Oregon Football: Ducks' Road to Making the College Football Playoff
EUGENE, Ore. — Oregon's mantra is "Win The Day." However, when it comes to the College Football Playoff, the Ducks should be thinking "Win and You're In."
The Ducks (7-1, 4-1) are ranked No. 5 by the playoff committee, which is appropriate considering their No. 5 ranking by the Associated Press poll and No. 6 ranking by the Coaches Poll. While there may a subset of Oregon fans who are dismayed by the fact that the Ducks are the "first team out" of the playoff right now, they shouldn't be.
Oregon is right where it needs to be and, to be frank, is lucky to be in such a position after a devastating early-season loss to Arizona in Eugene. That loss could have easily cost the Ducks their shot at a place in the playoff; however, they've been granted a second chance.
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Jeff Long, the College Football Playoff committee chair and current Arkansas athletic director, was asked directly by ESPN's Rece Davis about Oregon's No. 5 ranking and why it was ranked ahead of Arizona—ranked No. 12—by the committee. "You look at Oregon, they not only beat Michigan State, but they went on the road and had a good win at UCLA" said Long, according to Chance Litton of 247 Sports. "So I think their body of work—as you guys have said and we use a lot in the room as well—is better than that of (Arizona)."
| 7-1 | No. 5 | No. 5 | No. 6 | No. 26 |
Some Oregon fans may say, "Well, if the College Football season ended today Oregon would be left out like it was on 2001! SEC biased! This system is a crock!" Fortunately, the season isn't even close to over, and should the Ducks be able to take down Stanford—something they've failed to do the past two seasons—Oregon will likely be in the top four next week.
The Ducks are sitting pretty at No. 5. If they win, they're in. However, that's easier said than done.
Biggest Obstacles to Playoff Berth
We’ve established that if Oregon wins out it's likely to earn a bid in the College Football Playoff. The Ducks have four regular-season games left and a potential Pac-12 championship game on Dec. 5 if they can win the Pac-12 North. That means that the Ducks have at least four more tough games ahead on their schedule and a home game against Colorado that shouldn’t be much of a contest. For this exercise, let’s assume that Colorado represents an easy victory.
First up for the Ducks is Stanford on Nov. 1. This is obviously the big one considering Stanford has derailed Oregon’s shot at a national title for the past two seasons. There’s no doubt that Stanford is having a down year. Currently the Cardinal are 5-3 on the season and last week dropped out of the Associated Press Top 25 for the first time in 72 weeks.
However, the Cardinal are still one of the best defensive teams in the country and have the ability to knock off the Ducks for the third consecutive season. Stanford ranks No. 2 in the country in total defense and in scoring defense. While Oregon has struggled against Stanford’s suffocating defense the past two seasons—scoring a combined 34 points—the Ducks did score 46 points against the No. 6-ranked defense in the country this season: Michigan State. That should give the Ducks some hope of succeeding against Stanford; however, it’s a tall task.
| Nov. 1 | Stanford | 5-3 | Eugene, OR |
| Nov. 8 | Utah | 6-1 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| Nov. 15 | BYE | ||
| Nov. 22 | Colorado | 2-6 | Eugene, OR |
| Nov. 29 | Oregon State | 4-3 | Corvallis, OR |
| Dec. 5 | Pac-12 Championship* | Santa Clara, CA |
*Must win Pac-12 North division
The road doesn’t get any easier for the Ducks if they finally take down Stanford. In fact, Stanford may not be Oregon’s stiffest test left on the schedule. It may end up being the Utah Utes. Utah—currently 6-1—will be waiting for the Ducks in Salt Lake City. The Utes are ranked No. 17 by the playoff committee and have beaten Michigan, UCLA and Oregon State on the road and last week took down a talented USC team at home.
Utah is going to be a tough out for Oregon because it has a strong defense—ranked No. 29 in the nation in scoring defense—its running game, led by junior Devontae Booker, is tremendous and Rice-Eccles Stadium sits 4,657 feet above sea level. It’s not an easy place to play, and the Utes will give the Ducks fits on both sides of the ball. This has “let-down game” written all over it if the Ducks beat Stanford.
Then comes a bye week for the Ducks on Nov. 15 and is followed by a home game against aforementioned Colorado on Nov. 22. While the Buffs have been more competitive this year, Oregon should be able to dominate on both sides of the ball if it's healthy.
If the Ducks go undefeated against Stanford, Utah and Colorado, which would be impressive, they would be 10-1 overall and 7-1 in the Pac-12 heading into the Civil War. The Beavers would love nothing more than to knock the Ducks out of the College Football Playoff picture.
Oregon State (4-3, 1-3) has been mediocre this season, at best; however, you can never discount the Beavers in the Civil War, especially in Corvallis. You don’t have to look any further than last year’s matchup to see how competitive Oregon State is capable of being against the Ducks.
The Ducks won the 2013 Civil War 36-35 on a touchdown pass from Marcus Mariota to Josh Huff—now with the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles—with 29 seconds left. The Beavers gained 545 yards, scored 35 points and forced the Ducks into three turnovers. While the Beavers may not be as competitive as they were last year, they still pose a threat to Oregon’s playoff aspirations.
Let’s say Oregon beats Oregon State to move to 11-1 on the season and wins the Pac-12 North division in the process. The Ducks would then be faced with a Pac-12 championship game on six days rest at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, on Dec. 5 against the Pac-12 South champion.
The advantage for the Ducks in this situation is that they’ve already played at Levi’s Stadium this season—a 59-41 victory over California on Oct. 24. However, the Pac-12 South is loaded with talent, and Oregon would likely be facing another top-20 team. Each of the teams that could potentially win the Pac-12 South—UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State or Utah—pose their own unique threat to the Ducks.
Whomever it is, it’s going to be a difficult challenge for the Ducks, especially when you consider magnitude of the game and what would be potentially at stake for Oregon. If the Ducks are 11-1, they won’t only be playing for a Pac-12 title, they’ll be playing for a shot at the national title.
Help Needed
The Ducks aren’t going to need a lot of outside help to get into the College Football Playoff. While Oregon would be the first team out of the playoff if the season ended today, there’s a good chance that the Ducks will find themselves in the top four come next Tuesday if they are able to knock off Stanford.
No. 3 Auburn and No. 4 Ole Miss meet up this week in Oxford, Mississippi, and it will likely serve as the country’s first elimination game. While it’s possible for a two-loss SEC team to get into the inaugural playoff, it’s not likely. Therefore, since Auburn and Ole Miss have one loss already, one of them is going to get knocked out of contention this weekend.
In my mind there are six teams that control their own destiny, meaning that if these six teams won the rest of their games and their conference championship they would be in the College Football Playoff. Those six teams, in no particular order, are Florida State, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, Alabama and Oregon.
Four of those six teams reside in the SEC West, meaning only one of them will have the opportunity to win the SEC championship and punch their ticket to the playoff. The other three SEC West teams would then fire up the PR machine and attempt to convince the committee and the nation that they are deserving of a spot in the playoff as the second SEC team.
For Oregon and Florida State it’s simple because there are no other true competitors for a playoff spot in their conference. Sure, if Arizona was able to win out and beat the Ducks again in the Pac-12 championship it may be deserving of a spot. However, that’s a long way away. If Oregon and Florida State win the Pac-12 and ACC, respectively, without dropping a game, they’ll earn bids into the playoff.
While the Ducks likely don't need help getting into the playoff if they're able to win out, it would be helpful to their cause if Michigan State can beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten title with one loss. The Ducks would also benefit from Arizona winning the Pac-12 South with one loss. If the Ducks were able to beat a one-loss Arizona team in the Pac-12 championship game and avenge their early-season loss, their resume would be nearly flawless.
The Ducks do not need to think too much about being left out of the College Football Playoff. If Oregon continues winning, it’ll find itself in New Orleans or, more likely, Pasadena, California, on Jan. 1.
Prediction
The Ducks have four games remaining on their regular-season schedule and a potential Pac-12 championship game to follow if they can win the Pac-12 North division.
While these five games provide Oregon the opportunity to impress the playoff committee, it's not exactly like the Ducks are going to waltz to a Pac-12 title either. Oregon has two very difficult road games ahead of it—Utah and Oregon State—and has to face its Achilles' heel—Stanford—at home.
If the Ducks manage to make it past those three opponents unscathed and hold serve against lowly Colorado, they will be rewarded with an extremely tough Pac-12 title matchup against either UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State or Utah. Regardless of whom the opponent is, it'll be a battle for the Ducks.
This is all to say that Oregon's path to the playoff is clear; however, it may be a long and winding road to get there.
Do I think Oregon will be in the inaugural College Football Playoff? Yes, I do. Why? Because the Ducks have the best quarterback in the entire country in Marcus Mariota and, with a healthy offensive line, the Ducks offense can bail them out of each and every game.
The Ducks need to improve significantly over the coming weeks if they are to make it to the playoff, specifically on defense. However, it's Mariota's world, and as long as he's playing the way he's playing right now, the Ducks should be able to run the table.
Oregon will end the season at 12-1 overall, 9-1 in conference play (including the Pac-12 title game) and will meet a SEC West team from the state of Mississippi in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1 as the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Statistics courtesy of NCAA.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes were acquired firsthand unless otherwise stated.
Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.
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