Tennessee Football: Biggest X-Factors for Vols vs. Missouri

A trying week for Tennessee's football team will end when a tough opponent comes to town Saturday night, and several key things must happen in order for the Volunteers to keep this late-season surge going.

At this point, it would be a monumental surprise if senior middle linebacker and emotional leader A.J. Johnson played against Missouri in the midst of a sexual assault investigation. The same goes for sophomore cornerback Michael Williams, who is also allegedly involved.

Throw in junior safety Brian Randolph's first-half suspension following a targeting call against Kentucky, and the Vols just got a whole lot more inexperienced against a Tigers offense that finally broke through against Texas A&M.

The investigation is unfortunate on so many levels more important than football. But even if the best happens and Johnson's name is cleared and legacy kept intact, it likely won't help the Vols on the football field Saturday in an extremely important game.

So many things are on the line versus Mizzou:

A bowl berth. Payback from the Tigers' current two-game winning streak over UT. National perception. An escalated program turnaround.

All those things can be attained with a win and by finishing the deal at Vanderbilt a week later. But this week poses the biggest remaining test.

Let's take a look at the X-factors for the Vols entering a crucial SEC East showdown.

The Coming of Age of Jakob Johnson

Credit: 247Sports

Freshman linebacker Jakob Johnson is about to be thrust into the spotlight.

A Tennessee football team that has relied on freshmen in pivotal roles all season will be forced to lean on another one in a major way Saturday night.

Jakob Johnson—a 6'4", 240-pound physically gifted true freshman middle linebacker—will almost certainly be the next man up to replace A.J. Johnson against Mizzou.

He's big, he's fast and he's going to be really good in time. But can he get everybody aligned, make all the proper checks and still perform at a high level while staying disciplined in his run fits against a team whose success is as predicated on speed and deception as Missouri?

That's probably the biggest question for the Vols entering Saturday's game.

Not only was A.J. Johnson having by far his best season, the All-SEC performer never came off the field. In nickel packages, he was still a formidable force who wouldn't miss a beat in passing situations like he has in years past.

Now, the German-born Jakob Johnson must do it all. He can, according to his coaches.

Defensive coordinator John Jancek told UTSports.com:

"

It's a badge of honor to be a middle linebacker. Jakob has to do it. He's put the time in. He has worked extremely hard. I know he has been up early in the morning looking at film. We've challenged him to do so and he has responded well so far.

"

Added linebackers coach Tommy Thigpen: "We're not going to change anything. We're not going to make it anymore simple for him. Here, you get what you deserve. He deserves to play this week. He's doing everything we ask him to."

Those are encouraging words for a team that lost its leader. Now, it's up to the youngster to rise to the challenge.

Stopping Shane from Bringing the Pain

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The statistics speak for themselves.

Missouri fourth-year junior defensive end Shane Ray leads the SEC in sacks and is tied with Derek Barnett in tackles for a loss. He's fourth nationally in sacks and tied for fifth in TFL.

A breakthrough season has seen Ray surge up NFL draft boards. According to SI.com's Pete Thamel and Thayer Evans, NFL scouts expect the 6'3", 245-pound defender to be a top-10 pick.

"He's pretty damn good," one scout said. "He's real sudden and not real long, but he makes a ton of plays for them."

The Vols must stop that from happening.

A terrible offensive line's turnaround has been astounding since Joshua Dobbs took over for Justin Worley under center. The unit had allowed 30 sacks prior to Dobbs and just three since.

That improving number will face a major test this week against Ray and running mate Markus Golden. All the positive vibes surrounding the improvement of the line with Jacob Gilliam and Kyler Kerbyson must continue.

Dobbs can make things happen with his feet, but he still needs time to survey the field. It's vital the Vols hold off the best pass rush they will face all year.

Hurding Up the Yardage

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Of all the favorable matchups Tennessee enjoys (at least on paper) entering the Missouri game, Jalen Hurd's upward trend may be the biggest.

The star freshman is coming off consecutive 100-plus-yard rushing performances in wins over South Carolina and Kentucky. Mizzou, on the other hand, has allowed five 100-yard rushers in exactly half of its 10 games so far this season.

That's a recipe for a nice balance on the ground for the Vols.

Hurd has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Joshua Dobbs' tenure at quarterback. Having to respect Dobbs' feet, opposing defensive ends can no longer crash inside looking for sacks and tackles for a loss. The way Hurd ran bruising up the middle against UK needs to happen again this week.

If Hurd is able to get some positive yardage between the tackles, it should help Dobbs be able to move the pocket and make things happen in the exterior.

With 107 total yards, Hurd will eclipse 1,000 for the season. Though he needs 284 rushing yards to reach that milestone on the ground, that too is attainable if the Vols go to a bowl game.

Hurd's success or failure will be a microcosm of the offense's in this game. If he has a big game, Tennessee will win a big game.

Weathering a 1st-Half Storm

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There's no overstating how much of a disadvantage being without A.J. Johnson, Michael Williams and Brian Randolph in the first half could be for the Vols.

While UT should be more athletic with replacements Jakob Johnson, Todd Kelly Jr. and Emmanuel Moseley, all three are true freshmen.

Moseley actually had surpassed Williams at corner after an injury and has played strong football the past two weeks, but TKJr. was sidelined due to assignment busts after starting some early in the season. He is extremely talented, but some mental gaffes that plague most freshmen had reared their head.

Throw in the fact that Jakob Johnson hadn't played very much at all because A.J. Johnson rarely came off the field, and you get major concerns.

It's already been discussed that Jakob will have to align the front seven, but Randolph held that role for the secondary. That may be LaDarrell McNeil during a first half when Randolph will sit out due to a targeting penalty.

With all the absences, it wouldn't be surprising for UT to stay predominantly in nickel packages. The front four of Curt Maggitt, Jordan Williams, Danny O'Brien and Derek Barnett won't change. On the second level will be Jakob and Jalen Reeves-Maybin, but the Vols could use Chris Weatherd in pass-rushing situations.

On the back level, Kelly, McNeil, Cameron Sutton, Justin Coleman and Moseley would round out the defense.

That's a bunch of players who have played a lot of football for UT other than Jakob, so it shouldn't be a huge deal. But against Maty Mauk, Russell Hansbrough and the Tigers' speedy offense, getting lined up properly is essential.

The Vols must weather a first half that could be rife with confusion and miscommunication.

Winning the Quarterback Battle

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Joshua Dobbs and Maty Mauk will never be on the football field at the same time.

But that doesn't change the fact that the one who has the best game will probably lead his team to a victory.

Both are mobile quarterbacks. Both have similar skill sets. Dobbs has been more dynamic this year, but Mauk has played against a larger sample set of better defenses. They're both sophomores who will be facing the best tandem of defensive ends they've played against all year.

How they respond is going to be a major piece of the puzzle on who wins the game.

Though Dobbs is incredibly smart off the field, he's doing a better job of letting instincts take over on it. He told GoVols247's Wes Rucker (subscription required):

"

Most of the stuff I do in the pocket, I practiced. I practiced it on the practice field, whether it was in the winter or during the season. Most of the stuff I've practiced. But when it comes down to it, it's all about instincts. It's all about feeling the rush and just making a play when it's there. I mean, when you play quarterback, it's not really about going out there and being a ball player; it's going out there and reading the defense, understanding what they're doing, understanding the plays and understanding what you need to do to be successful on that play. But when you're out there, you want to play free, you want to play relaxed. And that's what I try to do.

"

If Dobbs can go out and ball out close to the way he has the past three games against the nation's 22nd-ranked defense, the hype surrounding his burst onto the scene will be legitimized. 

That will mean that he's guided a once stagnant offense past an 8-2 team whose success has hinged on its defensive playmakers all season. That's a major step for Dobbs, and it's one UT needs him to take.

All statistics gathered from cfbstats.com unless otherwise noted.

Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.