Projecting What the Atlanta Braves' Rotation Will Look Like in 2015

The biggest bright spot for the 2014 Atlanta Braves was their pitching, especially their starting pitching. While the offense was an utter disaster, ranking second to last in the NL in runs scored, the pitching staff allowed the third-fewest runs in the league.

Braves starting pitchers posted the fourth-best ERA in the league, turning what could have been a disaster for Atlanta into the bedrock of the team.

This year’s rotation was projected to include Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, but those two mid-rotation cornerstones were both injured within 48 hours of each other in spring training. The team worked hard to replace them with two veterans—the high-priced Ervin Santana and the low-cost Aaron Harang.

When looking ahead to the 2015 starting rotation, who will fill out the final spots? Will the Braves make adding depth a priority?

Returning

John Bazemore/Associated Press

The three pitchers we know (and hope) will be returning to the Braves rotation next year are Julio Teheran, Mike Minor (pictured above) and Alex Wood (pictured left). This is a terrific young core of starters to build around, and each has proven they can be top-of-the-rotation-quality pitchers.

Teheran and Wood both ranked among the top 20 in FanGraphs.com Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) for the National League this year. While Minor struggled off and on throughout the year, he’s proven in years past that he can be among the league’s best.

Free Agents

Also ranking among the top 20 in NL fWAR for starting pitchers were Santana and Harang. With each player slated to become a free agent, replacing their production will be difficult.

The Braves could try to re-sign each pitcher. Santana will likely require a big-money, long-term contract to return to Atlanta. While that may seem unlikely due to the extremely tight payroll, there could be a couple of factors that lead to a return.

The Braves have not had good luck with giving big-money, long-term contracts to free agents. Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton were all given big contracts, and all flopped big time.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

When considering whether to give a contract like that to Santana, keep in mind that he essentially had a test year in Atlanta, so the team knows who he is and what it’ll be getting, unlike the aforementioned flops. Santana also seemed to be a good teammate and even helped Minor emerge from his mid-year funk. Certainly that’s something the team should want to keep as it returns to “The Braves Way.”

Also consider the risks of replacing a pitcher of Santana’s caliber on the open market. The Braves would be chancing all of those free-agent-pitfalls they want to avoid repeating. Add in the lack of help coming from the Braves minor league system, and re-signing Santana makes a lot of sense.

Re-signing Harang, on the other hand, may not be so cut and dry. He was the oldest member of the Braves pitching staff by five years. Next year will be his age-37 season, and while he pitched great most of this year, his recent track record suggests that good work may not be repeatable.

The third free-agent starting pitcher for Atlanta is Gavin Floyd. He went down midyear after fracturing his elbow, but he is expected to be ready by spring training. This is the second major surgery to Floyd’s elbow in the last two years, so absolutely no one knows if he can return and, if he does, how effective he can be.

Two-time Tommy Johns

Two more starters clawing their way back from season-ending injury are Medlen and Beachy. Both pitchers underwent their second Tommy John ligament replacement surgery at the end of spring training.

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

How much can or should the Braves count on two pitchers returning from their second Tommy John procedures? According to Baseball America, pitchers returning from a second Tommy John surgery have a 78.7 percent success rate, which “compares pretty favorably with the percentages of pitchers who make it back from a first Tommy John surgery.”

Of course, it may be foolish for the team to pencil in any pitcher returning from surgery, let alone two. With the recovery time for Tommy John surgery at 12 to 14 months, neither Medlen nor Beachy will likely be ready for the start of the 2015 season and, therefore, should not be considered in the team’s rotation plans—at least not their "Plan A."

Bringing back both pitchers, who are considered good clubhouse guys and fan favorites, is a good "Plan B" for Atlanta. The Braves faced a similar scenario in their bullpen last offseason with Eric O’Flaherty and Jonny Venters both returning from Tommy John surgery. They were only able to re-sign Venters, though he never recovered enough to pitch in the majors—highlighting the risk of relying on pitchers returning from injury.

Organizational Depth

The Braves don’t have many minor league options ready to contribute in the rotation. At Triple-A, they have Cody Martin, a "control pitcher" who hasn’t shown much improvement the last two years but may still be a good Harang-like option.

Their first-round pick from 2013, right-hander Jason Hursh, had a solid season at Double-A, but he likely needs time at Triple-A before being declared ready for the majors.

Todd Kirkland/Associated Press

There are no other viable minor league options at this time in the Braves system. There is, however, a good option for the rotation already in the majors.

David Hale was this year’s "Plan B" for Atlanta, one which they had to use to start the season. He rewarded them with great work in the rotation. In four starts to begin the season, and two other spot starts throughout the year, Hale put up a 2.45 ERA.

With that success, he could be ready to assume a full-time starting role in the majors—something he did a lot throughout his minor league career.

Projecting the Five

If I had to guess right now who the five guys to start the 2015 season in the rotation would be, I would say Teheran, Minor, Wood, Santana and Hale. That assumes the Braves bring back Santana, for all the reasons I stated above.

That guess would also include Hale as a possible temporary option until either Medlen or Beachy are ready. I believe the Braves will re-sign at least one, if not both, of those pitchers.

The Braves should also sign another Harang-like veteran as a just-in-case option.

The offseason starts in a few days, so we’ll soon find out what the Braves’ plans for their rotation will be. Offering free agents arbitration is one of the first agenda items of the winter.