Which Red Sox Pitching Target Makes the Most Sense in a Yoenis Cespedes Trade?

Let's go ahead and take a couple things for granted about Yoenis Cespedes.

One is that the Boston Red Sox are all but guaranteed to trade him, as the slugger is now expendable property after the team added Hanley Ramirez to an already crowded outfield. Another is that he's extremely likely to be dealt for a starting pitcher, something the Red Sox desperately need.

We're at a point now, in fact, where the rumor mill has produced a decent-sized list of pitchers Cespedes might be dealt for. We're here to talk about these guys, specifically about which of them is the most sensible trade possibility for all involved parties.

Before we get going, though, let's establish what kind of player we're talking about here.

Cespedes' main attraction is his power, as he's one of only 13 right-handed swingers to hit at least 20 home runs in each of the last three seasons. But he also has only a .298 on-base percentage since the start of 2013, he's not a great baserunner and his defensive value is tied mainly to his arm strength.

Between his limited talent and the reality that his free agency is looming after 2015, Cespedes is not a key that can open any door. That's something to keep in mind as we run through trade possibilities.

Now then, let's make like we're on the Internet and rank the most sensible trade targets for Cespedes from least sensible to most sensible.

6. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

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Best I can tell, there haven't been any actual whispers about the Red Sox trading Cespedes to the Reds for Johnny Cueto, who will also be a free agent after 2015.

But at the very least, there's been some solid speculation on the idea.

FanGraphs' Dave Cameron argued at FoxSports.com that Cespedes is an ideal fit for Great American Ballpark and that the Red Sox could possibly get Cueto for him if they were to also include a pitching prospect while taking on one of Cincinnati's bloated contracts. Another idea from Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe is that Cueto could be landed for Cespedes and "maybe two top prospects."

Either proposal makes sense for the Red Sox, as they're indeed loaded with both cash and expendable prospects. And of course, they'd be getting a guy with a 2.48 ERA since 2011 who just finished second in the National League Cy Young voting.

But from Cincinnati's perspective? Eh...not so much.

Due to his impending free agency, any trade for Cespedes is going to made with the idea in mind to compete in 2015. The Reds are already on shaky ground in that regard, and they'll be on even shakier ground if they swap out Cueto for Cespedes. One of those things simply isn't as good as the other.

So let's nudge this idea to the side and go to...

5. Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP, Seattle Mariners

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Probably more so than anyone else's, it's Hisashi Iwakuma's name that has popped up most often in Cespedes trade rumors.

For example, Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com recently tweeted:

Mind you, this was before the Mariners signed Nelson Cruz to a four-year contract, thereby filling their need for a right-handed power bat. But with Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune saying the Mariners are still looking for a right fielder, a Cespedes deal can't be ruled out quite yet.

To this end, Drew Fairservice of FanGraphs explained why it would be a solid swap on the surface:

"

Like Cespedes, Iwakuma can become a free agent after the 2015 season. Like Cespedes, he’s projected to produce around 3 Wins Above Replacement next season. Like Cespedes, the terms of his contact are downright reasonable, with $7 million coming to the Japanese hurler next year.

"

But if we listen to Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik, it sounds like we shouldn't count on it.

"There's no truth to that," Zduriencik told Greg Johns of MLB.com about the Iwakuma rumors. "I didn't have any substantive dialogue there. With Felix [Hernandez] and Iwakuma at the top and the other young guys we have, that's a formidable rotation."

Also, said "formidable rotation" isn't very deep after the big guns. The Mariners simply don't have starting pitching depth like the Red Sox have outfield depth. It would therefore take a big upgrade to justify sacrificing what depth they do have, and Cespedes frankly wouldn't be a big upgrade.

As for Boston's perspective, adding Iwakuma would mean adding a pitcher with a 2.97 career ERA as a starter. But it would also mean adding a pitcher who's been homer-prone despite pitching at Safeco Field. Do you really want to take a guy like that and put him in Fenway Park?

Probably not.

4. Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers

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Could Rick Porcello be on the move after posting a career-best 3.43 ERA in 2014?

According to Cafardo, maybe. Porcello's another guy who will be a free agent after 2015, and he apparently interests the Red Sox:

"The Red Sox would have more interest in Porcello than Anibal Sanchez, but a deal for Cespedes that includes these pitchers could materialize. ... Porcello fits the age (26 on Dec. 27) the Red Sox want."

Adding Cespedes would be a solid way for the Tigers to make up for the loss of Torii Hunter in right field, and a Porcello-for-Cespedes swap would be a fair swap of talent.

Though there are good reasons Porcello broke out in 2014, he was probably a little too good knowing that his strikeout and ground-ball rates (via FanGraphs) dropped off. He's more of a No. 3 in the immediate future than a No. 2.

Here's the thing, though: With Max Scherzer a likely goner, Porcello isn't expendable. ESPN's Jayson Stark is right in thinking that it would take Cespedes and a starter for the Red Sox to land Cespedes.

The Red Sox could manage that, but none of the starters they can offer are ideal fits for Detroit's win-now status. So while Porcello's a good fit on their end, the Tigers are less than an ideal trading partner.

3. Mat Latos, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

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Like Cueto, Mat Latos is also set to become a free agent after 2015. Also like Cueto, he's another guy whose name has surfaced in Cespedes trade chatter.

Here's Cafardo once again: "So much depends on the Sox getting Jon Lester. If they do, they can concentrate on getting a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, such as Mat Latos or Mike Leake from Cincinnati."

Beyond Latos and Cespedes both only having one year of control left, they're arguably on the same talent level these days. Latos was underrated before 2014, but injuries cost him a good chunk of the season and he really wasn't as solid as his 3.25 ERA suggests when he was able to pitch.

As such, a Latos-for-Cespedes swap would essentially come down to the Reds betting high on Cespedes' power and the Red Sox betting high on Latos bouncing back.

However, why shouldn't the Reds be the ones betting high on Latos bouncing back? MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $8.4 million in arbitration, or about $2 million less than Cespedes will earn in 2015. The Reds know he'll be a huge bargain at that price if he does bounce back.

As for the Red Sox, their rotation needs sure things more than it needs reclamation projects. Knowing that he had big-time velocity problems when he wasn't injured in 2014, that's exactly what Latos is.

Hence why the Red Sox would be better off aiming for...

2. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

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Here's a familiar refrain: Just like Cespedes, Leake is also due for free agency after 2015. But just as important is the other thing he has in common with Cespedes, which is that he's a good-not-great player.

With a 3.86 ERA and an ERA+ of an even 100 since 2011, Leake is essentially the definition of a league-average pitcher. But he has his merits even despite that, as he's upped his workload every year he's been in the big leagues and is a fantastic control artist who gets ground balls.

Basically, Leake is a solid fit for the mold of a No. 3- or No.4-type pitcher. Given Cespedes' lack of controllability and limited talent, that's more or less the kind of pitcher the Reds could be comfortable parting with and the Red Sox could be comfortable accepting.

But while a Leake-for-Cespedes trade would be a solid deal for both sides, you wonder if the Red Sox would prefer to swap Cespedes for a pitcher with a high ceiling rather than a high floor. 

If so, perhaps they'd prefer...

1. Ian Kennedy, RHP, San Diego Padres

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MLB.com's Corey Brock says that new Padres GM A.J. Heller is "believed" to have discussed a Cespedes trade. And though Tyson Ross is the best pitcher Heller has, Brock is right in thinking that Ian Kennedy is a better fit for a Cespedes deal.

Kennedy is yet another pitcher with only one year of club control left, and he's coming off a year in which he rebuilt his fallen stock with a 3.63 ERA across 201 innings. And after finishing dead last in the NL in runs while finishing second in ERA in 2014, Heller is indeed in a position to swap pitching for offense.

Where the Red Sox are concerned, the big scare with Kennedy is that he wouldn't respond well to a move from Petco Park to Fenway Park. Particularly knowing that he's a fly-ball pitcher who's been homer-prone in the past.

But at the same time, Kennedy has also turned himself into a heck of a strikeout pitcher. He struck out over a batter an inning in 2014, which had much to do with a velocity spike and, as Baseball Prospectus can vouch, one of the nastiest changeups in the business.

At worst, Kennedy could be a solid No. 4 pitcher who eats innings in Boston. At best, he's a solid No. 2. Knowing what we know about him, that's probably the best the Red Sox can do for Cespedes.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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