Jones vs. Cormier Preview: Predicting Ways the Fight Might End

It’s a rare occurrence when high expectations are met, let alone surpassed; yet that is what we expect from the upcoming bout at UFC 182 between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier.

On January 3, 2015, the Light Heavyweight title is on the line, in addition to the champion's growing claim to the pound-for-pound throne.

Even without their mutual rancor, their bout has all the makings of either an epic clash or a sadly conservative collaboration. Sometimes, when the stakes are high and equal to the opposition, the risk doesn’t seem worth the reward.

And make no mistake about it, both men must risk all in order to live up to the enormity of the moment before them.

Expectation is an ideal pointed at both ends. Based on the proof evident in history, it demands further proof of the same in the future. That is why both Jones and Cormier have so much to risk; because proof of their past greatness has advanced expectations to a level that cannot be met by anything less.

While we wait and hope that both men will fight with a passion due to the moment, we also ponder how these men will reckon with each other.

How will the winner claim victory?

Obviously, there are countless possibilities, but after we weed out the unlikely, we are left with the probable.

Here are the three main ways this fight might end.

KO/TKO

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Daniel Cormier (r) unloads on Frank Mir

Anytime two fighters with a strong grappling base meet, the possibility of the outcome being decided in the area of striking is rightly advanced.

After all, this is MMA, where grappling alone will not claim the day if both sides prove capable of thwarting the other on the floor.

In Jon Jones, we have a champion that has developed a highly diversified striking game that keeps opponents guessing. Coupled with his staggering reach and daring punch, Jones has proven capable of overwhelming fighters both in the shoe box and at range.

This advantage has been aided and abetted by the threat of his takedown and grappling game and the passive manner that many past opponents have taken when faced with the very real possibility that being out of range of his clinch game is their safest course to the next round.

Then, he attacks them at his leisure while they wait for a window of opportunity that never seems to arrive.

In Daniel Cormier, we have a fighter who may not be able to boast as wide an array of tools, but he has two things Jones, as of yet, does not: superior hand speed and knockout power.

Cormier is a fighter who is so utterly (and rightly) confident in his wrestling that he can totally commit to standing with anyone, unafraid of reacting to a takedown attempt too late. This, and his solid grasp of the basics of striking, has allowed him to knock out opponents with bread-and-butter techniques.

While the common perception may be that more tools make for a greater advantage, only one tool at a time can be used with any authority, and Cormier looks to be holding the bigger hammer.

That is why when Jones and Cormier meet, I believe that if anyone is going to win by KO or TKO, it will be Cormier.

So far, no one has been confident enough that they can cope with the clinch game of Jones on the inside. Thus, they don’t attack with any conviction and nothing further opens up; Jones becomes the one making them react, and from there, they are always a beat behind the music.

Cormier has all the tools and the understanding that the way to beat Jones is to put relentless pressure upon him. Coupled with his power, speed, takedown defense and confidence, the former heavyweight standout is ideally poised to do some serious damage.

And if he proves as capable in being the nail in addition to the hammer, he could be the man to keep coming back into the fray, eventually knocking Jones out.

Advantage: Cormier

Submissions

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When Daniel Cormier submitted Dan Henderson, he proved that position and power can mean a great deal in the face of grit and experience.

He had Henderson’s back, flattened him out, then forced his choke into position and snuffed out Henderson’s lights like blowing out a candle.

It was impressive and showed that he does have a submission awareness that other wrestlers don’t possess. In three years from now, he could be submitting opponents left and right, without the need of wearing them down with his weight and endless pressure.

But he doesn’t have another three years, and Jon Jones looks to be his better in this area.

In Jones, he will be facing a fighter who has looked like he is simply on another level when it comes to wrestlers who understand submissions.

Jones has proven capable of more than just anticipation, but innovation in the heat of the moment. Granted, he isn’t inventing the wheel, but he has proven incredibly adept and understanding positions and impending transitions and from there, snatching submissions out of thin air.

This could be bad news for Cormier as many of those submissions seem like natural counters for takedown attempts. The champion has also used them when attaining the top position; the likelihood of Jones getting such a position on the older Cormier is quite possible.

Given Jones length of limb and high understanding of leverage, he could catch Cormier quickly and have the fight won in short order.

Much fun has been had by the detractors of Jones who point to his slender frame as proof positive he could not compete in the heavyweight division. Sadly for them, it is the length of his arms and legs that gives him the ultimate levers needed to submit larger and stronger opponents.

As Archimedes said: “Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it and I shall move the world.” Jones has the levers and the fulcrum, and with his submission grappling awareness, even the smallest errors in position could see him end the night quickly.

Advantage: Jones

Decision

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Of all the possible outcomes available for an MMA contest, a decision win for either Jon Jones or Daniel Cormier seems the most likely, by far.

Both men are going to come into the bout ready for five hard rounds, and that is good because it is likely.

They will test each other often after the first minutes of Round 1, probing for weakness or an as-of-yet unseen advantage. The key is that neither man will linger too long in a position or range that favors the other, save when they press each other against the fence.

Each man is an incredible fighter, no matter which one you support; but that alone does not make for a great fight. What makes this fight potentially great is that after the first few rounds pass, with neither man claiming an unassailable advantage, they’re going to start getting desperate.

When that happens, fueled by all the pre-fight talk and the gravity of the moment, I believe we will see both decide that it is better to give than receive and commit to that utterly and without too much concern for defense.

They will begin playing to the strengths that got them there in the first place, and then we will see who really wants it more.

For a while I have been thinking that Jones is just too young and experienced and versatile, but now, when forced to choose a side, I am reminded of the first grueling fight between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier and the epic brawl between Marvin Hagler and Tommy Hearns.

Both Frazier and Hagler seized the moment by becoming the bull—pushing forward relentlessly, hands up and chin down, willing to take much in order to give a little. They never abandoned their attack, no matter how basic, because it was all they had, and it had given them all they enjoyed.

I think Cormier could end up taking some serious lumps in this fight, but in the end, I think he will be the aggressor, bulling through all the long-range kicks and punches like no one else prior has had the nerve and desire to do.

And in doing so, I believe he has the greater chance to pound out a unanimous-decision victory and in doing so, setting the stage for an epic trilogy.

Advantage: Cormier

Prediction: Cormier by unanimous decision