Lions vs. Patriots: Breaking Down Detroit's Game Plan

One week after playing the NFC's No. 1 seed in Arizona, the Detroit Lions head east to play the AFC's top dog in New England. 

What: Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2)

When: Sunday, November 23, 1 p.m. ET

Watch: Fox, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the call

This road trip appears even more difficult than the last, which resulted in a 14-6 loss where the Lions failed to score a touchdown for the first time in five seasons. New England has won six in a row since starting 2-2, and it's coming off its most impressive outing of the season, a 42-20 evisceration of the Colts in Indianapolis.

Unlike last week, where many (myself included) felt like the Lions had a strong chance to win the game, Detroit is an underdog given little chance to win by the vast majority. Yet the Lions do have the ability to pull off the surprise, and it goes beyond the old "any given Sunday" cliche. 

The theme to securing a victory is control. Arizona largely controlled the game in Week 11, especially early on. For the Lions to vanquish the Patriots, they must be the controlling force in the game.

Here are three ways the Lions can control the Patriots and come up with the big win.

Control Gronk

Rob Gronkowski is one of the most talented players in the league regardless of position. Some Patriots fans—and media—will argue he merits serious MVP consideration. 

"

Let's try that again. Gronk is a better MVP candidate than Brady: http://t.co/4oo2EEqIyE pic.twitter.com/jIg4pyKfy6

— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) November 12, 2014"

Brinson lays out a compelling argument in his linked piece from the above Tweet. Perhaps most notable is the impact Gronk has on quarterback Tom Brady:

• 59 percent completion, 198 yards and one touchdown per game with limited Gronk Weeks 1-4
• 67.5 percent completion, 320 yards and 3.5 touchdowns per game with healthy Gronk

He's capable of seemingly inhuman things on the football field. His touchdown catch and run over (yes, over) several Colts last week created one of the most awesome highlights of the entire season.

Gronk is a unique animal, a physical freak with an unmatched overdrive to his internal engine when he's mad or excited. Therein lies the key for the Lions: control Gronk early, and turn Happy Gronk into Sullen Gronk.

The Miami Dolphins did this effectively in Week 1. While he was physically limited in that game, the Dolphins defense did a dependable job denying him delight. 

Brady looked his way 11 times, but the stud tight end caught just four, totaling 40 yards. Miami frustrated the big tight end with a barrage of coverage attention.

Here's a typical handling of Gronk by Miami's solid defense. 

NFL Game Rewind

Lined up in a two-point stance but tight to the line, Gronk is immediately bracketed by two defenders. The outside corner is providing smart leverage and is blatantly cheating inside to prevent Gronk from getting an outside release akin to one in the above touchdown video. 

The safety over the top is able to provide deeper help, in part because the running back releases to that side. If Brady wants to throw to the back, the defense will happily take that outcome. 

NFL Game Rewind

As Gronk goes down the field, the linebacker remains posited on his inside hip. He takes a step outside and tries to get over the top of the coverage, but the safety immediately reads this and charges forward. Brady's throw innocuously hits the turf to the inside, and Gronk slowly trudges his way off the field. 

It requires real discipline and dedication to nullify the star tight end's impact on the game, but the Lions have shown they have the ability to put the clamps down on very good offenses this year. If Brady wants to beat Detroit with the likes of Brandon LaFell and Jonas Gray, that's better than allowing him to unleash Party Gronk. 

Control the First Drives

Detroit has a frustrating habit of starting slowly on one side of the ball. Some weeks, it's the offense. Others, including last week, the defense comes out flat before settling in. 

The slow starts are more consistent on offense. Detroit has really struggled with the opening drive or two in just about every game. 

	Plays	Yards	Outcome	Next Drive
Buffalo	3	3	Punt	3 plays, punt
Minnesota	7	80	TD	5 plays, punt
New Orleans	3	9	Punt	6 plays, punt
Atlanta	5	10	Punt	10 plays, punt
Miami	15	72	FG	1 play, TD
Arizona	3	9	Punt	6 plays, FG

In the games where the offense did produce early, the defense came out flat. Arizona scored touchdowns on its first two possessions. In fact, the Cardinals gained over half their 306 yards in the first quarter. 

A similar story happened in London against the Falcons. Atlanta had three of its first four drives end in paydirt on drives of longer than 50 yards, racing out against the Lions' slow-starting defense.  

Just once it would be nice if both units could come out of the gate firing on all cylinders. That would put pressure on the Patriots to play a complete 60 minutes against a good Lions team, instead of getting by with less than that like the Cardinals did a week ago. 

Maybe a change announced on Thursday will help bear some early fruit. 

"

Joe Lombardi said the Lions are paring down their game-ready playbook by about 20% in an effort to jumpstart their offense

— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) November 20, 2014"

It's encouraging the coaching staff has realized what is working and what isn't by this point of the season. Maybe the streamlining provides a cleaner focus for the beginning of the game. 

Control What You Can Control

The Patriots are a very good football team. They don't need any help in order to win. Yet in the past couple of weeks, Detroit has been making more of the self-inflicted mistakes.

Penalties are trending in the wrong direction. After starting the year with an improved track on the penalty front, Detroit is regressing.

	No.	Yards
New Orleans	9	71
Atlanta	8	85
Miami	10	98
Arizona	9	80

Prior to the Week 7 tilt against the Saints, the Lions were averaging just 6.2 penalties and 48.8 penalty yards per game. 

New England is too talented to defeat when committing so many infractions. Drive-killers like offensive holding or illegal man downfield need to stop. Special teams flags were an issue last week, including a taunting call on Julian Stanford. It was a poor judgment call by the official, but the Lions cannot afford to leave anything to chance like that. 

Turnovers also play a part in self-control. Detroit has managed this pretty well so far, though a little luck has played a role too. The Lions recovered two of their own fumbles against both Arizona and Atlanta, while both Miami (Louis Delmas) and the Cardinals (Jerraud Powers) dropped easy interceptions. 

The Patriots are in the middle of the pack with 11 forced fumbles, but they are dangerous when the ball is loose; New England has recovered eight fumbles and returned two of those for touchdowns. One of those came in Chicago, courtesy of Rob Ninkovich:

By comparison, the Lions have forced nine fumbles and recovered just four, scoring once. 

On the season, the Patriots rank second in turnover margin at plus-11. They're good at taking the ball away and don't make many mistakes to give it back up. The Lions have to wind up no worse than even in the turnover department if they hope to win. 

All statistics are from NFL.com unless otherwise noted.