NFL Playoff Picks 2015: Forecasting Sunday's Wild Card Round Games

For the four teams in action, winning in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs will go some way toward moving past earlier postseason disappointments.

The Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions have all to varying degrees had their issues at this stage of the season. They've all enjoyed plenty of success in the regular season but have seen their playoff exits overshadow seemingly everything that had come before.

Winning in the opening round won't erase all of their respective question marks, but it would help validate their progress in 2014.

Time (ET)	Away	Home	TV Info	Live Stream	Spread
1:05 p.m.	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	CBS	CBSSports.com	IND -4
4:40 p.m.	Detroit Lions	Dallas Cowboys	Fox	Fox Sports GO	DAL -7.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

The Bengals have lost in the Wild Card Round in each of the last three seasons. Andy Dalton's numbers in those three defeats are 70-of-123 for 718 yards, one touchdown and six interceptions. According to ESPN's Trey Wingo, the 27-year-old has the lowest QBR of the 22 quarterbacks to have started a playoff game since 2011:

One, maybe two games could be a coincidence. With Dalton, you sense it's part of a larger problem. He's simply an average to slightly above-average quarterback, and the pressure cooker that is postseason football magnifies his flaws.

Making matters even worse, he will be without his best receiver against Indy. Cincinnati announced on Saturday that A.J. Green is officially out for the game:

The Bengals played the Colts in Indianapolis back in Week 7, coincidentally without Green then as well. Indy shut out Cincinnati, and Dalton completed 18 of his 38 pass attempts.

Worth noting, though, is that Jeremy Hill only ran the ball four times in that game. Barring injury, the rookie running back will get about five times as many touches on Sunday, and he ran for 395 yards and three touchdowns in his last game.

Still, the Bengals' fortunes will hinge on Dalton. They can't afford for him to struggle yet again. Otherwise, it's another early exit and possibly time to address the quarterback position.

Conversely, as Bleacher Report's Cian Fahey argued, Dalton could silence many of his doubters this year, much as Joe Flacco did during the Baltimore Ravens' Super Bowl run:

"

If there was ever going to be a time for Dalton to shut people up, it would be tomorrow. No Green, Jones, Eifert, on the road in playoffs.

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) January 3, 2015"

The Colts didn't have a lockdown secondary in the regular season, but their 229.3 passing yards allowed ranked 12th in the NFL. Meanwhile, Football Outsiders placed Indianapolis 10th in pass defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).

Until Dalton proves that he can win a playoff game, it's hard to see him actually doing so.

With that said, the Bengals are one of the most streaky teams in the league, so it wouldn't be all that surprising if they ended up beating the Colts by double digits, with Dalton throwing for 300 yards and three TDs.

Still, the smart money is on Indianapolis advancing.

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Cincinnati 17

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Speaking of quarterbacks who struggle in big situations, following the Lions' Week 17 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Matthew Stafford extended his losing streak on the road against teams that finished with winning records, per Josh Katzenstein of The Detroit News:

Stafford is aware of the stat but doesn't use it as any sort of motivator or potential hurdle to climb.

"I don't really care too much about it honestly," he said, per Fox Sports Detroit's Dave Dye. "I don't play the game by myself. I play with 10 other guys on offense, 11 guys on defense and special teams as well. We're all fighting tooth and nail to win games."

Although Detroit only lost to Green Bay on the road by 10 points, the result reinforced almost every criticism leveled at the team over the last few years. Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press offered a scathing critique of the Lions in his preview of their game with the Cowboys:

"

How about this? A Lions victory in Jerry's World is as likely as Jim Harbaugh taking the defensive coordinator job at Michigan State. Better? The Lions reaffirmed two things with their loss Sunday at Green Bay: They can't beat good teams and they especially can't beat them on the road. Dallas is a good team. In fact, they're probably the most balanced team in the NFC after the Seattle Seahawks. They're peaking at the right time, they've won four straight, six of their past seven games and have outscored their past two opponents, 86-24. Want a silver lining? OK, fine. The Cowboys are only 4-4 at home this year, including a loss to Colt McCoy-led Washington.

"

Of course, the Cowboys have their own playoff demons to exorcise. This is the first time since 2009 that Dallas is in the postseason, and the franchise has won one playoff game since 1996.

However, CBSSports.com's Brad Gagnon pointed out that the Cowboys are perhaps the hottest team in the league. They have won their last four games by an average of 21.5 points and also have a plus-nine turnover differential during that stretch.

Say what you want about Tony Romo as well, but the Pro Bowl QB earned NFC Offensive Player of the Month honors for his play in December, per NFL on ESPN:

Having Ndamukong Suh on the field will be big as the Lions attempt to shut down DeMarco Murray, but Detroit still has to worry about limiting Romo's success through the air. He's playing some of the most efficient football of his career and enters Sunday's game with a massive chip on his shoulder.

Little about the Lions' performances on the road this season lead you to believe that they can get past the Cowboys.

Prediction: Dallas 24, Detroit 20

Note: Spread info is courtesy of Odds Shark.