes a discount because of how he orchestrated his way to The Big Apple, and management is almost counting on Zuccarello taking another friendly deal.

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General manager Glen Sather is going to want to keep as many players as possible, but locking up Stepan long-term has to be a priority.

Any deal over two years will involve the purchase of unrestricted years, or years that Stepan could offer his services to the open market. It would make a ton of sense to sign Stepan to the max of an eight-year deal that takes him to age 32, because at that point he would still have time left to hit the free-agent market.

In this situation it would involve the purchase of six UFA years, and those will cost the Rangers. Krejci of the Boston Bruins signed a six-year extension before the start of the season that will pay him $7.25 million a season starting next fall.

Stepan is not going to get that much money, but he could get close to it. When you factor in the current financial climate, and that the salary cap will exponentially grow in the coming years, an eight-year deal that pays Stepan $6.5 million a season would be more than fair.

However, the Rangers will want to keep that deal between $6 million and $6.25 million, because the difference in $250,000 or $500,000 could be huge.

Not only would the deal reward Stepan for what he has done, but it would also compensate him for things he will do. Even if Stepan were to regress to being a 50- to 55-point center again, four seasons from now his deal would still be a steal.

Salaries are going up as a whole, and teams have to pay to keep their top players. Players of Stepan's ilk don't make it to free agency, and when they do, their best days are behind them. Toews and Patrick Kane set the bar with matching $10.5 million contracts.

Kopitar could command at least $9 million, and Stamkos could get $12 million. When you look at those contracts being among the upper echelon, $6 million doesn't seem as steep.

There are a lot of different variables, and tons of ways it can be spun, but at the end of the day there are more potential benefits than risks when it comes to signing Stepan to a mega extension.

All stats via Hockey-Reference unless otherwise noted. Financial information via Cap Geek archives.