TCU's Claim to Next Year's National Championship

Oh, yes. The hype machine for TCU in 2015 has been warmed up. A sharp pull of the starting lever, a quick whiff of ozone, and it's up and ready to go. 

That's the result of the Horned Frogs' 42-3 rout over Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl. With the exception of Oregon's 59-20 victory over Florida State in the Rose Bowl, it was as impressive a showing as anyone in the postseason. 

It also added more ammunition to the debate over whether TCU should have been included in the College Football Playoff. Heading into the final week of regular-season games, the Frogs appeared to be securely ranked at No. 3 before falling a whopping three spots even though it took care of business against Iowa State. 

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Was it a matter of TCU's "brand" not being strong enough? Did the Big 12 co-champions title/lack of a conference title game hurt? There are a lot of theories out there. 

Know this, though: TCU, projected to finish seventh in the Big 12 this past season by media members, won't sneak up on anyone in 2015. Quite to the contrary, the Frogs are already bathing in preseason hype. Nationalchamps.net has TCU as its preseason No. 1 team. 

Among those looking at TCU as a playoff contender in 2015 is Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples: 

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The Horned Frogs could return as many as 16 starters from a team that went 11-1 during the regular season, so they’ll probably be the preseason favorite in the Big 12. And if you read this week’s Punt, Pass & Pork, you know Boykin is basically in the same -- albeit healthier -- place that Oregon’s Marcus Mariota was at this time last year.

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Staples points out a key distinction about preseason expectations. Bowl season "momentum" is largely a myth. Yes, it ends the year on a positive note and it gives head coaches a drum to beat in the offseason booster/alumni circuit. Offseason workouts are a little more enjoyable. Any carry-over from a performance standpoint, though, is nonexistent. At some point, the game is in the past and forgotten. 

Oklahoma, which had lofty playoff expectations after beating Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last January, sputtered to an 8-5 season and got clocked in the Russell Athletic Bowl by Clemson. Offseason hype didn't exactly help the Sooners there. 

"I talked to them [TCU players] about teams that had great seasons, that were highly ranked, that weren't there anymore," Frogs coach Gary Patterson said after the Peach Bowl (via Carlos Mendez of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram). "The common mistake that those teams make is that they don't think they have to go back to the beginning. We'll go back to the bottom."

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

All anyone can look at is what TCU has returning, which is 10 of 11 offensive starters plus co-offensive coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie. The addition of Meacham and Cumbie last offseason proved to be incredible, and the results showed immediately. This past season, TCU's offense finished third in the country with 46.5 points per game; that's three full touchdowns more than 2013's total (25 points per game). 

Beyond the numbers is the development of a sleeping giant on offense, starting with quarterback Trevone Boykin. Boykin, who in two years had to play the role of reliever rather than starter, once appeared bound for a position change. Instead, and with a full offseason as the No. 1 guy, he led the Big 12 in total offense (354.5 yards per game).

In many ways, Boykin became the dangerous offensive weapon many thought Oklahoma dual-threat quarterback Trevor Knight was going to become after his lights-out Sugar Bowl performance. 

Opponent	Date
at Minnesota	Thursday, Sept. 3
at Kansas State	Saturday, Oct. 10
at Oklahoma	Saturday, Nov. 21
Baylor	Friday, Nov. 27

The development goes beyond Boykin, though. TCU's wide receivers, an underachieving group in 2013, became one of the more productive units in the Big 12. In the absence of injured starting running back B.J. Catalon, Nebraska transfer and former blue-chip recruit Aaron Green finally emerged with four 100-yard performances in the final six games. The offensive line, a revolving door in '13, was finally healthy with the first team starting all but one game together. 

All of those players return. That's nightmare fuel for opposing defensive coordinators, and it's also why TCU might rely on some traditional Big 12 shootouts to win another conference title next season. 

TCU's key losses are on defense—and at every level. Gone are defensive tackle Chucky Hunter, linebacker Paul Dawson, defensive back Kevin White and safety Sam Carter. That's the team's anchor in the trenches, leading tackler and two great defenders. That's a lot of star power to replace. 

Patterson is a defensive guy, and 2015 will test his abilities once again to coach up another crop of players. 

The path to the playoff is the intriguing part for TCU because it's so similar to 2014—and everyone saw how that went. A road game at Minnesota remains the key nonconference game and a season-ending home game against Baylor could once again decide the Big 12 picture.

If there's one thing that potentially hurts TCU, it's that the Frogs do not play in the first weekend of December. Should TCU be in the CFP conversation, would it be out of sight, out of mind? That won't be known for another year. 

With a loaded offense returning, though, TCU should be preseason favorites to win the Big 12. Win enough games along the way and the Frogs will without a doubt be in the CFP picture. There's no secret about what TCU will offer in 2015: lots of offense with perhaps some defense to boot. 

The question is whether that will that be good enough next time around. How things shake out from a strength-of-schedule perspective is always a wait-and-see thing. But the perception of TCU football has changed in a hurry, and for the better. Another successful season and the Frogs will have some credibility, some staying power on their side. That could be the biggest difference. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.