Why the Detroit Tigers Should Not Re-Sign Max Scherzer

Firstly, let me state that Max Scherzer is undoubtedly one of the finest pitchers in the game of baseball. An ESPN tweet recently put his dominance during recent seasons into context:

Any MLB team would be grateful to have this man rearing back on the bump for them every fifth day.

But greatness these days comes at an exorbitant cost. This was demonstrated by the game’s best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, signing a contract worth $215 million with the Dodgers earlier this year, per Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com. It appears that Scherzer—as well as his agent Scott Boras—expect him to be elevated into a similar pay scale this offseason, according to Newsday's David Lennon:

As one of the game’s wealthiest teams, the Tigers can probably afford paying players this kind of astronomical salary. In fact, according to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, they forked out $214 million for Prince Fielder just two offseasons ago.

Is Scherzer worth this kind of money?

To some franchises he probably would be. He could be the dominant frontman for deep-pocketed teams like the Yankees or Rangers and help propel them back into the playoffs.

As for the Tigers, they already have a bonafide No. 1 starter ready to step up—David Price.

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

The tall lefty became property of the Tigers in July after a trade with Tampa Bay. Detroit is well placed to insert him as its ace with his numbers comparable to Scherzer’s during the past five years.

	WAR	K	BB
Price	23.4	1033	266
Scherzer	22.9	1081	305

The Tigers also boast a strong supporting cast to go alongside Price. Anibal Sanchez remains one of the most underrated pitchers in the game (9.6 WAR in 2013-14). Next in line is 2011 American League Most Valuable Player Justin Verlander. He will emerge from a clean offseason in 2015—a luxury not afforded him this year after core surgery in January. Both would be automatic aces on many other big league clubs but will be No. 2 and No. 3 next year in Motown.

Recent trades have brought in starters Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon to round out the rotation. With Kyle Lobstein as their long reliever,and youngsters Kyle Ryan, Drew Verhagen and Buck Farmer developing their games at Triple-A, the Tigers boast a solid and fairly deep stable of starting pitchers.

The addition of Greene and Simon alone provides evidence that Detroit will not be partaking in the Scherzer sweepstakes. Some, including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, have speculated that Simon could wind up in the bullpen where he spent the majority of his career before last season.

However, with a phalanx of righties already cluttering its roster, i.e. Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, Al Alburquerque, Bruce Rondon, Joel Hanrahan and Alex Wilson, surely Detroit has its sights set on using Simon as a starter.

It should also be noted that the cost of signing Scherzer would be greater than just his hefty contract. Lynn Henning of The Detroit News revealed recently that another big contract would push Detroit over a payroll of $189 and force it into paying luxury tax. This would be a minimal 17.5 percent for a first offense, but would jump to 30 percent for infringing a second time. With potential tax add-ons, Scherzer’s contract would become even more unpalatable for the Tigers.

In addition to money, Scherzer’s contract demands will also likely include a significant investment in time—somewhere in the region of seven years. He may be worth it now, but it is hard to predict his value in four or five years. His fastball will surely lose some zip, and his violent action creates the potential for arm problems. Although Verlander’s numbers have dropped off the past few seasons, the Tigers can rely on his ethereal delivery to keep him logging 200-plus solid innings per year.

Can the same be expected of Scherzer?

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Without Scherzer and the traded Rick Porcello, Detroit’s rotation will have stepped back a notch or two when compared to last season. But the franchise identified a need to get better offensively and defensively, which they achieved with the addition of Yoenis Cespedes. The expected return of Jose Iglesias will further improve the Tigers' fielding.

While offense and defense have been addressed, there remains one glaring weakness on the Tigers’ roster—left-handed relief.

Speaking on Detroit Sports 105.1 radio, C.J. Nitkowski believed that finding a southpaw made more sense than investing heavily in Scherzer: “The smarter move—as Tigers fans well know—is to try to the shore up that bullpen. A big lefty would be nice if they could find one that would fit, or even a usable lefty.”

That “big lefty” was on the market until just a few weeks ago. Andrew Miller was arguably this offseason’s premier free-agent reliever until he was snapped up by the New York Yankees. Miller cost them $9 million a season according to ESPN, which incidentally is just a tad more than what the Tigers have invested in Soria next year—food for thought if money were considered the barrier for Detroit.

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Tigers’ President/General Manager Dave Dombrowski may soon rue not signing their former first-round pick. His dominant pitching last season, including a 14.87 K/9 clip, placed him among the upper echelon of relievers in the game. The best Dombrowski can now do is sign a free agent, such as Tom Gorzelanny, or settle for incumbents Ian Krol and Blaine Hardy. None of these options raises a great deal of enthusiasm.

It’s not been Detroit’s starting quintet that has cost it championship rings in recent times, and it won’t be Scherzer who gets them there. It is the pen that needs the investment. Unfortunately, there aren’t many Millers around to fill their gaping hole.

Unless otherwise stated, all stats in this article are courtesy of Fangraphs

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