Colts vs Patriots: Odds, TV Schedule, Predictions for AFC Championship Game 2015

There may have been something of a metaphorical changing of the guard in the divisional round when Andrew Luck beat Peyton Manning, but Tom Brady is not ready to pass the torch just yet.

The New England Patriots are favorites to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in a whopping three seasons, but first, they have to get past Luck and the Colts. Here is the essential information for Sunday's game as well as some predictions for the outcome.

2015 AFC Championship Game

Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Date: Sunday, Jan. 18

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

TV: CBS

Point Spread: Patriots -6.5 (via Odds Shark, as of Friday at noon ET)

Predictions

Patriots Will Top 150 Rushing Yards

Al Bello/Getty Images

The Patriots may not be a big running team, but they are against the Colts if recent history is any indication.

New England gashed Indianapolis for 234 rushing yards and a borderline ridiculous six touchdowns on the ground in last season's playoff matchup and then ran for 246 yards in this season's game. 

Indianapolis was 18th in the league against the run although it held Denver's attack in check in the divisional-round game and Cincinnati in check in the Wild Card Round. There's just something about New England, though, that brings out the worst in the Colts defense. It also brings out the best in some of the Patriots, as Pro Football Talk noted:

"

Pattriots RB Jonas Gray had 201 yards against the Colts in November. He has 80 total rushing yards in the two months since then.

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) January 16, 2015"

Ultimately, the problem for the Colts is that they cannot commit too many defenders to the box against New England for fear of the Brady and Rob Gronkowski connection. Gronkowski tallied 108 receiving yards and a score in the divisional round against the Baltimore Ravens, and Brady also has Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman as potential targets. 

The Colts will drop back into coverage and keep the running lanes open. New England will take advantage.

Andrew Luck Will Throw for 250 Yards and Two Touchdowns

Luck is typically a superstar, but he only has six touchdowns to eight interceptions in his three career games against the Patriots.

Still, he led the league in touchdown passes with 40 and broke Manning's single-season franchise record with 4,761 passing yards, and he will find a way to put up big numbers in this one. In fact, he has thrown for more yards than any quarterback in the history of the NFL and the second-most touchdowns (behind Dan Marino) in his first three seasons of his career.

Even with Darrelle Revis, the Patriots are not exactly the Seattle Seahawks and the Legion of Boom in the secondary. New England was a mediocre 17th in the league against the pass this season and is fresh off a divisional-round game where Joe Flacco tallied 292 passing yards and four touchdown tosses.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Even if Revis limits T.Y. Hilton, the Colts will still have Reggie Wayne and Coby Fleener to throw to in the open field. 

Plus, Luck will be playing from behind after the Patriots offense has its way with the Colts defense, so he will be forced to throw the ball more. That will lead to some impressive passing totals.

But It Still Won't Be Enough to Beat New England

Even though Luck will put up formidable individual numbers against a beatable Patriots secondary, his career record will fall to 0-4 against Brady and company.

For what it's worth, Luck doesn't seem too bothered by his lack of success against New England, via Ashley Fox of ESPN.com: "That hasn't grinded on me, in a sense, on my mind this week. You do look back on the film and try and glean some information about scheme, glean some things like that. It's a new game and a new opportunity."

While that confidence is good news for the Colts, New England is 8-1 at home this season counting the playoffs, and the one loss was a meaningless game against the Buffalo Bills to close the regular season. All the regulars didn't even play, and the overall effort level was akin to a backyard game in your neighborhood on Thanksgiving.

New England's offensive weapons will prove to be too much for an overmatched Indianapolis defense that was 19th in the league in scoring and 18th against the run. 

Brady is heading to the Super Bowl yet again.

Follow me on Twitter:

Follow @ScottPolacek