NBA Injury Comeback Stories for Jabari Parker and Other Sidelined Rookies
Don't think of Jabari Parker's torn ACL as a major career setback. Think of it as a delay, which at 19 years old, he can afford.
Parker is expected to miss the remainder of his rookie season, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein, after a promising first 25 games with the Milwaukee Bucks, who selected him No. 2 overall in last June's NBA draft.
Half the 2014 lottery has now been hit by this destructive tidal wave of pain, as noted by ESPN Stats & Info:
Of course, it's the dreaded ACL injury that always seems to startle or frighten the most, given the usual one-year recovery timetable and the significance of knees in hoops.
But the history books paint an encouraging picture.
Unfortunately, we've seen a lot of guys go down with torn ACLs over the years. Check out how many before Parker, as illustrated by ACL Recovery Club:
While everyone's body heals differently, recently, it doesn't seem as though many players' careers have been threatened or drastically derailed by this particular injury.
Jamal Crawford won the Sixth Man of the Year Award twice since his 2001 surgery. Kyle Lowry has emerged as one of the top point guards in the league. Nerlens Noel seems to have the same hops he showcased at Kentucky. Rajon Rondo is back to tossing up triple-doubles. I even saw Lou Williams drop 36 points earlier this season in a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Sure, maybe some guys lose a hint of explosiveness. That might have been the case with New York's Iman Shumpert two years back.
But the good news for Parker is that his game isn't fueled by explosiveness. It's fueled by polished skills, sound footwork, strength and offensive instincts.
He's not like Shumpert, a guy who relies heavily on leaping and quickness. From a style-of-play standpoint, Parker draws comparisons to Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce, natural scorers who don't require blow-by first steps or above-the-rim bounce.
And I wouldn't be too concerned with the way time off this early could affect his development—or any other injured rookie for that matter.
Missing his first true NBA season (fractured knee cap) didn't stop Blake Griffin from coming back to win Rookie of the Year in 2010-11. And it sure didn't mess with his development. Nick Collison missed his 2003-04 rookie year with shoulder injuries, and he's played in at least 71 games in eight of the last 10 seasons (played in 63 of 66 games during 2011-12 lockout) since then.
The Lakers' James Worthy suffered a similar injury, during his 1982 rookie year, to the one Julius Randle went down with (fractured tibia) earlier in Late October. Worthy bounced back to average 14.5 points in 82 games the very next season.
ESPN's analytics guru Kevin Pelton shared (subscription required) some promising insight and analysis with regard to Parker's outlook in 2015-16:
"Two years ago, when Derrick Rose was rehabbing his torn ACL, I compared the performance of players during their first season after the injury to what my SCHOENE projection system would have forecast based on their age and past performance. The results suggested that players younger than age 25 tend to be less affected the following season, even after accounting for the typical development of young players.
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The only thing we can say for now is that this injury will push back Parker's projected time of impact. It shouldn't necessarily hurt his ability to make it, assuming all goes according to plan in terms of his rehab and recovery.
Quite frankly, Parker's injury shouldn't be too big of a blow to Milwaukee's playoff chances. As Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes points out, the Bucks actually have a better offensive and defensive rating when Parker is on the bench, per NBA.com.
Still, the timing of the injury is obviously unfortunate, as Parker was really starting to build a strong rhythm. Prior to the Phoenix Suns game in which he went down, he'd been averaging 14.3 points on 60.6 percent shooting in December.
But history tells us to bet on Parker returning just where he left off. It just might take a little extra patience.
Something tells me he'll be back to re-establish his potential as one of Milwaukee's franchise cornerstones.
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