Wladimir Klitschko vs. Kubrat Pulev: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
Saturday night in Hamburg, Germany, heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko defends his crown against undefeated Kubrat Pulev of Bulgaria. Pulev is a former Olympian who can match Klitschko in physical stature. This could be the champ's toughest defense in years.
There has been an exciting amount of movement in the heavyweight division over the past two years, but Klitschko's spot at the top has not been challenged at all.
Hamburg has become a home away from home for the champion from the Ukraine. The atmosphere in the 02 World Arena will be like a rock concert when Klitschko and Pulev enter the ring this weekend.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Wladimir Klitschko | Kubrat Pulev |
| Record: | 62-3, 52 KOs | 20-0, 11 KOs |
| Height: | 6'6" | 6'4.5" |
| Reach: | 81" | Unlisted |
| Weight: | About 245 lbs | About 250 lbs |
| Age: | 38 | 33 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Kiev, Ukraine | Sofia, Bulgaria |
| Rounds: | 329 | 133 |
Kubrat Pulev is slightly shorter than Wladimir Klitschko and usually comes to the ring just a few pounds heavier. But in the heavyweight division, it's a bit rare to see two fighters so closely matched in size.
Klitschko's edge in experience is huge. He's fought more than 40 more fights and nearly 200 more rounds than the challenger. He has 41 more KOs.
This fight featuring a Ukrainian and a Bulgarian once more underscores the ascendancy of Eastern Europeans in the heavyweight division.
Main Storylines
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For most of this century, Wladimir Klitschko and his older brother, Vitali, have ruled over the heavyweight division. Vitali retired last December, vacating his WBC belt, but younger brother Wlad remains at the top of the food chain with all of the other alphabet-soup belts.
The younger Klitschko brother encountered some significant setbacks early in his career. He was knocked out by journeyman Ross Puritty in 1998 and by Corrie Sanders and Lamon Brewster in 2003 and 2004.
Since then, Klitschko has gone a decade of barely losing so much as a round. Under the guidance of the late Emanuel Steward, Klitschko developed what has been an impenetrable defensive style while retaining his devastating knockout power.
Still, the memory of those three knockout losses hangs in the background whenever he enters the ring.
While Kubrat Pulev is hardly a knockout artist, he has legitimate heavyweight power. He also has the size to stand toe-to-toe with the champion and match him physically.
Pulev represented Bulgaria in the Olympics and medaled in numerous international tournaments as an amateur. I don't think he has the all-around skills of fighters like Alexander Povetkin and David Haye, but as a total package, he could be the toughest test Klitschko has faced in years.
And at this point, he's clearly the No. 1 contender in the world. He stopped Alexander Dimitrenko and Alexander Ustinov in back-to-back fights in 2012 and easily decisioned Tony Thompson in 2013.
Over the past two years, you won't find a heavyweight contender with three better wins. Ustinov, Dimitrenko and Thompson had a combined record of 97-4 with 68 KOs at the time they faced Pulev.
Strengths
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Wladimir Klitschko is a physical giant with rare athletic gifts. He is also an outstanding technician.
He has a battering ram for a jab and does an outstanding job of turning it into a sweeping hook in the middle of its trajectory. His overhand right can end a fight. His 80 percent KO percentage is a testimony to his dangerous power.
Kubrat Pulev is a well-schooled boxer. He understands distance and range and has very good timing with his punches. He has enough power to end a fight and a good eye for recognizing smart opportunities to use it.
Pulev is a large, physically powerful heavyweight. Klitschko will not have an easy time leaning on him in the clinch, as he has against smaller opponents.
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Weaknesses
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Wladimir Klitschko has been knocked out three times in his career, and that's impossible to forget, despite the decade that has passed since it happened last. It's true that almost all heavyweights have the power to knock each other out.
But few all-time greats in the division have been knocked silly on multiple occasions by second- and third-tier opposition.
Klitschko seems aware of his history when he fights and, as a result, tends to employ a kind of cautious, yet bullying, approach. It will be interesting to see how he handles an opponent he can't bully physically.
Kubrat Pulev has a bad habit of moving straight backward, and that could prove disastrous against Klitschko's sledgehammer jab. Pulev tends to fight with his lead hand held low and generally leaves holes in his defense when he goes on the attack.
It is dangerous to give a smart and thunderous puncher like Klitschko too many openings to attack.
While Pulev's footwork looked fine against ponderous plodders like Alexander Ustinov and Alexander Dmitrenko and an over-40 Tony Thompson, he'll be facing a much more dangerous boxer in the champion.
Wladimir Klitschko Will Win If...
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When Wladimir Klitschko faced Alexander Povetkin in October 2013, he fully exploited his four-inch advantage in height. He consistently popped the shorter man from the outside with jabs and straight rights before grabbing a clinch and leaning down heavily upon Povetkin's upper body, until the ref ordered a break.
It made for a boring fight, but tactically, Povetkin had no answer for it.
Klitschko will not find the same strategy so easy to employ this time around, as Kubrat Pulev is nearly the same height. To beat this opponent, Klitschko is going to need to get behind his heavy jab and employ lateral movement while looking to land his overhand right.
So this should make for a more exciting fight. Klitschko is the better boxer, and he's going to need to use that skill to win the fight.
Klitschko's movement, jab and straight right should be more than enough to win the day for him, but he's going to need to commit to them. He has to pump the jab and let the straight right go, looking to time Pulev as the Bulgarian moves backward out of range.
If Klitschko can drive Pulev backward and off balance, he needs to seize those opportunities to become aggressive. He'll win by making this a boxing match, but he can't get too cute. Klitschko has to come ready to fight.
An overcautious approach against Pulev will allow the challenger to seize the initiative and get off first with his own straight punches.
Kubrat Pulev Will Win If...
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The best fight to look at to see the way Kubrat Pulev will need to fight to beat Wladimir Klitschko is probably his 2012 stoppage of Alexander Dimitrenko. Dimitrenko is a slightly taller and longer fighter than Klitschko and fights with some of the same style, employing a busy, long-range jab.
In that fight, Pulev maintained a much tighter guard than he did against Alexander Ustinov and Tony Thompson. He'll need to be ready to close up the same way against Klitschko.
But Pulev can't just camp out behind the guard, playing catch-and-return. He's going to need to get a feel for Klitschko's timing and disrupt it by getting off first with his own jab.
I expect everything that develops in this fight to be built off the primary battle of the jab. That puts Pulev in a tough spot, as Klitschko has one of the great jabs in heavyweight history. But the only way to deal with a great jab is to use your own jab to disrupt it before it gets thrown.
Pulev needs to get off first with his own punches so he can force Klitschko to keep his hands at home. And Pulev needs to be very careful not to move straight backward, trying to evade Klitschko's punches. If he does, Klitschko will follow him, landing big shots, just when Pulev is least prepared to react to them.
Pulev needs to fight smartly and maintain a tight defense. But he needs to find a way to be first with his own offense.
Prediction
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Unlike many American boxing fans, I have no disdain for Wladimir Klitschko. I respect his record and recognize his boxing gifts.
But I would love to see a major shake-up in the heavyweight division, simply for the excitement and drama it could bring to the sport. An upset victory by Kubrat Pulev would provide that.
I don't think it is very likely, though. Pulev has a better chance to beat Klitschko than anybody the champion has faced since Sultan Ibragimov in 2008. But I still have to view the Bulgarian as a definite underdog.
Klitschko is a bigger puncher with sharper skills. At 38, he's certainly no kid anymore, but he's yet to show any signs of decline.
My big hope is that this ends up being an exciting fight. The ingredients are there for it. Klitschko is going to have to go on the offensive to beat Pulev, and that will put him at risk, as well.
My prediction is that Klitschko wins by late stoppage. Sometime next year, I'd like to see him fight the winner of Bermane Stiverne vs. Deontay Wilder.
If either man emerges from the WBC title fight with a dominant performance, his fight with Klitschko will even have the potential to be a major event on United States soil.
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