FBS Playoff Series: Four Teams

The Optimum Plus-One

Of the talk of implementing a playoff for college football it is the four team playoff that would require the least amount of change to the current system. This is not a 24-team playoff that would wreck the bowl system or require a loss of regular season games. This is simply one extra game.

The semantic difference between a plus-one playoff and a four team playoff is that a plus-one takes the best two teams after the bowl games and that a four team playoff matches the top 4 teams prior to the bowls. In this iteration of the FBS Playoff Series, I will examine the three steps toward creating the optimum plus-one format.

1. Using The Bowls As Semifinals

Currently the BCS matches the top two teams in the BCS Championship. Obviously a plus-one under this format would match an almost undisputed champion with a potential also ran. Last year it would have matched LSU against one of the four (near equal) winners of the other BCS games (USC, Kansas, Georgia, or West Virginia).

A plus-one using traditional bowl matchups would also lack having the definite top teams matched up. Last year the matchups might have looked like this (a good slate, I believe):

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 7 USC in the Rose Bowl
No. 2 LSU vs. No. 6 Missouri in the Sugar Bowl (third at large)
No. 3 Virginia Tech vs. No. 5 Georgia in the Orange Bowl (first at large)
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl (second at large)

The top three games have very equitable matchups. One of the winners, however, would be left out. This means that in order for a plus-one model to be an improvement over the current model the top four teams must be determined specifically instead of allowing them to go to different bowl games.

Two of the Rose, Orange, Fiesta, and Sugar will host the semifinals. Whichever site is double hosting the National Championship will automatically host one of the semifinals, to reduce team travel. The second semifinal shall be determined by the top team's bowl tie-in. The remaining bowls will stay a part of the BCS along with a fifth BCS bowl (Cotton, Gator, Outback, Citrus, Peach, or Sun) to keep the number of BCS teams at 10.

2. Keeping A Traditional Rose Bowl

Everyone who has done their research about potential playoffs knows that the Big Ten, Pac-10, and Rose Bowl are all standing in the way. These entities wish to keep their Rose Bowl tradition intact and in doing so have prevented a playoff from materializing.

The solution is to keep the Rose Bowl tradition intact. The heuristics around this are that if champions (co-champions included) of these two conferences are both in the Top 6 then the two are pitted in the Rose Bowl AS a Semifinal. If only one team is in the Top 6 then a replacement is found (just as happens now) and the Rose Bowl is played as another BCS game.

This past year the Rose Bowl would have lost top ranked Ohio State to the playoff and Illinois would have been selected as a replacement, just as what actually happened. Applying this to the past 10 BCS years only three times would the Rose Bowl would miss out on a conference champion (2001 Oregon, 2004 USC, and 2007 Ohio State).

In contrast, the Rose Bowl already missed out on the following five teams because they ascended to the National Championship (2002 Ohio State, 2004 USC, 2005 USC, 2006 Ohio State, 2007 Ohio State). This discounts occasions under the old BCS format when the Rose Bowl hosted the National Championship in which case the the total would rise from five to seven.

Therefore, this ensures greater tradition in the Rose Bowl game. I would think that these conferences should be lining up to accept this proposal. This format would reduce occasions when the Rose Bowl selects a non-champion in half!

3. Keeping At-Large Teams in the Playoff And BCS

The selection procedure for the four playoff teams would occur as follows. First, if the Pac-10 and Big Ten place two champions (or co-champions) in the Top 6 then those two teams are matched in the Rose Bowl as a semifinal.

Second, the top two teams are guaranteed two spots. Third, if any spots remain then the top conference champion(s) in the Top 5 obtain those spots. Finally, if a spot still remains then the top at-large team is included. (Note, a team ranked No. 6 can only qualify for the playoff as a champion from the Pac-10 or Big Ten.)

The pairing of teams is done by allowing the top two (or one, if the Rose Bowl is a semifinal) of the ACC, Big 12, and SEC champions (if in the playoff) to host their respective bowls (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar). The remaining two playoff teams are paired to avoid rematches or to have the highest ranked host against the lowest ranked team remaining.

The BCS maintains the same team selection procedures for the remaining three games as before. Teams like Boise State, Utah, and Hawaii still have the same opportunities to play in the BCS, as will all other teams in the Top 14 of the Final BCS Standings.

The full slate of games for this past year would have looked like this:

No. 3 Virginia Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State in the Orange Bowl
No. 2 LSU vs. No. 4 Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl
No. 7 USC vs. No. 13 Illinois in the Rose Bowl
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 10 Hawaii in the Cotton Bowl
No. 8 Kansas vs. No. 9 West Virginia in the in the Fiesta Bowl

Conclusion

Should the BCS, college football, and those parties concerned about the Rose Bowl finally come around to a playoff, expect this to be the format used. It is a plus to the fans thirsty for a playoff. It is a plus to those schools (Miami and Washington 2000, Oregon 2001, USC 2003, Auburn 2004) which deserved a shot at the title. It is a plus to the Rose Bowl parties, concerned about tradition. It is a plus to the Networks who can generate more money per BCS game.

Perhaps it is irony but this model which was constructed two years ago may find its worst fit this year. The most likely outcome for the playoff will be the SEC Champion and Texas playing in the Orange Bowl while Oklahoma and USC play in the Fiesta Bowl. This looks to be a strong playoff construct.

However, this will most likely be the second time (2001 being the first) when the Rose Bowl gets it worse than under the current system. Currently USC and Penn State are tentatively scheduled for the Rose Bowl. However, USC is ascending into the playoff while neither Oregon nor Oregon State are in the BCS top 14.

This means that for the first time under this model the Rose Bowl would have to select outside its traditional conferences; that is, unless the BCS implements an allowance for the Rose Bowl to select outside the top 14 for an at large replacement. [news this summer reports that the Rose Bowl would select the BCS Buster, Utah, to play against Penn State; a strong matchup]

At any rate this model would produce strong playoff matchups to determine a National Champion on the field.

Other Iterations Of The FBS Playoff Series

Two Teams

Eight Teams

Sixteen Teams