What to Expect from Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers Offense in Week 10

The San Francisco 49ers are approaching must-win territory, and to come out of the Superdome with a victory Sunday, they'll need a much better performance from their quarterback and offense.

That's because in Week 9, Colin Kaepernick was awful. He lost two fumbles and took eight sacks en route to a 13-10 loss to the St. Louis Rams. 

It wasn't all his fault, though. The offensive line couldn't have been much worse in pass protection. And the coaches could've called more running plays to take pressure off him.

Similar to the Rams, the New Orleans Saints haven't performed well on defense for most of this season. However, they tend to play their best in New Orleans. 

Since the start of the 2013 season, the Saints are 11-0 at home.

To keep pace with a New Orleans offense that ranks in the top five in scoring and yards per game, the Niners will have to execute as well or better than they have all season. 

Though the story will unfold Sunday, there is plenty to discern about San Francisco's offense in the lead-up to the game. 

Looking back at the Rams debacle

San Francisco had no answer for St. Louis' pass rush. Whether they blitzed or rushed just four, the Rams consistently got pressure on Kaepernick.

On some of the sacks, he had no chance. On others, he had a clear throwing lane to either target a receiver in man coverage or throw the ball away, and instead he held the ball and took a hit.  

NFL senior producer Greg Cosell broke down one of the sacks on KNBR 680:

"

The Rams played what we call Cover-0. There was no safety in the middle of the field. That's an alert before the snap of the ball. And he actually had a route with Crabtree running a post route into the wide-open middle. It was 3rd-and-3.

Now, Kaepernick has played enough games that he needs to know right away there's no one in the middle of the field, and that's where the ball has to be thrown. But the design of the play was Boldin, because that's their strong tendency on 3rd-and-short, and the Rams double-teamed Boldin. He just stayed totally focused on Boldin, with no recognition that the middle of the field was open. And as soon as Boldin was double-covered, all he did was drop his eyes and run, and he ran into a sack.  

"

Here's a picture of the play Cosell is talking about:

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Kap's field vision—or lack thereof—cost him. He had time to look off Boldin and hit Crabtree for what would have been a huge gain. The Rams gambled and got the sack they needed to keep the 49ers out of field-goal range. 

The funny thing is Kap burned the Rams on a very similar play in Week 6:

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

With no deep safety, Kap stayed composed in the pocket and found Crabtree in stride for a 32-yard touchdown. 

When he makes the correct pre-snap read, he is accurate enough to be successful. But, his inconsistency in reading defenses makes him more susceptible to mistakes than other starting quarterbacks. 

This is why the 49ers are better off leaning on their running game. When they are "on schedule," they can dictate where Kap goes with the ball by staying one step ahead of the defense. When the 49ers are consistently in 2nd- and 3rd-and-longs, Kap, like most quarterbacks, struggles. 

So, first off, the 49ers need to be effective running the ball against the Saints. 

And that will be a big challenge, considering the Saints have allowed 257 rushing yards in their last three games, including only 192 yards to running backs. 

Opponent	Attempts	Yards	Avg.	RB Yards
@ Detroit	24	59	2.5	58
vs. Green Bay	19	89	4.7	68
@ Carolina	23	109	4.7	66

How the Saints will defend the pass

When the 49ers are passing, I expect the Saints to play Kaepernick similarly to the way they played Cam Newton. 

If that's the case, you'll see less blitzing, less Cover-0 as you did last week. 

The Saints had two safeties deep on all but three third-down passing plays in their 28-10 win last Thursday over the Carolina Panthers. And two of those three plays came in the red zone, where the field is so condensed that it's difficult to go over the top of the defense.

	Att.-Comp.	Acc. %
Kap	14-of-33	42.4
Cam	5-of-26	23.1

On all other third-down plays, the Saints had both safeties playing in a deep zone. And considering Kap is far more dangerous on throws that travel 20 yards or more in the air than Newton (as the table shows), it's likely the Saints will use similar coverage schemes.

Unless the 49ers dominate on the ground. If they do so, the Saints will be forced to bring a safety into the box, which will open up the deep corners of the field like they are in this example:

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

The result of this 3rd-and-3 play above was an incompletion, but the bigger point is when given these type of pre-snap formations, Kap must take shots. There is no reason not to get the ball out quick when given Cover-1 and Cover-0 looks.  

But to even get these favorable passing looks, the 49ers offensive line will have to prove it can protect Kap against a four-man rush. 

And to do that, they'll need to slow down Junior Galette.

Though he's not quite in Robert Quinn's tier, Galette is a terrifying presence all the same. The former Temple star was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week for his two-sack performance against the Panthers. 

The good news for the 49ers is the Saints don't have an interior pass-rusher with the skills of Aaron Donald. If they can contain Galette (six sacks) and Cameron Jordan (four), Kap should have more time to locate receivers. 

What to expect

Against the Saints, Newton did not consistently burn them for playing man coverage with two deep safeties. To beat such coverage, receivers simply need to get open underneath. More good news for San Francisco: It has better weapons. So, as long the 49ers block Galette and win on the outside, they'll pass Step 1.

Step 2 is beating blitzes and Cover-1 looks, which Kap showed he could do during the final drive of the St. Louis game.

Of course, this is all easier said than done. The Saints will disguise their blitz looks, and if they confuse Kap, he'll have his issues. 

However, for all 49ers fans who have already jumped ship on this season, I suggest you give this offense and team one more shot. 

In his last seven regular-season road games, Kap has thrown 14 touchdown passes and one interception. The 49ers are 5-2 in those games. 

Crowd noise in the dome will be an issue. Kap struggled in last year's matchup in New Orleans, but this Saints defense isn't as good as it was last year, either. 

Date	Comp.-Att.	P Yards	R Yards	TD-INT
2012 Week 12	16-of-25	231	27	2-1
2013 Week 11	17-of-31	127	25	2-1

I'm expecting a solid performance—not spectacular, considering Kap is working with a rookie center and a struggling running game.

He'll be good enough to give the 49ers a shot to win the game in the fourth quarter. From there, all bets are off. 

Joseph Akeley is a San Francisco 49ers featured columnist. Follow Jakeley_BR on Twitter.