Will Derek Stepan Establish Himself as a True No. 1 Center in 2014-15?

When the New York Rangers bought out Brad Richards in June, they not only freed up cap space, but they officially gave Derek Stepan autonomy. Stepan has occupied top-line minutes over the past few seasons, but with Richards around there was always the possibility that Alain Vigneault could count on him to be the guy at key moments.

Richards was in decline, but his veteran experience and leadership was a big plus for the Rangers. Now that he is gone, Stepan has become the biggest part of the Blueshirts' center depth.

The Rangers' 2008 second-round draft pick is in the last year of a two-year bridge contract that was signed last summer, and another solid season could earn him a nice paycheck. However, will Stepan truly establish himself as a true No. 1 center this season?

Before answering the question, here is a definition of a true No. 1 center. A true No. 1 center is a forward that is both an offensive dynamo and proficient defensively, or a solid two-way player with above-average offensive and defensive abilities.

They are also players who have enough talent to make a difference, and often make other players around them better.

The first category would apply to centers such as Sidney Crosby, Ryan Getzlaf, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares and Evgeni Malkin. The second category would apply to centers such as Anze Kopitar, Jonathan Toews and Patrice Bergeron.

The first category of centers hovers in the 75-plus point range, whereas the second category is somewhere between 60 and 75 during a good year. For example, Crosby finished with 104 points, Kopitar finished with 70 points and Toews finished with 68 points.

This is a basic definition that most people can agree with, but does Stepan fall in either category? At this point, Stepan does not; so it appears 2014-15 will be another year in which he is a quality second-line center playing in a first-line role.

This isn't a knock on Stepan, but he needs to show more before he can be looked at as a bona fide No. 1 guy. During the lockout-shortened season, Stepan posted 44 points in 48 games. It was an amazing season in which he was a factor in almost every game.

It didn't matter if Stepan was scoring a big goal, making a key stop on the penalty kill or setting up a teammate; he was a force for the Rangers. After this big season, Stepan tried to get paid. He was a restricted free agent with no arbitration rights, and he sat out until September 26, 2013. 

He missed 16 days of training camp, and he was very rusty once he returned to the lineup. The 2013-14 season was Stepan's best yet in terms of total points, but his points-per-game average dropped from 0.92 to 0.70. 

Season	Age	G	A	PTS	P/GP	ATOI
2010-11	20	21	24	45	0.55	16:27
2011-12	21	17	34	51	0.62	18:57
2012-13	22	18	26	44	0.92	20:55
2013-14	23	17	40	57	0.70	18:03
Career		73	124	197	0.67	18:19

In the grand scheme of things, putting up 0.70 points per game isn't bad because it factors out to 58 points a season. In addition to that Stepan is a capable defensive center, and for that reason he is very valuable to the Rangers.

However, as of this writing he isn't worth $6 million a year, a sum he could get if he has a career year in 2014-15. In order for Stepan to establish himself as a true No. 1 center, and get paid like one, he has to have a 65-point season or better.

At his peak, given what he has shown to date, Stepan could be similar to a center who just hit the jackpot.

When you factor in his offensive production and defensive prowess, Stepan is very similar to David Krejci sans the playoff production. Krejci just signed a new six-year extension worth $7.15 million a year, and believe it or not that is a figure that could play a role in Stepan's next deal.

Over the last three seasons at ages 21 to 23, Stepan has averaged 0.74 points per game. Over the last three seasons at ages 25 through 27, Krejci has averaged 0.78 points per game.

Player	Goals	Assists	Points	P/GP
David Krejci	52	112	164	0.78
Derek Stepan	52	100	152	0.74
Variance	=	-12	-15	-0.04

The difference between the two on average is 3.28 points a year, a slim gap that could be bridged as Stepan comes into his prime as a player.

While Krejci has proven to be a better player to this point, Stepan isn't too far off the mark. While Krejci's deal isn't a direct comparable for Stepan because it involved the purchase of six UFA years, the Rangers could look at this deal and use it as a template for Stepan.

This summer Stepan will become a RFA again, and it would make more sense for the team to re-sign him to a long-term deal than to bridge him again if this year is a success.

Another bridge deal would put him in a position in which his contract would involve the purchasing of multiple UFA years, and it could put the Rangers in a similar situation that the Montreal Canadiens were in with P.K. Subban.

If the Rangers opted to sign him to a long-term deal, it would buy out fewer UFA years than Krejci's newest deal, and the cap hit would be lower.

Using the Krejci deal as a guide, if Stepan elevates his production this year, a five-year deal worth $6 million a year would be worth it. Stepan will become a UFA at 26 after seven years of NHL service, so a five-year deal would buy two RFA years and three UFA years.

This deal would be fair for all parties, and it would look even better if the salary cap continues to rise. Ultimately, this is all contingent on Stepan elevating his game, and that is certainly possible. Excluding the anomaly that was the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season, Stepan has elevated his production each and every year.

Stepan will be paired with Chris Kreider from the get go, and as Kreider develops he could be a beneficiary in the assist department.

Only time will tell how good Stepan becomes, but there is certainly enough data to suggest that in the next two to three years he could enter bona fide No. 1 center territory, but this season will be key when it comes to forecasting his future.

Stats via Hockey-Reference.com.