Lions vs. Cardinals: Breaking Down Detroit's Game Plan

The top two teams in the current NFC playoff seeding face off in Glendale when the Arizona Cardinals host the Detroit Lions.

What: Detroit Lions (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

When: Sunday, November 16, 4:25 p.m. ET

Watch: Fox, Chris Myers and Ronde Barber on the Call

These two teams definitively disprove the theory that teams must run the ball well in order to win. Neither team does much of anything on the ground, and both run defenses are elite.

	Yards per Carry (Rank)	Yards Per Game	Yards Per Carry Against	Yards Per Game Allowed
Lions	3.1 (t-31st)	77.8 (31st)	3.2 (t-1st)	71.3 (2nd)
Cardinals	3.2 (30th)	83.6 (29th)	3.4 (4th)	78.6 (3rd)

As a result, the primary matchups in this high-stakes contest feature the passing offenses and defenses.

These Cardinals look a whole lot different than Detroit's last opponent, the Miami Dolphins. While Miami opts for a dink-and-dunk strategy to keep bending the defense, Arizona loves to challenge vertically. 

This is even more pronounced with Drew Stanton, who once again takes the reins for an injured Carson Palmer:

"

Palmer attempted 224 passes in his 6 games... 37% over 10+ yards. Stanton has attempted 93 passes... 47% over 10+ yards...

— Seth (@SCoxFB) November 12, 2014"

Stanton will be making his fourth start on the season, one of which he departed with an injury of his own. He loves to air it out deep, something head coach Bruce Arians demands of the quarterbacks in his aggressive vertical attack. 

It suits Stanton well. He's a lot better throwing deep than he is on short routes, something Lions and Michigan State Spartans fans probably remember from his days in the Mitten State. The numbers, courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required), bear this out.

Created by Jeff Risdon

The section in green is where Stanton has a quarterback rating over 100. The red sections indicate a QB rating below 50. Judging from that, it's probably a good idea to force him to throw to his left. 

One way to accomplish this is to bring pressure from the right. Detroit did this quite well against Ryan Tannehill in Week 10, never more effectively than on a play starting from this formation:

NFL Game Rewind

I broke down the mechanics of this Ezekiel Ansah sack in a recent article, so I won't go overboard here. The Lions are very good at pressuring the quarterback from a barrage of angles and with a variety of players. Eleven different Lions have at least half a sack, and the defense ranks fifth in sack percentage.  

Containing the vertical attack requires disciplined, smart safety play and reliable cornerback work outside. So far, Detroit has thrived in this area. Bucky Brooks of NFL.com broke down the Lions defense in an excellent piece, which noted the following:

"

Cornerbacks Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay have not allowed the ball to fly over their heads, while safeties Glover Quin and Ihedigbo have essentially shut down the open windows between the hashes. Thus, opponents have been forced to "dink and dunk" the ball to tight ends and running backs instead of taking deep shots down the field. Given the challenge of moving the ball the length of the field on short passes, the Lions have been able to employ a bend-but-don't-break strategy in critical moments. This approach allows them to preserve leads at the end of games and frustrate big-armed quarterbacks (see: Aaron Rodgers) looking for home runs in the passing game.

"

It's been consistent all season long. The longest pass Miami completed last week went for 20 yards, and the Lions have only been beaten for a big play once all year:

"

The #Lions have only allowed ONE TD pass outside of the red zone, to Kenny Stills week 7. All others 14 yards or less.

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) November 11, 2014"

Of course, in this game it might only take one bad play to turn the tide. Arizona puts so much pressure on the opposing defense by spreading out the formation and attacking down the field. One of the deep-middle touchdowns from the above Stanton passing chart came as the result of a simple mistake in coverage.

With speedy rookie John Brown running a post from the outside left, safety Rodney McLeod is in decent position to make a play, but he inexplicably opts to take a ponderous angle.

NFL Game Rewind

This picture is taken as Stanton releases the ball. McLeod runs forward and inside instead of going after the streaking Brown. If the safety goes straight with Brown, his impressive over-the-shoulder touchdown catch made inside the 5-yard line would have been significantly more difficult. 

For Detroit's offense, it's incumbent upon on the offensive line and backs to protect Matthew Stafford against a blitzkrieg of pressure from the hyper-aggressive Cardinals and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. 

Per ESPN, Bowles has dialed up blitzes on an astonishing 41.5 percent of all dropbacks heading into last week, good for fourth in the league. What's fascinating, and what gives Stafford real opportunity, is that while the Cardinals are great at bringing pressure, they're not very good at finishing the deal.

The Cardinals rank 29th in sack percentage, at a paltry 3.85, less than half of Detroit's fifth-ranked unit, at 7.85. Instead of getting sacks, they thrive at forcing the quarterback to actually throw the ball under duress. That helps explain their league-leading 14 interceptions.

While Patrick Peterson gets the majority of the publicity, Stafford needs to be wary of his corner-mate Antonio Cromartie. He's been a takeaway machine lately:

"

In the last three games, #AZCardinals CB @CRO31 has three INTs and a fumble return for a touchdown. Not bad. #STLvsAZ

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) November 10, 2014"

The Cardinals don't typically ask Peterson to mirror the top opposing threat, so expect Calvin Johnson to see looks against Cromartie and even Jerraud Powers. Ironically, Stafford's best bet is probably to target Peterson, who is decidedly hit-and-miss in coverage:

	Targets	Coverage Grade	Catch Percentage	QB Rating Allowed	INT/PD total
Peterson	49	-3.8	57.1	102.0	2
Cromartie	50	11.2	44.0	55.6	9
Powers	59	4.1	62.7	76.7	5

In studying several Cardinals games, it's clear that Cromartie is stickier in coverage. Peterson is a superior athlete, but he plays the quarterback instead of the receiver more frequently, which can be exploited by savvy passers with time. 

Another strategy, one which seems to get highlighted weekly, is for Detroit to counter pressure with quick-hit passes and screens. 

The Lions did this very well on the opening drive against Miami, peppering the Dolphins with eight passes that traveled fewer than eight yards from the line of scrimmage. One of those was a nicely executed screen to fullback Jed Collins. 

Those plays will work against Arizona, too. Dallas found success in attacking the blitz with a smartly designed screen. This wound up being Brandon Weeden's most successful gainer in relief of Tony Romo and his broken back. 

NFL Game Rewind

The Cardinals are showing a blitz, with five players bunched at the line. Dallas is spread with three wideouts and a tightly flexed tight end, and the defense is showing tight man coverage all around. With the receivers all running vertical routes, this will clear out the short perimeter brilliantly.

NFL Game Rewind

Lance Dunbar slips out with guard Zack Martin as Weeden quickly retreats. Weeden puts some mustard on the quick screen, and he's got a veritable convoy up the right sideline. Martin throws a bone-crushing block on the peeling linebacker, and the play winds up gaining 40 big yards. 

Just as with the Cardinals offense, it might only take one big play like this to spring the Lions to victory. It's important to keep challenging the Cards defense, matching their aggression. Stafford has done a much more prudent job in managing the mistakes this year, but smart risks are important to take in this one. 

Hopefully he will remember last year's game in Arizona, a 35-21 Cardinals victory in Week 2. He found Johnson on a quick slant that torched Peterson, resulting in a 72-yard touchdown.

Alas, that was the only pass which netted more than 17 yards. The inability to stretch the defense brought the Lions offense to a halt when it needed points. One of Detroit's three touchdowns came on a DeAndre Levy interception return, as Detroit rushed for under 50 yards. 

The Lions face some long, dubious history in the desert. Including last year's tough loss, the numbers are not pretty:

"

The #Cardinals have won five straight and 10 of the last 13 against the #Lions. Sunday, it's for the best record in the NFC.

— Rod Beard (@detnewsRodBeard) November 12, 2014"

This is a real test for the surging Lions. The Cardinals have a very strong, confident team that is well-coached and thrives on pressuring the opponent on both sides of the ball. A win in Arizona would surely answer lingering doubts about the validity of Detroit's impressive 7-2 start.