49ers Will Limp Through Playoff Push Without Versatile Patrick Willis

Injuries often require crutches, but for a team, they can’t be a crutch. That applies to every team, even the San Francisco 49ers as they prepare to play the remainder of this season without middle linebacker Patrick Willis, whose turf toe problem will require season-ending surgery.

Nope, injuries can’t be the sole reason for failure. But they can definitely make an already steep playoff mountain climb seem like a jagged rock death.

To my knowledge, Willis isn’t a mountain climber, though that wouldn’t be the least bit surprising. He is, however, quite skilled as both a run-stuffing linebacker and a shutdown presence in coverage up the middle.

And now, after missing three games (Willis has been out a month, including the 49ers’ Week 8 bye) with a muscle strain in the big toe of his left foot, he’s set to miss seven more.

The latest blow to a 49ers defense that’s been sucker punched repeatedly by breaks, rips and strains was first reported by Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports, with Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee reporting the same fate for Willis’ season through his sources.

Then the final and official doomed words came from the 49ers: Willis is done for the season and has been placed on the injured reserve. 

The initial reaction by some will likely be to briefly mourn Willis’ season and then shrug, noting the spectacular play of rookie Chris Borland after he ascended the depth chart. That’s not wrong or poor thinking, but it’s also only partly right.

Borland’s play has been both incredible and incredibly one-dimensional. First, let’s look at the effective Borland and how he’s replaced Willis with ease as a run defender.

Though he stumbled in his first start with a few tackle whiffs (most notably, getting owned by Denver Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman at the goal line), Borland has indeed been a tackling vacuum since. In only his second start, the 2014 third-round pick recorded a whopping 12 defensive stops, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Here’s where Borland really becomes a behemoth. He’s started only those three games and appeared in four overall on defense. So with the 49ers now officially in the second half of their season, he’s been on the field for a minuscule 212 defensive snaps.

Yet even with that considerably minimal time to make plays and stuff runs, he still leads the team in defensive stops and is second in tackles.

	Snaps	Solo Tackles	Stops
Chris Borland	212	38	23
Antoine Bethea	585	49	21
Ian Williams	219	18	17
Ray McDonald	484	23	16
Michael Wilhoite	568	35	16

With the exception of nose tackle Ian Williams (who’s also been highly effective in limited use and also might be sitting out for a long time with a fracture in his leg), there’s a chasm between Borland’s snaps and the time other core 49ers defenders have spent on the field.

Yet he’s still at or near the top of significant defensive metrics, especially against the run. That’s when Borland is at his hole-filling fastest, and much like Willis, he eliminates running lanes immediately. In only his second start in Week 9, he finished with 18 tackles, three of which went for a loss. He also has a sack to his name, and he recovered what would be the game-clinching fumble during an overtime win Sunday over the New Orleans Saints.

But when Borland is compared to Willis in coverage, he begins to resemble an orange cone.

That’s not meant to be a stinging criticism of Borland’s play. The reality is that unless your name is Luke Kuechly or NaVorro Bowman (sigh), you’re generally not on Willis’ level in coverage.

Over his six games this season, Willis gave up only 124 receiving yards, per PFF, which led to an opposing passer rating of 58.3. He also allowed a catch on only 62.5 percent of his targets in coverage, and he snagged an interception back in Week 1.

Meanwhile, Borland has allowed 121 yards even though he rarely saw the field until Willis’ injury. He’s allowed a passer rating of 100.8 and 87 yards after catches (all per PFF). He’s also given up a touchdown, something Willis did only three times during the 2012 and '13 seasons even while facing 142 targets.

That touchdown came in Week 9 during a loss to the St. Louis Rams, and it tied the game just prior to halftime. It was a 21-yard catch and run by Kenny Britt after the Rams wide receiver crossed directly in front of Borland’s face on a drag route.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Later, the 23-year-old told 49ers.com he blew a read and shouldn’t have expected help.

“They ran vertical routes to my right and a drag to my left, and I thought I had help, but I should have known I didn’t [have help] to the outside," he said. "So the drag, I should have covered it.”

Borland may develop to be just fine in coverage. But right now he’s inexperienced at the professional level, and mistakes come with that lack of exposure to the speed and intricacies of coverage in the NFL. Sometimes those gaffes will be costly, which was the case against the Rams.

The steep downgrade from Willis to Borland in coverage will be especially glaring against tight ends.

The 49ers have allowed only 42.4 receiving yards per game to the position, according to Football Outsiders, largely because of Willis’ presence earlier in the season. Saints tight end Jimmy Graham just roasted the Niners for two touchdowns and 76 yards on 10 receptions, and now a 5-4 team clawing for the playoffs will have to defend the Giants’ Larry Donnell in Week 11.

Looking further ahead, the 49ers will also have to deal with Jordan Reed of the Washington Redskins in Week 12 and Antonio Gates during what could be a season-deciding game against the San Diego Chargers in Week 16. Gates is second among all tight ends in receiving touchdowns (nine) and sixth in yards (445).

The league’s second-ranked defense will have to remain at that level despite the cavernous black hole left by Willis up the middle. Bowman could provide relief at some point, but the three-time All Pro told ESPN’s Ed Werder he’s still dealing with pain in his surgically repaired knee. The defensive shuffling and reshuffling will continue, though the return of outside linebacker Aldon Smith will certainly help matters and provide some pass-rushing stability.

The 49ers' defensive patchwork needs to persevere over three more divisional games: two against the Seattle Seahawks and a season finale against the division-leading Arizona Cardinals.

Playing January football is never easy in the NFC West. For the 49ers, the task ahead now feels herculean.