Jerry Hughes Goes Bust to Boom in Buffalo, but Can Bills Afford to Re-Sign Him?

Defensive end Jerry Hughes was such a disappointment for the Indianapolis Colts that the team that invested a first-round selection on him in the 2010 NFL draft ended up shipping him to the Buffalo Bills for since-released inside linebacker Kelvin Sheppard.

Now, Hughes is an integral part of a Bills defense that entered Week 11 leading the NFL with 34 sacks and added five more against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. Hughes, in the final year of his contract, is on pace for a career-high 12 sacks after reaching double digits (10) for the first time in 2013—his first season in the Bills organization.

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Chris Brown of the Bills' official website wrote this week that the Bills would like to re-sign him: “[That is] job No. 1 on the defensive side of the ball. ... It's hard to argue with a unit that has largely carried the defense the last season plus which leads the league in sacks and is a top-10 run defense.”

Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller cautioned against calling Hughes a bust in Indianapolis, noting he had limited opportunity playing behind Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Hughes admitted as much, recalling his time in Indianapolis with Sal Maiorana of the Rochester (N.Y.)-based Democrat and Chronicle: “I don't think there's too much room for a third person when those guys are healthy and coming off the edge and causing the terror when I was there. It was a tough place for me to find where I would fit on the field.”

Still, the Bills took advantage of a buy-low opportunity via trade, and it has paid dividends for them in the last two seasons, as NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said:

While the uptick of counting stats like sacks, tackles for loss and quarterback hurries can be partially attributed to an increase in playing time, Hughes has proved deserving of those additional snaps with above-average ratings in both run defense and pass rush, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Last season, Hughes was PFF’s eighth-ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and ranked first at the position in PFF’s Pass Rushing Productivity metric; this season, he is the 15th-ranked 4-3 defensive end.

Jerry Hughes: Season-by-Season Breakdown

	Defensive Statistics					PFF Grades
	Tack.	Sacks	TFL	QBH		Snaps	Ovr.	Rush	Run
2010–IND	6	0.0	1	1		15.5%	-5.1	-3.1	-0.3
2011–IND	4	1.0	0	1		19.6%	-5.7	-1.1	-5.3
2012–IND	23	4.0	7	10		55.1%	-5.1	+6.0	-7.1
2013–BUF	30	10.0	9	18		52.8%	+19.9	+21.6	+4.5
2014–BUF	24	7.5	10	11		65.3%	+5.3	+6.7	+4.4

Of the Bills' 39 sacks this season, 30.5 of them have come from their dominant starting defensive line: Mario Williams (10), Marcell Dareus (10), Hughes (7.5) and Kyle Williams (3.0). Hughes plays alongside players who are more likely to be double-teamed, leaving him alone in one-on-one situations.

Per Maiorana, Kyle Williams said that Hughes has been the Bills' best defensive player so far this season: “We all see what he does rushing the passer, but rushing the passer isn't just about getting sacks. ... Jerry gets sacks, and he creates pressure in the backfield in the run game and the pass game. He's done a great job.”

In his introductory press conference, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz explained his scheme was “built on the guys up front getting after the quarterback.” He generally avoids blitzing and plays soft coverage to avoid being susceptible against the run and long pass plays.

From a scheme standpoint—and with the quality of players on their defensive line—Hughes is a perfect fit for the Bills defense. If the Bills front four fails to apply pressure, opposing quarterbacks can pick apart the defense in the short- to medium-passing game.

From a business standpoint, however, Hughes might be the odd man out.

According to Over The Cap, the top three salaries on the Bills this season belong to the other three starters on the defensive line. When the Bills signed Mario Williams prior to the 2012 season, his contract included the most guaranteed money ($50 million) ever given to a defensive player at the time. Kyle Williams is currently playing on a long-term deal, and Dareus is due for a long-term contract after next season.

The Bills will want to keep their defensive line together for as long as possible, and investing large chunks of money for pass-rushers makes sense from a team-building perspective. Yet the Bills have plenty of holes to fill among other positional groups, and at a certain point, the production would not match the salaries invested in the defensive line as a whole.

If the Bills add another big contract to their defensive line and fail to address other holes by doing so, they should view the player as expandable. Furthermore, it is not worth retaining Hughes if doing so puts the team at risk of losing one of its other three starting defensive linemen.

The franchise tag for defensive ends last season was $13.1 million, which is not a realistic option for the Bills. What Hughes can aim for is a contract similar to those received by Michael Bennett (four years, $32 million; $16 million guaranteed), Everson Griffen (five years, $43.5 million; $19.8 million guaranteed) and Michael Johnson (five years, $43.75 million; $24 million guaranteed) prior to last season.

The caveat here is that the NFL’s salary cap continues to rise—nearly a $10 million increase to $133 million in 2014—and could hit $160 million in 2016, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. In that case, it seems possible the Bills could re-sign both Hughes and Dareus and do so in a financially responsible manner, keeping their greatest strength—the team's elite defensive line—intact moving forward.