Do Midseason NBA Trades Ever Work for Championship Contenders?

Any doubt about the Cleveland Cavaliers' lofty short-term aims disappeared with the flurry of midseason trades that brought in Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Timofey Mozgov.

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports first reported both deals, which collectively cost the Cavs Dion Waiters, two first-round picks, a disabled player exception and a trade exception. Basically, Cleveland gave up all of its inexpensive youth and future assets to shore up what it hopes is now a championship-caliber roster.

ESPN's Marc Stein summed up the pivotal week for Cleveland's general manager, David Griffin:

You don't sacrifice your future like that unless you're serious about competing, contending, in the present. Serious is, of course, what the Cavs should be.

LeBron James is 30 and finally showing signs of wear, and Kevin Love is a free agent this summer. Cleveland is wise to make bold moves now because nothing's guaranteed going forward.

So, the Cavaliers took big swings because they want to go deep—NBA Finals deep—this spring. The question is: Does this midseason shakeup make such a run more likely?

We collected data from the last 10 years, isolated the 20 Finals participants in those seasons, and looked to see which of them swung deals in the year they reached the championship round. Half of them did. Here's the list:

Team	Date	Principal Acquisition
2004-05 Detroit Pistons	Jan 22, 2005	Carlos Arroyo
2004-05 San Antonio Spurs	Feb. 24, 2005	Nazr Mohammed
2005-06 Miami Heat	Feb. 24, 2006	Derek Anderson
2006-07 San Antonio Spurs	Feb. 13, 2007	Melvin Ely
2007-08 Los Angeles Lakers	Feb. 1, 2008	Pau Gasol
2008-09 Orlando Magic	Feb. 19, 2009	Rafer Alston
2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers	Feb. 7, 2009	Shannon Brown
2009-10 Boston Celtics	Feb. 18, 2010	Nate Robinson
2013-14 Miami Heat	Jan. 15, 2014	Toney Douglas
2013-14 San Antonio Spurs	Feb. 20, 2014	Austin Daye

It's worth noting that only four of the listed squads saw their post-trade net ratings improve. Every team maintained a winning record following its exchange, but as you can see, midseason swaps have met recently with mixed results:

Team	Acquisition	Net Rating Before	Net Rating After	Difference
2004-05 Detroit Pistons	Carlos Arroyo	+2.4	+6.9	+4.5
2004-05 San Antonio Spurs	Nazr Mohammed	+12.4	+2.8	—9.6
2005-06 Miami Heat	Derek Anderson	+5.1	+4	—1.1
2006-07 San Antonio Spurs	Melvin Ely	+7.8	+12.2	+4.4
2007-08 Los Angeles Lakers	Pau Gasol	+5.8	+9.7	+3.9
2008-09 Orlando Magic	Rafer Alston	+9	+6.9	—2.1
2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers	Shannon Brown	+91.	+6.9	—3
2009-10 Boston Celtics	Nate Robinson	+5.7	+2	—3.7
2013-14 Miami Heat	Toney Douglas	+6.7	+5	—1.7
2013-14 San Antonio Spurs	Austin Daye	+7	+10.1	+3.1

Perhaps the most striking thing about these trades is that just one of them featured a true impact player: Pau Gasol in 2008. He was key in getting the Los Angeles Lakers to the Finals that year and just as important in helping them win the whole thing the very next season.

That trade obviously worked out, but if you step back and look at the bigger picture, what you see is exactly one out of 20 Finals participants benefiting from a significant—keyword=significant—midseason move.

So if you're the Cavs, you're hoping to be an outlier here. And you're hoping the combination of Smith, Shumpert and Mozgov work out to be somewhere close to as valuable as Gasol was for the Lakers. For his part, at least, Griffin is convinced the incoming talent is going to make a difference, per B/R's Ethan Skolnick:

It's important to remember that we're dealing with data here, and even if history is a helpful guide, it doesn't necessarily apply to the unique situation in Cleveland. The Cavs hired a new coach over the summer, smashed together three stars, added a whole bunch of new role players and have now flung three more new pieces to the mix.

They're a special case whose chemistry, understandably, isn't remotely close to stabilizing. If part of the danger of a big trade during the year is upsetting the delicate balance of minutes, personalities and roles, that danger doesn't really apply to the Cavs.

Jason Miller/Getty Images

For them, a shakeup like this doesn't feel disruptive at all. There hasn't been time to establish any sort of culture or continuity in the first place.

Theirs is an exceptional situation.

It's fair to say midseason trades don't correlate with reaching the Finals, which should concern the Cavs. It's also fair to say that among Finals teams that made deals in the last 10 seasons, most actually got worse after those swaps.

The Cavaliers had major weaknesses on their roster, which they addressed by adding wing scoring, perimeter defense and rim protection. Their two deals made them a better, more well-rounded, potentially more dangerous team than they were before.

But recent history says we shouldn't expect the Cavs, improved though they may be, to enjoy major success this season.

Unless, of course, they're exceptional in more ways than one.

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