Texans' Biggest Offseason Priority Is a Decision on Johnathan Joseph
The Houston Texans have perhaps the most fluid offseason situation of any team in the AFC South.
Over The Cap currently shows the Texans with $10.8 million in cap space. Houston's expected course of action is to sign quarterback Ryan Mallett to a small deal in exchange for a real chance to start, which is Priority 1. They also have to make a decision on a pair of free agents who played well this year but have been up-and-down over the course of their careers: cornerback Kareem Jackson and right tackle Derek Newton.
Finally, the roster has a few highly paid players no longer playing at superstar levels, and I expect, as originally reported by B/R's Jason Cole, that a release or pay cut is in the works for wide receiver Andre Johnson. A possible team-friendly pay cut for linebacker Brian Cushing would also be something I'd pursue if I were the Texans.
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But I think the question that defines the Texans' offseason, more than anything, is what they'll do with cornerback Johnathan Joseph.
Joseph was a revelation after the Texans plucked him out of free agency, but time moves quickly in the NFL. The cornerback will be 31 by the start of the next NFL season, and though he started every game this season, he left several of them with injuries. Google's AutoFill goes to "Johnathan Joseph injury" really quickly for a reason.
Joseph's play on the field, however, hasn't declined much. Joseph isn't good enough to get into the "shutdown cornerbacks or something like them" conversation, but he's still a very steady No. 1 corner at this point in his career. If you project a little decline for his 2015 season, I think that leaves you with the expectation that he's among the top 20 cornerbacks on pure talent, if not the top 15.
But...the injuries. The age. Those are the kinds of things that make NFL general managers nervous. Especially when they come attached to a $12.25 million cap figure.
| 2015 | $3.75 million | $12.25 million | $8.5 million |
And the more fascinating layer of this is that, in my opinion, the Texans really had an optimal situation with Joseph last season. Jackson was hurt part of the year, and though his ceiling is higher than Joseph's, I think there are legitimate concerns about Jackson's year-to-year consistency. The Texans had cornerback picks like Brandon Harris and Roc Carmichael flame out but had some success with undrafted free agents A.J. Bouye, Jumal Rolle and Darryl Morris.
I think those young players got just enough experience to grow last season while also not being completely exposed because Joseph never missed an entire game. I really doubt that any of them are for-sure NFL starters, but we've seen enough to know that they may have legitimate futures in the league, if only as below-average starters or nickel cornerbacks.
And that puts the Texans in kind of a precarious situation. Do they lop off Joseph's contract, entrust most of it to Jackson and hope he can be more consistent on his second contract? Do they let them both go and trust those young cornerbacks completely? Do they approach Joseph about a contract restructure and try to maintain what was clearly working last year while toeing the salary cap line?
| Johnathan Joseph | +14.5 grade / 64.4 QB Rating allowed | +3.7 grade / 71.8 QB Rating allowed | +5.3 grade / 71.9 QB Rating allowed | +5.9 grade / 83.8 QB Rating allowed |
| Kareem Jackson | -9.5 grade / 111.4 QB Rating allowed | +13.4 grade / 69.6 QB Rating allowed | -4.3 grade / 106.5 QB Rating allowed | +9.6 grade / 74.1 QB Rating allowed |
| A.J. Bouye | n/a | n/a | n/a | -0.3 grade / 75.3 QB Rating allowed |
| Daryl Morris | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1.3 grade / 92.4 QB Rating allowed |
| Andre Hal | n/a | n/a | n/a | -3.5 grade / 137.1 QB Rating allowed |
| Jumal Rolle | n/a | n/a | n/a | +0.8 grade / 90.9 QB Rating allowed |
More than any other player, I think how the Texans approach Joseph is going to determine a lot about their offseason. Houston hasn't ever really taken a complete stand on rebuilding under general manager Rick Smith, but they've also entrusted a lot of young players with big roles on the team.
And honestly, I can see it playing out in just about any way. Usually when we come to a situation like this, I feel like I have a firm opinion of what will happen and what should happen. But I think it's plausible to approach this from many different angles—this is a really tough evaluation.
I would be inclined to keep Joseph and try to get a contract signed that lowers his cap figure this season. I think his stellar play has often gone under the radar in Houston, and an established No. 1 cornerback is still a very valuable commodity. However, if I had to make a guess at what the Texans are thinking, I think it's more likely that they'll cut Joseph and try to re-sign Jackson in his stead, carving out more consistent roles for their younger corners.
I've criticized Smith for making a fairly obvious blunder in the Ed Reed/Glover Quin debacle. I don't think a decision on Joseph is anywhere near as easy to peg correctly today.
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