Toronto Raptors Might Need More Than DeMar DeRozan's Return to Compete for Title

DeMar DeRozan's impending return will help, but it's a mistake to think he'll single-handedly erase the defensive issues that have plagued the Toronto Raptors of late.

Per Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports:

Some perspective: The Raptors are hardly in critical condition. They're 24-10 on the year, good enough for third place in the Eastern Conference. They have an MVP candidate in Kyle Lowry and an elite offense that hasn't missed a beat since DeRozan went down on Nov. 28 with a groin injury.

Still, we've seen some worrying signs over the past few weeks.

The Raptors have lost three straight for the first time in over a year, thanks mainly to shoddy defense. Toronto's stopping power has completely disappeared since DeRozan left the lineup. Over the last 18 games, the Raps have posted the league's third-worst defensive efficiency figure, knocking their full-season rate all the way down to 22nd, per NBA.com.

Toronto has been especially vulnerable against opposing point guards in that span, which we can't rightly attribute to DeRozan, a shooting guard, being out.

Noah Graham/Getty Images

After getting blitzed by the Phoenix Suns' three-headed point guard monster on Jan. 4, Yaron Weitzman of SB Nation chronicled the alarming trend:

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The Raptors were torched by Stephen Curry two nights prior for 32 points. Damian Lillard went for 26 on Toronto in an overtime win last week. Ty Lawson dropped 28 on the Raptors the game before that, though Toronto did pull out the victory. The Raptors kicked off this current road trip by allowing Derrick Rose to score 29 points in a 129-120 Bulls win.

In a league where you have to face a top point guard almost every night, this is not a good problem to have.

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It's also not entirely fair to peg Lowry as the problem. His increased offensive load earns him some slack, and anyway, his defensive real plus minus (DRPM), per ESPN.com, is still positive.

This is a team-wide issue, caused as much by Jonas Valanciunas' failure to earn consistent crunch-time minutes as a rim protector as by the Raps' overall scheme.

DeRozan, perhaps having gained something from his time as an observer, will help.

"I've grown more mentally, when it comes to basketball, (than) if I hadn't been hurt," he said, per Lori Ewing of The Canadian Press. "Just watching the game and really understanding the game from a different level, understanding the things that I could do out there on the court that could affect the game, other ways I could figure out how to be better on the court."

Toronto allowed opponents to score just 102 points per 100 possession in the 538 minutes DeRozan played before his injury, per NBA.com. His DRPM is marginally positive, per ESPN.com, another sign he's a better-than-average defensive presence.

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Offensively, he's a player opponents must honor, which will make life easier for Lowry. In addition, Terrence Ross' role should shrink back down to the more limited one his game warrants, and the Raptors rotation can generally get itself back in order.

Toronto was 13-3 when DeRozan got hurt and has gone 11-7 since. Let's not overthink this; DeRozan makes them a better team.

	Record	ORtg (rank)	DRtg (rank)	NetRtg (rank)
Before	13-3	110.7 (2)	100.9 (9)	+9.8 (3)
After	11-7	111.5 (1)	108.6 (28)	+2.9 (10)

But does he make them good enough?

The Eastern Conference isn't a problem for the Raptors. They've gone 6-2 in conference without DeRozan, and both losses came against the Cleveland Cavaliers during rare pockets of the season in which LeBron James and Co. seemed to have their acts together.

The real worry is that Toronto hasn't handled itself against the West.

Those three consecutive losses? All on the road and all against Western Conference foes: Portland, Golden State and Phoenix. On the year, they've beaten just two West squads that made the playoffs last year: the Memphis Grizzlies back on Nov. 19 and the Los Angeles Clippers on Dec. 27.

This all comes back to defense, something we simply can't assume DeRozan can fix by himself.

Or can we?

With some serious straining, suspension of disbelief and convenient statistical cherry-picking, you can argue DeRozan's presence will sort out Toronto's issues on D. During that 13-3 start, the Raps posted a defensive rating of 100.9, ninth best in the league, per NBA.com. Along with an offense that has consistently hung around in top-three territory all year, those two rates combine to make Toronto look like a legitimate contender.

Dave Sandford/Getty Images

Now, to arrive at that conclusion, you'd have to ignore DeRozan's individual defensive numbers, which aren't spectacular. You'd also have to overlook the soft schedule the Raptors faced in their first 16 games, just six of which featured opponents with offensive ratings in the top 10.

The most realistic expectation is for DeRozan to improve Toronto on both ends but not enough to appreciably change their fate, which seems to be this: The Raptors are good enough to comfortably snare one of the top four seeds in the East even if their defense stays in the league's bottom third.

What we can't expect, though, is for the Raps to compete with anybody of consequence out West.

In a way, that's a compliment. It speaks to the realistic possibility that Toronto should even care about how it stacks up against the other, superior conference. It indicates a Finals trip is actually possible.

DeRozan will be a difference-maker—just not a big enough one to elevate the Raptors from good to great.

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