Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers: Breaking Down Tampa Bay's Game Plan

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now in the driver’s seat to claim the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft, but they’ve still got three opportunities to grab a morale-boosting victory that could take them out of the running.

A road trip to Charlotte is their first obstacle, as the Bucs travel to take on their NFC South rivals, the Carolina Panthers.

The leading storylines heading into this game would have been Tampa Bay’s chances of landing the top pick, or Carolina’s chances of stealing the NFC South title, but the headlines were dominated by far more serious news on Tuesday. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was involved in a car accident, causing him to suffer multiple fractures in his lower back, according to ESPN. CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora noted this is the same injury Tony Romo suffered:

With Newton’s status in doubt, here’s a look at Tampa Bay’s game plan on both sides of the ball heading into this week’s game.

When Tampa Bay Has the Ball

The Panthers are near the middle of the pack when it comes to yards allowed against both the pass and the run, but they’re giving opposing offenses plenty of bang for their buck.

Ron Rivera’s bunch has allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns in the league (23) and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (13).

On the ground, Carolina is allowing 4.4 yards per carry, making this an attractive opportunity for the Bucs to get their struggling running game back on track. Doug Martin showed flashes of his former self in the first half of the Bucs’ loss to the Bengals two weeks ago, but he’s since reverted back to the disappointing norm fans have come to expect this season. The rest of the committee—Bobby Rainey and rookie Charles Sims—haven’t fared much better.

Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times wrote an article detailing the Bucs' struggles in the run game, following Sunday's loss to the Lions:

Too often, the Bucs have abandoned the running game in the second half, even when they were effective in the first half. They’ll have their best shot to win this week if they try to establish the run early and stick with it if they have success.

That falls as much on the play-calling as it does the execution, though, and quarterbacks coach Marcus Arroyo will have to get more creative in dialing up his running game if he wants Carolina to maintain that per-carry average.

Through the air, Carolina may be giving up touchdowns, but overall yardage and big plays are much harder to come by against this defense.

The Panthers are allowing just over 240 yards per game through the air, but that yardage is coming in small chunks. So far this season, Carolina has given up only four passing plays of 40 yards or more, the second-fewest in the NFL. The Bucs have tallied twice as many such pass plays, which still isn’t a whole lot, but that number is unlikely to go up this week.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

The Bucs’ biggest issue in both aspects of their offense is the poor play of the offensive line. Their backs don’t have room to run, Josh McCown doesn’t have time to throw and it seems like every other big gain is called back for holding up front. If the Bucs want to move the ball in any way this week, the offensive line will have to step up and improve its play considerably.

When Carolina Has the Ball

Newton’s potential absence from this week’s game will do plenty to alter Tampa Bay’s game plan on defense, but the team does have familiarity with backup Derek Anderson, having faced him in Week 1. Anderson started for an injured Newton and led Carolina to a 20-14 win, throwing for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Cliff McBride/Getty Images

Not having to account for Newton’s running ability would be a positive for the Bucs, in theory, but Anderson’s performance in Week 1 proved that might not necessarily matter. That said, Tampa Bay’s pass defense has improved considerably since the early part of the season, as all levels of the defense have grown far more comfortable in the Tampa 2 scheme.

The Panthers have done a fine job of preventing big plays in the passing game while on defense, but they've struggled to create those same plays through the air themselves when they have the ball, only managing four passing plays of 40 yards or more this season. The Bucs have excelled in the bend-don’t-break aspect of the Tampa 2 defense over the second half of the season, and that trend should continue this week.

The Bucs might have the advantage on defense through the air, but it won’t matter if they can’t keep Carolina’s 11th-ranked rushing attack from eating up yardage and possession time.

That running game is led by Jonathan Stewart, the oft-injured Oregon product who is averaging nearly five yards per carry on the season. Stewart exploded last week in the Panthers’ dominant 41-10 win over the New Orleans Saints, carrying the ball 20 times for 155 yards, including a 69-yard touchdown. The Panthers highlighted Stewart's nomination as FedEx Ground's Player of the Week:

Tampa Bay is allowing an average of less than four yards per carry this year, but it’s possible the Bucs could be without Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy this week, thanks to injuries sustained in last week’s loss to the Detroit Lions.

Without McCoy’s dominant presence in the middle and their leading tackler at the second level, Stewart and company could have a much easier time sustaining a ground attack that could wear down the Bucs’ thin front seven.

The key for the Bucs on defense is simple: stop the run or not much else will matter. If they can force the quarterback—whether it’s Newton or Anderson—to win the game through the air, they’ll have their best chance to create turnovers and give their offense a short field to work with.

*All stats courtesy of NFL.com.

Luke Easterling is a Featured Columnist covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and NFL Draft for Bleacher Report. He is also the Editor of The Draft Report. Follow him on Twitter @LukeEasterling.