NFL Playoff Picture 2014: Full Standings and Final Picks for Week 17

If there's one thing the NFL has taught us over the years, it's that predictions are an easy way to get in trouble. Teams endure peaks and valleys over the course of 16 games that can make any assessment at a given time seem foolish. 

Making predictions in Week 17 is particularly difficult because teams already in the playoffs are likely to rest their starters, while those still fighting to get in can come out big in a tight spot. Whatever happens on the final Sunday of the regular season, it's all compelling in various ways. 

As the final hours tick away before kickoff, teams know where their fates lie, and they know they have one job to do. There are plenty of things still left to be decided, so let's examine the standings heading into the final day and make picks for the most important games on the schedule. 

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Even though it's felt like a foregone conclusion that Green Bay was going to win the NFC North, Detroit has done a good job of keeping pace with an 11-4 record heading into Week 17. There's more at stake in this game than just a division title, as the winner gets a first-round bye in the postseason. 

The Lions and Packers game is a battle of the unstoppable force and immovable object. Green Bay's offense has been rolling since that Week 3 loss in Detroit, averaging 33.5 points per game.

Eddie Lacy is running like he did at the end of his rookie season, making history along the way, as noted by Aaron Nagler of SI Now:

Of course Lacy is going up against the NFL's top-ranked run defense. The Lions allow 63.8 yards per game on the ground and are tied for the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns allowed (seven). 

In their first meeting, the Packers only gained 223 total yards of offense and averaged 4.4 yards per play. The difference this time around is the setting. As impressive as Green Bay's overall numbers look, Lambeau Field has been especially fruitful. The Packers have scored 288 points in seven home games.

On the other side, the Lions have been mediocre on the road with a 4-3 record. They struggled against Chicago last week. Matthew Stafford made the Bears secondary look good with two terrible interceptions that stalled drives. 

You can get away with those mistakes against Jimmy Clausen, but when Aaron Rodgers is the opposing quarterback, things are exponentially more difficult. 

Detroit's defense will keep it in the game, but Rodgers will make one big play late to give the Packers a division title and first-round bye. 

Packers 27, Lions 21

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

This San Diego-Kansas City game has undergone so many drastic changes throughout the week that you can throw a dart at a board to predict what will happen. 

Both teams are beat-up right now. Philip Rivers is dealing with a bulging disc and an ailing back, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport:

Ryan Mathews, who has been the only bright spot in San Diego's running attack this season, has already been ruled out by the team with an ankle injury.

As bad as the injury report looks for San Diego, the Chiefs are about to find out what life is like without Alex Smith. The former No. 1 overall pick was surprisingly ruled out when the team's trainer informed the media that Smith suffered a lacerated spleen last week against Pittsburgh, via Chiefs.com.

While there's no doubt that the Chargers will still air it out with Rivers, as they did in last week's comeback win against San Francisco, the Chiefs could benefit from Smith's absence more than you think. 

Tom Lynn/Associated Press

With Chase Daniel making his second career start at quarterback, Andy Reid knows that he will have to run the ball to score points. He's got one of the best running backs in football for that job, and San Diego just gave up 355 rushing yards to the 49ers. 

Jamaal Charles hasn't been a huge part of the offense in recent weeks, averaging 13.25 touches in the last four games. Not surprisingly, the Chiefs have lost three of those games and need a lot of help to make the postseason. 

Despite the likelihood of more touches for Charles, the Chiefs will eventually have to make a play in the passing game to win. Daniel has plenty of experience as a backup, but in a must-win game against a formidable offense, he's up against it on Sunday. 

With all its injuries, San Diego still gets the edge and will clinch its second consecutive playoff berth on the road. 

Chargers 24, Chiefs 20

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Norm Hall/Getty Images

Another game with a fascinating quarterback storyline on both sides is Arizona vs. San Francisco. The 49ers have been eliminated from playoff contention for weeks and face all sorts of uncertainty with their coaching staff moving forward. 

One problem for San Francisco this season has been Colin Kaepernick. He's loaded with talent and athleticism, but that only gets you so far if you struggle in the pocket. The 49ers' signal-caller has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four straight games with two touchdown passes and two interceptions during that span. 

Even when things seem to be going right for the 49ers, as they did early last week against San Diego, the bottom falls out. Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk had this stat to show how bad things are by the bay right now:

Things are brighter in Arizona, though the sun is fading fast. The Cardinals have done a masterful job of succeeding with a patchwork quarterback situation. They went 6-0 with Carson Palmer under center, but they are 5-4 with everyone else. 

Arizona's offense has been dreadful since Week 11, averaging 11.7 points and 290.2 yards per game in that stretch. Bruce Arians tried to find a spark leading up to Week 17 by originally naming rookie Logan Thomas as the starting quarterback. 

However, Arians had a change of heart as the week went on and moved back to Ryan Lindley—though Rapoport noted on Twitter there may be a bigger explanation for the switch:

The good news is Arizona has already clinched a playoff spot, so a win here isn't essential. The Cardinals do have a shot at the No. 1 seed with a win and Seattle loss against St. Louis, but this team should just be looking to put forth a strong effort to gain confidence before the playoffs. 

Give the Cardinals credit for not packing things in when their starting quarterback and backup went down with injuries. There's only so much one team can do with a third-string quarterback. 

Even though the 49ers have been making offseason plans for weeks, this is the one game on the schedule that should provide some respite, simply because they don't have to worry about the opposing quarterback beating them.

49ers 24, Cardinals 14

Stats via ESPN.com 

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