Where Has Colts Rookie WR Donte Moncrief Gone?

After Indianapolis Colts rookie wide receiver Donte Moncrief's big Week 13, in which he finished with 140 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, it seemed that the Colts wide receiving corp was becoming even more potent than it looked near the beginning of the season. 

Moncrief, who had produced at every opportunity, was poised to take over Hakeem Nicks' role as the third receiver and provide much more as a big-play threat. This could create a more explosive and consistent Colts offense, given Nicks' struggles to contribute much of anything to that point. 

But since that game, Moncrief has been somewhat of a no-show, catching just five passes for 38 yards over the span of three games. 

It's been especially noticeable over the last two weeks, as Moncrief didn't catch a single pass in the Colts' win over Houston and caught just two passes for five yards in the Colts' abysmal loss at Dallas this past Sunday. 

What happened? Was Moncrief's production merely a mirage? Is his development still to come, or have the last two weeks simply been a result of circumstance? 

To answer those questions, we go to the tape. 

Colts vs. Texans: Missed Opportunities

While Moncrief's low target numbers could be surprising (seven in those two games), it makes sense in the context of his season. Moncrief is not a possession receiver, he's a big-play threat. Outside of his breakout game against Pittsburgh in Week 8, Moncrief has never had more than five targets in a game. He has, however, had six games with between three and five targets. 

So, it stands to reason that Moncrief could be a little bit of a boom-or-bust player, with a few big opportunities per game. 

With such little room for error, the high amount of production could be volatile. 

This is exactly what we saw play out against the Texans in Week 15. 

Despite the fact that the Colts were completely out of rhythm in the second half and only had four second-half drives, Moncrief had several big-play opportunities that simply didn't work out due to circumstances outside his control. 

In the first quarter, for example, Moncrief split the safeties and was open down the seam, but Andrew Luck overthrew him by about a foot-and-a-half. The Texans were in zone coverage on the play, and Moncrief was able to get by the safety with his speed as he crossed the middle of the field:

NFL Game Rewind

With the corner worried about T.Y. Hilton coming back upfield, the safety rotated too far outside and Moncrief was able to beat him to the inside. But the throw wasn't there. 

Close, but no cigar. 

Moncrief's second target of the Houston game was a quick out against off-man coverage. Open on the play with room for potential yards after the catch, Moncrief's chance was quickly erased by defensive end J.J. Watt, who batted down the pass at the line. 

Late in the second quarter, Moncrief had a diving 48-yard touchdown reception on a tipped ball, only to have it called back due to a holding penalty on Anthony Castonzo. 

Moncrief was targeted twice in a disjointed second half. Once was a back-shoulder throw that Moncrief wasn't expecting (but was ripe for the taking). The second was a 15-yard dig route in which a good route beat the corner cleanly, but the safety read the play well and jumped the route for the pass defense. 

As a result, Moncrief was held without a catch on the day, but very easily could have had another low-volume, high-yardage day. It was simply an unlucky day for the rookie. Moncrief played just about every other series in that game, and the unit's inability to establish rhythm throughout the day cut down on his chances, especially with a lot of quick passes called to negate J.J. Watt's pass-rushing abilities. 

Play that game 10 times, and Moncrief is likely only held without a catch one out of 10 times. 

Moncrief's effect on the game could still be felt, regardless. Take this 13-yard completion to Dwayne Allen, for example:

NFL Game Rewind

Again in zone coverage, the Texans cornerback follows Moncrief up the field too far, worried about a deep ball to the outside, and Allen is wide-open coming across the field. 

Colts at Cowboys: A Risk-Averse Game Plan

Now, while the Colts' game plan against the Texans was rather normal, just unfortunate, the game plan against the Cowboys was anything but. 

Having already clinched the division title and a playoff spot, the Colts' offensive game plan without T.Y. Hilton and with a banged-up offensive line was very much focused on keeping Andrew Luck safe as much as possible. 

You could see it on the opening drive, when Luck handed the ball off on three consecutive plays, even 2nd-and-15 and 3rd-and-14. 

You could see it in the types of plays, as Luck threw screens on at least seven of his 22 attempts. Four of his first five throws were predetermined, one-read throws. 

On Moncrief's first target (a screen) he was a little hesitant, and it cost him as Hakeem Nicks' block was beat and Moncrief was hit at the line of scrimmage. Had he taken the ball inside Nicks' block right away, he may have had room to gain some yards. But the key takeaway really was the Colts' inability to run effective WR screens. It's been a struggle all season, so expecting the Colts to do it well now would be silly:

NFL Game Rewind

With Hilton out, the Colts ran a lot of short plays for Nicks and Reggie Wayne, letting Moncrief keep the safeties honest while the Colts tried to exploit the middle of the field with the possession receivers. Moncrief did have one chance—a quick five-yard dig on 3rd-and-4 in which he made a nice contested catch for a first down—but he wasn't the main target on shorter stuff like Nicks was. 

When Hilton returns, the Colts may want to try to switch things up, letting Hilton take the top off the defense and letting Moncrief take more of the short crossing routes in an attempt to get the rookie some yards-after-catch opportunities. 

All in all, I don't see many differences in Moncrief's game from when he was succeeding earlier in the year. 

The rookie is still raw, and he doesn't have the little tricks that Hilton or Wayne do to beat man coverage in his routes. But he still runs fairly disciplined routes, and his speed makes him a threat to make a big play at any time. 

Whether the Colts will tip their hand much in terms of playcalling in Week 17 is up in the air, given their playoff seed is locked in at No. 4. But it would be a good time to experiment more with guys like Moncrief, figuring out ways they can get him the ball earlier in games to really get the defense thinking about him.