New York Yankees' Guide to the 2014-15 Free-Agent Pitching Market
New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has some tinkering to do.
While much of his focus should be spent on an offense that mustered just 3.9 runs per game in 2014, the newly re-signed GM must also spend some time upgrading a rotation that has been susceptible to injury in recent memory.
CC Sabathia is a perennial threat to spend significant time on the shelf. Masahiro Tanaka is a huge injury risk with an elbow that threatened to need Tommy John surgery last season. Ivan Nova is coming back from said surgery, but nobody knows what type of game shape he'll be in. Michael Pineda needs to show that 2014 wasn't a fluke.
Then there's the question of how many young arms will be featured in the starting five. Shane Greene made his case for a rotation spot with a strong showing with the big club, while the likes of Chase Whitley and Brett Marshall shouldn't be out of the discussion either.
Of course, the Yankees could add Brandon McCarthy and Hiroki Kuroda back from free agency and eliminate the need for inexperienced arms.
Or they could look to other free agents.
As you can see, there's a myriad of options for Cashman and the rest of the front office. To help his search for reliable pitching, the following slides have been constructed to preview the tiers of arms available this winter.
1. The Low-Risk, High-Reward Arms
1 of 5
Brian Cashman has gotten lucky before with reclamation projects who were looking for a new start. Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon are two of the more recent examples, as they both pitched successfully for the Yankees back in 2011.
There are a few pitchers available this offseasonĀ who could replicate their successes.
Chad Billingsley, once a highly touted starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, started just two games in 2013 and didn't take the mound once in 2014. Now 30 years old, time is running out for the right-hander to stay healthy and effective over a full season.
From 2008-2011, he was a high innings (at least 188 per season) and high strikeouts (at least 152 per season) kind of pitcher. He walked a few too many, but he generally kept his ERA from 3.14 to 4.21. That's a wide gap, but even the worst mark there isn't bad for a No. 4 starter.
Cashman could feasibly get that type of production from Billingsley if he can prove he's healthy. He has a team option for next season that more than likely won't be picked up.
Other interesting buy-low options include Brett Anderson, Gavin Floyd and Brandon Morrow. Anderson and Morrow require a little more patience in terms of production and health, whereas Floyd has shown he can be effective when on the mound.
2. The Overpriced Veterans
2 of 5
There are low-cost veterans, and there are absurdly priced veterans, those of which the Yankees need to stay away from. Far too often over the past decade has Brian Cashman made questionable monetary decisions.
Sure, the Yankees have the money to play with, but wouldn't it be smarter to allocate that money to another area of need (like the offense)?
Two pitchers that might entice Cashman are inevitably going to come at far too high of a price.
Ervin Santana made $14.1 million with the Atlanta Braves last season, logging 196 innings and posting a 3.95 ERA (3.39 FIP). Those are good numbers, but the volatility of Santana's career makes him a risk at anything north of that number.
Five seasons of his career saw ERAs in the threes. Two saw ERAs in the fours. Three saw ERAs in the fives. He's far too unpredictable to devote significant cash to.
Jake Peavy is another right-hander who stands to make more than he's worth. His strong postseason (which still isn't finished) with the San Francisco Giants has likely convinced potential bidders that he has something left in the tank. While that may be true, they shouldn't forget his numbers in the American League East with the Boston Red Sox at the start of the season.
Peavy told The Associated Press that he attributes his adjustments to pitching coach Dave Righetti, via the Toronto Star:Ā "He believes in me like my high school coach believed in me, if that makes sense. Thatās not saying that people in Boston didnāt believe in me. But it was a different feeling when I would take the mound there."
The "different feeling" he alluded to is something the Yankees shouldn't risk him feeling in the Bronx.
3. The Undeniable Aces
3 of 5
Max Scherzer, James Shields and Jon Lester headline this year's crop of free-agent aces. But should the Yankees bite?
History says that the Yanks will make a conscious effort to sign one of the three. When the Yankees had a clear need for pitching prior to 2009, they signed CC Sabathia. When they had another clear need entering 2014, Masahiro Tanaka was their guy.
The unreliability of the current rotation would appear to necessitate the addition of another ace. Scherzer, Shields and Lester will all command big paydays, and Cashman needs to be sure he doesn't overpay for a pitcher who might become a liability halfway through the length of a potential deal.
It might take seven years to lock down any of the three, but Shields appears to be a candidate who might accept four or five.
He'll be 33 in December. His fairytale Kansas City Royals are still contending for the World Series, but nobody truly knows if they'll have the money to keep him around in 2015.
The right-hander has never really cashed in before. He made $13.5 million this year, the most of his career. Given his consistency (at least 203.1 innings every year since 2007), he's worth around $20 million per year.
A five-year, $100 million pact seems fair for the guy they call Big Game James. He's a clear upgrade over almost everybody else in the short term for the Bombers. Long term is a different question entirely, but that's something the team can handle when it comes around.
4. The Question Marks
4 of 5
For the Yankees, adding to the rotation this offseason may simply be a matter of sticking to whatĀ they know.
Brandon McCarthy came on strong after being traded to the Yankees in July, notching seven wins with a 2.89 ERA. He hasn't always been the staple of consistency, though, so there is a bit of a risk involved with giving him a multiyear deal.
Jason Hammel is another pitcher who could be great or terrible. He went 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA with the ChicagoĀ Cubs before a midseason trade put him in an Oakland Athletics uniform.Ā It was all downhill from there, as he went just 2-6 with an ERA of 4.26 to close the season.
Perhaps the pressures of a pennant race got to Hammel, as he was rarely effective for Oakland. He was thought to be a Yankees trade target at the deadline, but Brian Cashman is probably very happy he opted for McCarthy.Ā
Aaron Harang posted a surprising season for the Atlanta Braves in 2014, posting a 12-12 record and 204.1 innings. He slowed down as the season progressed, but Atlanta got plenty out of the 36-year-old journeyman.
His 2014 numbers and reliability would be a welcome addition to the Bombers rotation, but his 2013 numbers (5.40 ERA, 143.1 innings) wouldn't. That's the risk you run with Harang.
McCarthy is the guy to target here if Cashman wants to gamble.
5. The Ideal Options
5 of 5
Assuming CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda all make it out of spring training unscathed (Ivan Nova probably won't be ready for spring training), the Yankees will have two spots to fill in the rotation.
The ideal free agents to target are James Shields and Brandon McCarthy for those roles. That would make the rotation look something like this:
| Ā Pitcher | Ā 2014 Numbers |
| Ā 1. Masahiro Tanaka | Ā 13-5, 2.77 ERA |
| Ā 2. James Shields | Ā 14-8, 3.21 ERA |
| Ā 3. Michael Pineda | Ā 5-5, 1.89 ERA |
| Ā 4. CC Sabathia | Ā 3-4, 5.28 ERA |
| Ā 5. Brandon McCarthy | Ā 10-15, 4.05 ERA |
Nova gives the team depth, as does Shane Greene, Chase Whitley and Brett Marshall. That's plenty of pitching to get through the 2015 campaign.
Brian Cashman shouldn't prioritize pitching, but he can't completely forget about arms in his pursuit for impact bats this offseason.
.png?w=600 "Who Will Panthers Take at No. 9 ? š¤")
.png?w=600 "Draft Lottery Winners and Losers")
.jpg?w=600 "WWE NXT Results & Grades š")