FBS Playoff Series: Five Teams

Picking The Top Four

If you were to pick four teams to put in a playoff before the bowls this past season, which four would you pick?

Would you pick the top four by rank: No. 1 Oklahoma, No. 2 Florida, No. 3 Texas, and No. 4 Alabama?

Or, would you pick the top four conference champions and replace Texas and Alabama, with No. 5 USC and No. 6 Utah?

Here is a format which forges a middle path, selecting the three conference champions in the Top 5 and Texas as an at-large. But, there is a way to reduce the influence of the polls by selecting the playoff teams on the field.

Overall, this five-team format adds a play-in game on Championship Saturday between two Top 8 teams. The winner of this game, along with the top three conference champions, advance to the four team playoff.

The Four Playoff Positions

In order to ensure that the play-in game features top teams, the teams in playoff position need to be defined before the final week. The three highest-ranked teams which have won or have the potential of winning their conference (including Notre Dame) are placed in playoff position.

Additionally, the winner of any game featuring two Top 8 teams is also given a playoff position.

Because a team must win its final game of the season to graduate into the playoff, there is a defined order of at-large teams. The highest-ranked team not yet in a playoff position is given the top at-large position. Conference champions remaining in the Top 8 are then seeded into at large positions. Finally, all remaining teams are given at large positions.

Here is what the situation for this past year would have looked like:

Playoff Position No. 1: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida

Playoff Position No. 2: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. (opponent)

Playoff Position No. 3: No. 5 USC vs. (opponent)

At-Large Position No. 1: No. 3 Texas (bye)

At-Large Position No. 2: No. 6 Utah (bye)

At-Large Position No. 3: No. 8 Penn State (bye)

At-Large Position No. 4: No. 7 Texas Tech (bye)

Our play-in game would feature the highest-ranked team with a bye and the next highest-positioned at-large team with a bye. In this case, No. 3 Texas and No. 6 Utah would play against each other for a playoff position.

In the case where the two teams have already played during the regular season, then the loser of that game is removed from consideration and the two teams are re-picked.

As long as the play-in game matches two Top 8 teams, then the winner will be considered in playoff position.

If, however, there are now five defined playoff positions, then the team in playoff position No. 3 or the team in playoff position No. 2 would play an at-large team in the play-in game, so long as they had a bye this last week. This ensures that there are exactly four playoff positions.

Impacts on the Current System

A four-team playoff already causes changes to the system without the play-in game. A significant change would be the addition of a fifth BCS Bowl to preserve the 10 bowl spots.

Also, because this year the Orange Bowl would also host the national championship game, it would be played in the latest BCS slot (Jan. 4 or 5) instead of the Fiesta Bowl and host one of the two semifinals a week before the national championship.

Team selection for the BCS will not experience a fundamental change—the same conferences will have automatic qualification for their champions. Because the playoff is defined before the final week, having an additional BCS poll after Championship Saturday becomes useless and potentially confusing.

Therefore, at-large teams will be selected from among the Top 8 teams (win or lose in their final game) and from among the Top 16 teams who did not lose on Championship Saturday. This will also be the qualification criteria for BCS Busters.

Conclusion

Using the same concept discovered in the Three-Team Playoff, the play-in game helps weed out potentially overrated teams without adding an extra week to the regular season and by captivating a national audience.

Additionally, the flaws in an Eight-Team Playoff, which incorporate and then mutilate the conference championship games will be eliminated by adding only one unobtrusive matchup.

This playoff proposal puts a premium on teams winning their conference and also on winning their final game. This means that each game in the regular season is worth something for positioning and that a team can't "phone in" the last game of the season because they have already been assured a playoff spot.

Mid-major access to the national championship is now also created. While the highest a mid-major has been ranked at the end of the regular season has been only No. 6 during the BCS era, three mid-majors would have been given access to the National Championship because of their Top 8 finish: No. 6 Utah 2004, No. 8 Boise St 2006, and No. 6 Utah 2008.

Another Iteration of the FBS Playoff Series:

Sixteen Teams