Fantasy Football '09: Breaking Down The Running Backs

(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

It's that time again.

Fantasy football 2009 edition is upon us, and that means one thing: draft preparation. Throughout my three part series I will highlight quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, to give you an advantage when you click, walk, or for some of you: stumble into your fantasy draft.

There is nowhere better to start than at the foundation: the running backs.

Below I will run over the "tiers" of running backs and then identify some good/bad values heading into draft day.

*Rankings based on one point every 10 rushing/receiving yards, six points for a touchdown, and negative two points for a lost fumble. Also based on HEAD TO HEAD LEAGUES.

The First Tier

Adrian Peterson

AP is the top player on the majority of draft boards heading into 2009.  He showed everyone last year that he is capable of enduring a 16 game season and showed some consistency in doing so—scoring double digits in 11 weeks, with only one week with less than six points.  '"All Day" also didn't have as many big runs as in his rookie year, but still put up numbers worthy of a top running back.  Some of that is luck, some isn't; regardless, expect Peterson to put up consistent numbers with a few huge weeks sprinkled in now and then.  It also doesn't hurt that he averaged almost 18 ppg vs. the NFC North last season.

The Second Tier

Michael Turner

I'm putting Turner into the second tier mainly because I am not sold on the Falcons this year.  Their offense has the potential to blossom beyond what it was last year.  Don't underestimate what a great tight end does to improve the running game.  As we see with Gates in San Diego, Witten in Dallas, etc.—a tight end that is a threat to catch passes can open up the running game—a luxury Michael Turner now has with the acquisition of Tony Gonzalez.  I'm just not prepared to put him in the same tier as Peterson now because of a tougher schedule in '09 mixed with durability questions.  Also take notice to how the Roddy White situation plays out leading up to the season-opener.  White is vital to stretching the field and letting the Falcons run the ball.  I would not be surprised in the least if Turner outperforms Peterson, but the risk is just big enough to put him in the second tier.  

Maurice Jones-Drew

With Fred Taylor finally out of his shadow, MoJo is poised to have his biggest fantasy season of his short career.  While the burden of being an every down back could weigh heavily on the little man's shoulders, there is no denying his production in his career with limited carries.  The difference between Jones-Drew and someone like Derrick Ward or Michael Turner last year is that he has proven to be a reliable fantasy back, before he steps into the featured role.  Take Jones-Drew as a top-4 back, and be confident he will continue to produce, but also have some room for upside.

Matt Forte

Last year in his rookie season, Matt showed that being a big time consistent running back is his forte.  While averaging over 14 points a game, the standard deviation of his game log was a minuscule 4.71.  He recorded seven or more fantasy points in all 16 games last year, and with an improved offense in Chicago, look for Forte to improve in his second season.  The Bears also face the weakest schedule in the NFL in '09 so look for them to be up in a lot of games, which could lead to a lot of carries for Forte.  

The Third Tier:

Chris Johnson

Any running back that plays in the type of offense Tennessee runs always warrants first round consideration.  Coming off an impressive rookie year, Johnson is looking to make even larger strides in his sophomore year.  The third tier is where you will find many of the big value backs as well as the disappointments this year.  While Johnson is a great talent, his 10.6 ppg vs. divisional foes last year is worrisome to me.  All three of those teams were poor against the run, and looked to improve in the off season which could make life tougher for CJ.  I also don't think that the Titans will be as successful as last season, which could lead to more passing in '09. Johnson is very talented, but only begin to consider him late in the first round moving into the early part of the second.

LaDanian Tomlinson

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?