Setting Odds for Braves to Achieve Each of Their Expected Offseason Goals

The Atlanta Braves' front office is just now exiting a state of extreme flux—possibly the biggest upheaval of the organizational hierarchy since Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz rebuilt the franchise in the early '90s. Predicting the team's plans this offseason is thus mostly a matter of conjecture.

But that’s a great place to start, and an even better place to set odds on those guesses to gauge which possibilities have the best chance of coming to fruition.

The three biggest goals for the Braves this offseason will be to find top-of-the-rotation starting pitching, decide who to trade among their outfielders and figure out what to do about second base.   

A top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher

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With Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang both free agents and no one within the organization readily available to take their places, one of the biggest offseason targets will be starting pitching.

Odds Santana returns: Earlier this week I wrote that the Braves should consider bringing Santana back on a long-term contract. If that doesn’t happen, there’s still a chance that he could return on another one-year deal, assuming the team makes him a qualifying offer, which I expect them to do. Odds: 3-1

Odds Braves make a trade for a starting pitcher: Atlanta has some pieces with which they can make a trade, even some minor league pieces. They’ll need some good trade chips to acquire a mid-to-top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher (discussed further below). Never underestimate the trading ability of John Hart: He’s eager to make a big splash and prove he’s still got it. Odds: 4-1

Odds Braves sign a free-agent starting pitcher: In most years this would be a pretty good possibility with two vacancies in the rotation, but there may be a touch of shell-shock in the Braves’ free-agent checkbook. They’ve been burned by just about every big contract they’ve handed out over the past few years. While that was under the old Frank Wren regime, the new John Hart regime may be risk-averse in fear of repeating those same big-money mistakes. Odds: 10-1

Upton and Upton and Heyward, oh my!

Al Behrman/Associated Press

While we may not know any specific targets for the Braves this offseason, we do assume that other teams will be targeting two-thirds of the Braves outfield. The “front-office Johns” have likely already fielded plenty of calls inquiring about their desire to trade Jason Heyward and Justin Upton.

Both outfielders are in the final year of their contract, and Atlanta is unlikely to be able to afford both after next year. Conversely, there probably haven’t been any inbound calls about the team’s other outfielder, B.J. Upton. What will happen with each of these guys this offseason?

Odds B.J. is traded: He’ll have to be a part of another trade, and I expect the team to also explore the possibility of trading catcher Evan Gattis, so a package deal could be a real possibility. Surely some team is desperate enough. The Braves certainly seem desperate enough to get rid of him. Odds: 3-1

Odds B.J. gets better: Will a different hitting coach make the difference? Can B.J. get better? Is this a trick question? Odds: 4-1

Odds B.J. gets worse: Look away, just look away. Odds: 3-1

Odds Heyward is traded: He's the team’s best trade chip, and if they intend to rebuild at least two blue-chip prospects can be gained by trading Heyward. Of course, if they intend to rebuild, Heyward is also a good young player to start building around. Odds: 3-1

Odds Heyward gets contract extension: He has a year to go until he hits the free-agent market, at which time he’ll be entering his age-26 season. Unless the Braves blow the Freddie Freeman contract out of the water (which they can’t), then J-Hey’s going to be a free agent and will get a huge contract. Odds: 20-1

Odds J. Upton is traded: His value is pretty high right now, and the Braves could get a good return to rebuild around. Odds: 4-1

Odds J. Upton gets contract extension: Justin will be in his year-28 season his first year after free agency. He won’t get quite as big a contract as Heyward, but it will be substantial. Like J-Hey, J-Up will hit the free-agent market. Odds: 20-1

Who’s on second?

Todd Kirkland/Associated Press

We know it won’t be Dan Uggla, which should let everyone breathe easier. In Tommy La Stella, Tyler Pastornicky, Phil Gosselin and Jose Peraza the Braves have four good candidates to win the second base job in spring training. Let’s take a look at each player’s odds.

Odds it’s La Stella: With new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer preaching an up-the-middle, hit-to-contact style, La Stella may have someone who can speak his language. There may not have been a more perfect coach the Braves could have hired to assist La Stella in achieving success in the majors. Odds: 2-1

Odds it’s Pastornicky: Rev has had several opportunities to claim the second base job, but injuries and ineffectiveness have conspired to keep him from it. Can he return to spring training next year and regain a starting role? Odds: 3-1

Odds it’s Gosselin: The guy they call Goose made a spectacular turnaround last year, going from the 26th man on the roster and light-hitting backup to a higher-average hitter with more power. Can that improvement continue? Odds: 6-1

Odds it’s Peraza: This may be the guy the Braves eventually want at second. He’s super-speedy, has the best defensive range of any of the options and may turn out to be the best hitter. He probably still needs another few months in the minors and could be better as a midseason option. Odds: 11-1

Odds it’s someone outside the organization: With so many internal options and a budget that likely has little room to add big-money players, I expect the Braves will look exclusively in-house to fill their second base vacancy. Odds: 15-1