Marlins' Mat Latos, Dee Gordon Trades Show They Smell Blood in NL East

Remember when the Miami Marlins shed all those star players a couple years ago, effectively punting on trying to contend in the National League East in the near future?

If you were to picture the exact opposite of that, it would look something like what the Marlins are doing this winter. Where they were once waving a white flag, now they're sounding the charge.

Several weeks after the Marlins first made it clear they meant business by signing slugging right fielder Giancarlo Stanton to the largest contract in baseball history, they've continued to make it clear by adding significant talent in a pair of high-profile winter meetings trades.

The first went down Wednesday night, and it's bringing All-Star second baseman Dee Gordon and veteran right-hander Dan Haren from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Haren could very well choose to retire rather than pitch for the Marlins, but the team won't be on the hook for his $10 million salary either way.

The Marlins have followed that deal up by acquiring another veteran right-hander. As reported by Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, Mat Latos is coming to Miami:

Take a moment to soak these trades in and you might find yourself remembering the promise that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria made in the wake of the Stanton signing.

"We are going to be surrounding him, we have already started to surround him, with All-Star-caliber players," said Loria, via the Miami Herald. "And there will be more.”

If it's track records you want to go off, the two trades the Marlins have made feel like mission accomplished.

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

In Gordon, the Marlins have added a 26-year-old who really came into his own in 2014.

As the Dodgers' primary leadoff hitter, Gordon hit .289 with a .704 OPS and an MLB-high 64 stolen bases. And as you'd expect for a player making the switch from shortstop, Gordon also played reasonably strong defense at second base.

Adding Gordon to the mix means the Marlins can move sweet-swinging left fielder Christian Yelich from leadoff to the No. 2 hole, a spot in the lineup much more befitting his abilities. With both of them under club control for several more years, you can't blame Loria for having high hopes for the duo.

Via Ken Rosenthal:

As for Latos, the catch with him is that the Marlins may only have him for one year. He's due for free agency after 2015, and he could price himself out of the Marlins' range with his performance.

However, the Marlins would certainly be happy to get such a performance if it means getting anything close to what Latos did in his three years in Cincinnati.

Across 81 starts, Latos posted a 3.31 ERA and 3.01 K/BB ratio. He did that despite pitching at one of the most hitter friendly parks in the majors. Give him the cavernous dimensions of Marlins Park, and he could transform from a solid No. 2/3-type starter into a No. 1.

Such is what the Marlins hope they've acquired: a dynamic top of the order and a guy who could potentially team with Jose Fernandez later in 2015 to form a dynamic top of the rotation.

However, there is a "Yeah, but..." here.

Though the Marlins are hoping he'll be a dynamic leadoff hitter, there's a chance Gordon will be a disappointment. His breakout 2014 was marred by a brutal second half during which he posted a .300 on-base percentage, a figure awfully reminiscent of the .301 OBP he came into 2014 with.

Equally concerning is that Gordon didn't come cheap, as acquiring him required the Marlins to cough up their top prospect in left-hander Andrew Heaney along with a trio of other assets. If Gordon doesn't live up to his 2014 breakout, the deal for him will hurt the Marlins.

Year	FB Velo	SL %
2012	92.7	24.6
2013	92.5	24.3
2014	90.7	23.2

Latos also comes with bust potential. He was last seen posting a solid 3.25 ERA in 2014, but that was over only 16 starts thanks to knee and elbow injuries. And since, as FanGraphs can show, the 27-year-old lost about two miles per hour off his fastball and scaled back the use of his slider, you have to wonder how healthy his elbow is.

Likewise, you have to wonder about the trade package the Marlins gave up to get Latos. Before the deal, MLB.com had Anthony DeSclafani ranked as Miami's No. 2 prospect. With that, the Marlins have shipped off two of their best prospects to acquire two high-reward, high-risk assets.

So as clear as it is that the Marlins want to be better, there's something to the warning FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan issued in writing about the Gordon trade:

"The Marlins are trying to convince everyone they’re entering a new era. Which is all well and good, until you make a misstep in trying to improve. That’s the real dangerous bit."

This is where you go looking for excuses for why the Marlins would be in a hurry to live dangerously. Surely there must be another besides wanting to validate Stanton's extension, right?

Yeah, there is. And it's a darn good one, too.

The NL East is vulnerable.

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

There's no point in trying to downplay the Washington Nationals as a legit contender in 2015, so I won't bother. Never mind NL East favorites, they're a legit World Series favorite with the talent they have.

But elsewhere around the division, there's really not much to see.

The Atlanta Braves are a traditional power, but they're in the middle of a transition phase. Swapping out Jason Heyward for Shelby Miller and Nick Markakis is more of a long-term upgrade than a short-term upgrade. If they trade Justin Upton, too, it will presumably be the same idea. Them improving on a 79-83 record in 2015 isn't overly likely.

The New York Mets, meanwhile, have an enviable collection of young arms and added a much-needed bat when they signed Michael Cuddyer. But since he's sliding into a lineup that still has some holes and age risks, an improvement over their own 79-83 record isn't necessarily in the cards.

Then there are the Philadelphia Phillies. They finished in last place in the NL East in 2014 and are now in the process of carrying out an overdue rebuild. They'll be threats again eventually, but potentially not for another five years. Maybe at the earliest.

Which brings us to the Marlins. They won 77 games in 2014 despite having something of a patchwork roster. Even with the risks, the additions of Gordon, Latos and, to a much lesser extent, Haren make that roster decidedly less of a patchwork affair.

The idea of contributions from Gordon and Latos combining with further development from Miami's young players make the idea of a leap into the 85-90 win range believable at worst, and probable at best. If Fernandez returns to his pre-Tommy John self in the second half, it's not hard to imagine the Marlins becoming a juggernaut that could ride a hot streak right into the postseason.

As a general rule, it's not a good idea to make risky trades. But proper timing can go a long way toward justifying them, and the Marlins are dealing with proper timing in more ways than one. The Stanton extension needed validating, and contention in the NL East was theirs for the taking.

The Marlins have checked both of these boxes. And months from now, they could be very glad they did.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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