Penn Vs Florian: Technically Breaking Down the Fight

A lot of people write off Kenny Florian's chances of beating BJ Penn.  BJ Penn is considered the better striker, wrestler, and BJJ grappler, so there is no way in which he can lose.

However, most people make this opinion without carefully considering the way the fight will actually play out.  Let's consider.

When considering the fight, it is perhaps best to start by thinking about the gameplan that each fighter will employ.

An interesting thing to consider is that BJ Penn is one of the few great fighters that goes into fights without having a specific gameplan.

BJ Penn is so versatile and so talented, he feels that he can beat his opponent wherever the fight takes place.

That is not to say that BJ Penn will never go for a takedown, but he is far less likely to be concerned about where the fight is taking place, as he prefers to simply try to get the better out of every single exchange.

Although Florian has himself stated that he plans on beating BJ in every aspect of the fight, it is far more likely that Florian will come out with a specific strategy and complementary tactics.

In the build-up to his fight with Roger Huerta, Florian promised to engage in an all-out war, and surprised everyone by picking Huerta apart from range, using his grappling opportunistically to win an easy decision.

The Huerta fight is a clear indication that Florian will have made attempts to maximize his strengths, while neutralizing BJ's strengths, and capitalizing on BJ's weaknesses.

It will be very interesting to see what gameplan Florian uses to try to defeat BJ.

When the fight remains on the feet, it seems likely that BJ Penn will have an advantage with his boxing.

BJ has the ability to knock Florian out, while he can also inflict damage with a large volume of punches.

However, Kenny Florian is a better striker than most of the opponents Penn has faced.  He rarely absorbs a lot of damage on the feet.

Furthermore, Kenny Florian should probably have an advantage in the kicking department.  Caol Uno, and GSP, among others, have shown that BJ Penn will sometimes absorb a lot of leg kicks.

If the fight remains on the feet for a long period of time, BJ Penn will land a lot of jabs, but might also eat a lot of leg kicks.

There will of course be a lot of danger for Florian on the feet, but if he can land a lot of kicks, it will pay dividends in the later rounds.

Taking damage to the legs could possibly affect Penn's footwork while decreasing the power of his punches and takedown attempts.

However, the fight is unlikely to stay on the feet forever.  And while we should not completely discount the possibility of Florian initiating a clinch, or takedown attempt, BJ Penn is likely to have an advantage in the wrestling department.

When the fight does hit the ground, BJ should have a higher skill advantage.  However, Florian is a legitimate BJJ black belt, and thus should be very hard to finish.  Even fighters with a much less grappling pedigree than Florian have managed to survive significant amounts of time on the ground against Penn.

Penn could possibly defeat Florian by either TKO or submission on the ground, but it is far from a safe bet.

But while Florian's chances of finishing Penn on the ground cannot be discounted completely, given the unpredictable nature of MMA, I do highly doubt that Florian will be able to pull off the finish on the ground against Penn, who is famously hard to finish.

However, despite Penn's grappling advantage, Florian may still be able to win rounds with significant amounts of time on the ground, if he is able to scramble to top position and land some strikes.

If Penn is unable to finish Florian early, conditioning may become a factor.  While most people think that Penn should come into this fight in better shape than ever, we won't know until the fight goes deep.

It is very unusual for an athlete to make that big career turnaround when fitness is concerned.

Fitness is something that is grown over a long period of time.  So while Penn may show some improvements, there will be limitations.

At age 30, Penn also has his age limiting the size of changes we will see in his fitness.

So while many people believe that Penn will be in better shape than ever, I think that changes will be smaller than many expect.

If the fight does go deep, I do expect Florian to have an advantage in endurance and fitness.

On the feet, the combined effect of cardio and leg kicks should take its toll on Penn, and Florian should start to find more success in the exchanges.

Penn will have more difficulty taking the fight to the ground, and will also be less active there.

Florian should have an easier time avoiding submissions, and may be able to out-work Penn enough to get some level of positional control.

If the fight does go to a decision, it will likely be because Kenny Florian is a more conditioned athlete than BJ Penn.  Kenny will likely have earned the decision, and the UFC lightweight title.

Ultimately the question is whether Florian's gameplan and conditioning will be enough to overcome the greater raw talent of BJ Penn.

Personally, I think that Penn should be favored to win the fight. Probably by an early round TKO or submission.  However, I won't be surprised in the least if Florian pulls off the upset to win a unanimous decision. If I were a gambling man, I would probably be thinking pretty seriously about making a play if the line on Kenny approaches +200.