10 Key Free Agents the San Francisco Giants Need to Consider
The cheers have quieted and the confetti has been swept away, but the 2014 season will never be forgotten.
The San Francisco Giants defeated the Kansas City Royals to win their third World Series title in five years. In the modern era, with free agency and so much parity in the game, the Giants are a baseball dynasty.
The 2014 season was filled with an incredible number of highs and lows, but in the end, it was the Giants who prevailed. Now that the euphoria of the Giants' victory parade has subsided, though, it's time to look at how this team will shape up for 2015.
San Francisco has five key free agents, and it is unrealistic to believe that it can retain all of them. These players include Pablo Sandoval, Michael Morse, Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong and Sergio Romo. All played important roles in the Giants' success this past season.
Giants general manager Brian Sabean will have a tough task ahead of him this winter. He will attempt to field another championship-caliber team, with limited funds available at his disposal.
In 2014, the Giants opened the season with a payroll of approximately $149 million. That grew to over $150 million over the course of the season.
San Francisco has already committed roughly $127 million for the upcoming season, but that's for only 12 players. In addition, this includes Marco Scutaro, who may never play again.
Fresh off the exciting and financially lucrative postseason, the Giants' ownership group will undoubtedly allow Sabean to grow the payroll above the $150 million mark. Just how much more is the major question.
Even a $25 million increase, which is a realistic figure, may not enable Sabean the flexibility to build a roster as solid as the one San Francisco had in the 2014 postseason.
Let's take a look at the key free agents the Giants must consider and estimate the odds of each player returning to San Francisco.
All stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
All salary data is courtesy of BaseballProspectus.com.
No. 1: Pablo Sandoval
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Normally, we would list the top target last, but in this case, whatever happens with Pablo Sandoval will dictate the rest of Brian Sabean's moves this winter.
Sandoval will command big money from other teams, as the third base position is short on quality talent available in the marketplace.
Grant Brisbee of the McCovey Chronicles breaks down the potential suitors for Sandoval.
Reportedly, the Boston Red Sox are in hot pursuit, as Brisbee also reports in another McCovey Chronicles piece. The rumored offer of $100 million over five years coming from Boston may actually be low.
After the 2013 season, the Giants signed Hunter Pence to a five-year, $90 million contract. Although Pence was a more productive player than Sandoval over the course of the season, Sandoval has been tremendous in the postseason.
It is quite possible that a team with deep pockets, such as the Red Sox, Yankees or Dodgers, will offer Sandoval something well above the $100 million number.
The Giants will likely be very hesitant to expand beyond that, as there are concerns that Sandoval could put on a lot of weight and get out of shape once he gets that huge contract.
On the surface, looking at his regular-season stats, Sandoval does not merit that big of a contract. During the regular season, he hit .279 with 16 home runs and 73 RBI. His OBP was .324 and OPS was .739. Those are decent numbers, but not superstar totals.
Unfortunately, the Giants have no solid internal candidates at the third base position. There is also mutual admiration between Sandoval and the team. For this reason, Sandoval might be willing to settle for a reduced contract to stay in San Francisco.
Realistically, that will likely be the only way he returns in a Giants uniform.
In a statement just published, Henry Schulman of SFGate.com reports that Sandoval's agent, Gustavo Vasquez, is pushing for a six-year deal. The Giants will not likely go to that length, and if that is a priority for Sandoval, his days as a Giant are over.
Probability Sandoval remains in San Francisco: 25 percent
No. 2: Chase Headley
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If the Giants are able to retain Pablo Sandoval, they will have no need for Chase Headley. However, if they feel they cannot sign Sandoval, then Headley becomes a viable replacement option.
In 2014, Headley opened the season with the Padres and was dealt to the Yankees prior to the trade deadline.
Headley will be 31 years of age next May. Although he has had some injuries, he did play a combined total of 135 games for the Padres and Yankees this past season.
For the season, Headley hit .243 with an OBP of .328 and OPS of .700. He had 13 home runs and 49 RBI. This is a far cry from the 31 home runs and 115 RBI Headley produced in 2012. Interestingly, Headley has never approached those numbers before or since.
Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com theorizes that the Yankees are interested in keeping Headley and will sign him to a four-year, $48 million deal. That seems like too long for a player who appears to be more on the downside of his career.
If the Giants were able to sign Headley to a two-year, $26 million contract, that would be much safer.
Probability Headley joins the Giants: 15 percent
No. 3: Torii Hunter
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The Giants are in the market for a starting outfielder, and although Torii Hunter will be 40 years of age in July of 2015, he is still a very viable option.
Hunter has played in at least 140 games in nine of the past 10 seasons. In 2014, he appeared in 142 games and had 549 at-bats. He hit .286 with 17 home runs and 83 RBI. Hunter's OBP was .319, and he had an OPS of .765.
Although a right fielder throughout his career, Hunter would have no problem moving to left. He is still a very good defensive player, far better than Michael Morse or Travis Ishikawa.
Hunter was in the final year of a two-year, $26 million deal with the Tigers. If the Giants can sign him for another two-year deal in the range of $25 million, Hunter is worth the investment.
Probability Hunter joins the Giants: 10 percent
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No. 4: Jake Peavy
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San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean made one major move at the trade deadline. He acquired starting pitcher Jake Peavy from the Boston Red Sox. At the time, Peavy had a record of 1-9, with an ERA of 4.72 and a WHIP of 1.427.
With other pitchers available heading toward the trade deadline—like Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester, David Price and Jason Hammel—the move seemed inconsequential when the Giants got Peavy.
However, Peavy was rejuvenated upon his return to the National League. He was reunited with Bruce Bochy, who also managed him in San Diego.
Peavy brought a tremendous level of intensity to San Francisco and pitched very well. He stepped in for the injured Matt Cain and filled a huge void in the Giants starting rotation.
As a Giant, Peavy started 12 regular-season games and threw 78.2 innings. He compiled a record of 6-4, with an ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP of 1.042.
After a strong game against Washington in the NLDS, Peavy's performance slipped against the Cardinals and Royals. Nevertheless, without Peavy, the Giants never would have even made the playoffs.
Peavy quickly became a fan favorite and fit in well with his new teammates. At the age of 33, he proved he still has gas left in the tank.
Peavy just completed a two-year, $29 million deal. If the Giants can ink him to another two-year contract more toward the $25 million range, it would be a great fit for both parties.
If the Giants retain Pablo Sandoval, a lot of the available budget will be gone. The likelihood of Peavy returning to San Francisco grows if the Giants lose Sandoval.
Probability Peavy remains in San Francisco: 40 percent
No. 5: Jason Hammel
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When the Oakland A's acquired Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs, it appeared that they were poised for a great postseason run.
A's GM Billy Beane then traded their best hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, for pitcher Jon Lester. The A's offense sputtered, and instead of making a deep postseason run, Oakland was beaten by the Kansas City Royals in the Wild Card Game.
Hammel had been pitching extremely well in Chicago, having thrown 108.2 innings and allowing only 88 hits and 23 walks, while striking out 104. His ERA with the Cubs was 2.98, and his WHIP was an excellent 1.021.
However, Hammel struggled in Oakland. His ERA jumped to 4.26, and his WHIP also increased to 1.286. He compiled a record of 2-6 with the A's after going 8-5 with the Cubs.
Hammel was on a one-year deal for the amount of $6 million. A return to the National League might be just what Hammel needs to get back on track.
If the Giants can sign Hammel to a two-year, $16 million contract, that would be a good deal and not overly expensive.
Probability Hammel joins the Giants: 20 percent
No. 6: Sergio Romo
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Sergio Romo began the season as the Giants closer. However, after several poor outings in June, he was replaced by Santiago Casilla.
It took Romo about a month to regain his mechanics and command. Once he did, his deadly slider regained its bite, and he finished out the year very well.
Romo's season-long numbers are not impressive, but the ERA is inflated because of a few terrible outings.
For the season, Romo threw 58 innings, allowing 43 hits, 12 walks and striking out 59. His ERA ballooned up to 3.72, but his WHIP was still a very strong 0.948.
Romo was also solid in the postseason. In nine relief appearances, he worked seven innings and only allowed one run.
Romo is a fan favorite in San Francisco. Zach Links of MLBTradeRumors.com reports on the outlook for Romo in today's market.
In the 2014 postseason, the Giants proved how valuable it is to have a tremendous bullpen. Romo is an important cog in that machine.
Romo made $6.3 million in 2014, and if the Giants can retain him on a two-year, $14 million deal, that would be a good move.
Probability Romo remains in San Francisco: 55 percent
No. 7: Pat Neshek
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Pat Neshek had the best season of his career in 2014. He appeared in 71 regular-season games, working 67.1 innings, allowing only 44 hits, nine walks and striking out 68. He did appear to tire just a bit late in the season, however.
Neshek will also be remembered as the pitcher who gave up Michael Morse's game-tying home run in Game 5 of the NLCS. That home run set the stage for Travis Ishikawa's walk-off home run to send the Giants to the World Series.
Neshek was a bargain at only $1 million this year. If the Giants can sign him to a two-year, $10 million deal, that would soften the blow of losing Sergio Romo.
Probability Neshek joins the Giants: 15 percent
No. 8: Michael Morse
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Michael Morse got off to a tremendous start in his first year with the Giants. He quickly became a fan favorite and bonded very well with his teammates.
Defensively, he is a liability in left field. If the Giants retain Morse, they would need to remove him in the late innings for a defensive replacement.
Unfortunately, injuries and fatigue stripped Morse of his power and bat speed, and he went into a lengthy slump in the middle of the year.
Then, Morse injured his oblique and missed virtually all of September and the first round of the playoffs. That he was able to make it back for the NLCS against the Cardinals and the World Series against the Royals turned out to be huge for the Giants.
Morse had the big Game 5 home run against the Cardinals and also drove in four runs in the World Series against the Royals.
For the season, Morse played in 131 games, recording 438 at-bats. He hit .279 with 16 home runs and 61 RBI. His OBP was .336, and his OPS was a strong .811.
Morse was on a one-year, $6 million contract. His decent 2014 season will likely mean he is due for a raise, so the Giants would likely need to put something together in the two-year, $16 million range in order to sign him.
Probability Morse remains in San Francisco: 50/50
No. 9: Michael Cuddyer
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Michael Cuddyer is an excellent hitter. In 2013, he hit .331 and followed that up with a .332 season this past year. His OBP was .376, to go along with an OPS of .955.
Cuddyer had only 190 at-bats in 2014, as injuries plagued him throughout the season. He played in only 49 games. He did, however, hit 10 home runs and drive in 31 runs.
Although he has played third base in the past, he would be best suited for first base. If the Giants somehow got Cuddyer, he would likely be their left fielder.
The Rockies gave Cuddyer a one-year, $15.3 million qualifying offer. He has yet to accept or turn down this offer.
This means that any team that signs him would lose their No. 1 draft choice, unless it's in the top 10 of the draft.
While Cuddyer's bat would look great with the Giants, it's not likely the Giants will be open to giving up their first-round draft choice, along with the salary they will need to pay him.
Cuddyer will likely get somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 million for the 2015 season. However, that is very unlikely to come from the Giants. The price tag, the loss of the draft pick and Cuddyer's injury history do not make sense for the Giants. He is too big of a risk to spend that much money on.
The only feasible way that Cuddyer ends up with the Giants is if the Rockies sign him at a more modest price and then make a trade with the Giants.
Sabean will not give up a top draft choice for an older, injury-prone player who will cost a lot of money.
Probability Cuddyer joins the Giants: 5 percent
No. 10: Nelson Cruz
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Nelson Cruz is the top prize on the free-agent market. Even with the Orioles giving him a qualifying offer, that will not scare off every team, unlike the case of Michael Cuddyer.
Cruz had a monster season, hitting .271 with 40 home runs and 108 RBI. The 40 home runs were the tops in baseball this year.
Cruz was a bargain after the PED suspension, as he made only $8 million in 2014. He will cash in now with a contract that could be something like five years and $125 million.
This is too rich for the Giants' blood, and they will not be able to sign Cruz.
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