Broncos vs. Patriots: Breaking Down Denver's Game Plan

The Denver Broncos have arguably their biggest game of the year coming up on Sunday. In Week 9, the Broncos travel to Foxboro, Massachusetts, where they’ll take on the New England Patriots.

For the third week in a row, the Broncos take on a team that should make the playoffs—but this time they’re on the road.

On Thursday Night Football in Week 8, the Broncos took care of business against their division rival, the San Diego Chargers. Winning that game essentially gave the Broncos a two-game lead in the AFC West. It may only be the halfway point of the season, but playoff scenarios are impacted by games happening right now.

Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders knows this game has home-field advantage implications for the playoffs.

“I think both teams understand how big this game is, and that’s the reason we want it, and we want it really bad. And I think that today’s practice showed it. Everyone came in to work, were focused because it doesn’t happen on Sunday. It happens on Wednesday, the preparation during the week.” Sanders surmised, “So we’ve just got to continuously keep prepared and hopefully it’ll all pay off on Sunday.”

The Patriots continue their home stand this week after beating up on the Chicago Bears team 51-23. While some believe this big win was a message for the Broncos, in reality it was just a big win over a bad team.

Everything was working for Tom Brady and the Patriots passing game. Tight end Rob Gronkowski came through with nine catches, 149 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears. The matchup against Denver will be more difficult, but Gronkowski should be hard to slow down.

Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio has a healthy respect for the Patriots tight end.

“He’s certainly a gifted player. Definitely back and rolling. Very productive on third downs, red-zone situations especially. He’s a key to what they do offensively.” Del Rio continued, “He’s one of the special players in the league at that position, and there are a bunch of them out there, but he’s as good as they come.”

Let’s take a look at how the Denver Broncos will attack the New England Patriots on both sides of the ball.

When the Broncos Run the Ball

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In three starts this year, Ronnie Hillman has rushed for over 100 yards twice. In each one of his starts, Hillman has had at least 100 all-purpose yards. Needless to say, the ground game is in much better hands with Hillman instead of Montee Ball.

Ball is getting closer to returning from his groin injury, but he’s unlikely to be ready for the Patriots game. The Broncos are going to turn to Hillman and rookie power back Juwan Thompson.

Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase wouldn’t admit that the power-running game has become a big part of the team’s offense.

“I don’t know if that’s necessarily what we want to do as far as a power run game. We’re just trying to mix up some personnel and we’re trying to get as many guys involved in what we do as possible. We’re not going to be a one-dimensional team this year, and that Super Bowl last year proved that to me so we’re going to make sure we keep getting all our guys some action.” Gase emphasized, “It’s good to spread the ball out and be able to run it when we need to and use as many groupings as we can.”

Weather conditions are going to be blustery at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. Right now, meteorologists are predicting 30-40 MPH winds during the game.

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Patriot-ordered weather for Sunday: 30-40mph gusts at Gillette. low to mid 40s, will feel like 32. Should be dry, via @LeeGoldbergABC7.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 30, 2014"

This means the passing game for both teams might be limited—and that means we could see more of each team’s ground attack.

New England has the 25th-ranked rush defense in the league, and it allows a healthy average of 129.6 yards rushing per game to opponents. The Bears struggled to put up much of a fight against the Patriots last week, but they still rushed for 153 yards (on 26 carries) as a team. The Patriots rush defense hasn’t looked the same since Jerod Mayo was put on injured reserve.

It could be a nice day for the Broncos backfield.

When the Broncos Pass the Ball

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This game is all about Manning versus Brady—but the inclement weather may deny football fans of a quarterback showdown. This is the 16th time these two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks have faced each other (including playoffs). Brady owns a 10-5 edge overall, but Manning won the last game they played each other in (2013 postseason).

This is one of the NFL’s best matchups—and if the weather isn’t too much of a factor, Manning could have his way with the Patriots defense. Football fans know that he’s ready for the challenge.

Manning believes this week is special but no different in terms of preparation.

“I think every week you better be [prepared]. I don’t think any NFL team gives you the option to have an off week of preparation. I’ve got too much respect for the NFL. Maybe in college you may get a team like that where you don’t have to prepare as hard for certain teams, but in the NFL you better be all in every week.

"It’s a challenging week of preparation because they do different things. They have adjustments that they make per team that they’re playing, and then you combine that with excellent players, it makes for a tough challenge.”

His favorite target last week was Emmanuel Sanders. The free-agent addition had a monster game with nine catches, 120 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. His ability to get deep quickly is a welcome addition to this high-powered offense. Sanders may not be able to see many deep targets if the winds are gusting at Gillette Stadium.

Demaryius Thomas is one of the best receivers in the game. He’ll likely draw the coverage of All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis on Sunday. Revis is a tough draw for any receiver, but expect the Broncos to find ways to get Thomas the ball. Manning won't shy away from targeting any receiver Revis is tasked with covering.

The windy conditions might lead to shorter passing routes. That could lead to more targets for Wes Welker. The former Patriots receiver has never really had a big game against his old team. Over two games, Welker has only eight receptions and no touchdowns.

Tight end Julius Thomas can always create mismatches on the football field. Opponents have been using more bracket coverage on him in recent weeks, and that’s why his numbers have dropped off the last two games after a hot start to begin the season. The Broncos could use Thomas more this week to get their offense moving against the Patriots.

The Patriots have the second-ranked pass defense in the NFL, only allowing an average of 210.9 passing yards per game. Even though the Patriots don’t allow many passing yards, they have given up 18 passing scores to date. They have nabbed eight interceptions in 2014 (tied for seventh-best), and the Patriots have racked up 21 sacks (tied for ninth-best in the NFL) as a team.

Broncos head coach John Fox knows the Patriots pass-rushers are going to be a concern on Sunday.

“That’s why Bill’s been so successful is they’ve done a tremendous job. They’ve taken a ‘next-man-up’ philosophy. They’ve lost some key components to their defense and plugged guys in and done a terrific job. They’re not giving up explosive plays. They’re high both in scoring offense and scoring defense, and part of that is pass rush. It’s just pass defense as a whole, and they’re one of the league leaders—I think second in the league.”

When the Patriots Run the Ball

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The Patriots rushing attack is always unpredictable. After losing Stevan Ridley for the season, we’ve seen New England feature both Shane Vereen and Jonas Gray in the offense.

Against the Bears, Gray was the team’s leading rusher with 17 carries for 86 yards. Vereen was also involved but only had eight touches (five rushing, three receiving) against Chicago.

Gray is an undrafted rookie out of Notre Dame, and he’s only played in two games for the Patriots this year. He’s a bit of an unknown, but that doesn’t bother Del Rio.

“Similar to here, there is a system in place, and there are players that are called on, and they typically step up and play well. So yeah, we’re aware of Jonas and we’ll be ready for him.” Del Rio concluded, “We’ve seen the tape that is available, and we know schematically what they like to do. And that’s part of the challenge.”

Denver’s rush defense is tops in the league. It only allows an average of 72.4 rushing yards per game, and it has only surrendered five rushing scores so far this year.

In years past, Denver’s rush defense was aided by opponents abandoning balance early in games to keep up with the Broncos offense. This year, the Broncos rush defense is naturally strong and tough to run against.

The weather may push both teams to run the ball more, but don’t expect a ton of success from the Patriots on the ground.

When the Patriots Pass the Ball

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Per Elias Sports, the 890 combined career passing touchdowns for Manning (513) and Brady (377) are the most combined career passing touchdowns for opposing starting quarterbacks in NFL history. Hopefully we can see both quarterbacks fill the air with footballs on Sunday, but the weather may prevent that.

Brady is making his 200th career NFL start in this game (154-45, .774 winning percentage). The veteran superstar has won 41 straight home starts versus AFC opponents since his last loss in that scenario (against the New York Jets, Week 10 in 2006).

The Broncos are the only team that Brady has a losing record to (4-5) in the regular season. We’ll see if they can maintain that mark in Week 9. 

Fox has a ton of respect for both Brady and Bill Belichick.

“I think when you look at the New England Patriots, you look at their success: 13 straight winning seasons since Bill [became coach]. To be truthful with you, both Bill and Tom are first-ballot Hall of Fame guys—one as a coach, one as a player. They’ve got the longest current home winning streak in the National Football League at 13.”

Fox concluded, “[They are] well coached and a team that we do know. And we have not had a lot of success there, so it’ll be a big test for us, one we’re looking forward to.”

Gronkowski is tough to stop. We’ll have to wait and see how the Broncos decide to cover him on Sunday. They’re likely going to double-cover Gronkowski at least some of the time in this game.

Bad weather and shorter targets could lead to more of Julian Edelman. He had a bad week (four targets, one catch, 14 receiving yards) in the team’s big win against the Bears last week, but Edelman might be targeted more this week. In an effort to slow down the Broncos pass-rushers, we might see the Patriots use draw plays, screen passes and short jerk routes underneath.

The team’s deep target, Brandon LaFell, might not be that involved. Even if he’s targeted on longer routes, LaFell will have either Chris Harris or Aqib Talib covering him. Both Harris and Talib have six pass breakups in 2014.

The Broncos pass defense ranks 17th in the NFL, and it allows an average of 242.9 passing yards per game. It has surrendered 12 passing touchdowns and hauled in seven interceptions. The Broncos know how to get after the quarterback with 23 sacks in 2014 (tied for sixth-best in the NFL).

The weather and the Broncos defense may make it difficult for Brady and company to get on track this Sunday.

Summary 

The Broncos will face arguably their toughest game of the year this week. Playing on the road with likely poor weather does not help their cause.

Brady is one of the greatest all-time quarterbacks in NFL history. If the Broncos don’t get pressure on him, Brady could make life difficult for the Denver defense.

The weather may force the Patriots to feature their running backs more. Vereen is the most dangerous back in the backfield, as he has the speed and quickness to be a threat to score any time he touches the ball. Gray is an option for the Patriots if they want to soften up the Broncos defense with a power back.

The Patriots should struggle to get pressure on Manning. If you give Manning time, he will make you pay. However, because of the weather, we could see short-distance targets become more prevalent for the Broncos.

Gase has a plan in place regardless of the weather conditions.

“It depends which way it’s going and how bad it is. We’ll see. We’ll have a plan either way, whatever the weather conditions are.”

Simply put, the Broncos can’t afford to drop this game. The playoff implications are too steep if Denver needs a return trip to Gillette Stadium during its postseason run.

All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.