World Series 2014: Series Preview and Game-by-Game Predictions

On paper, the idea of an 88-win team squaring off against an 89-win team in the World Series isn't overly appealing.

Anyone who's been watching, however, will know that the 2014 Fall Classic is a better matchup than the records of the San Francisco Giants and the Kansas City Royals indicate. It's a clash between a dynasty in the making and a club that has celebrated a long-awaited return to October by going a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs.

This is a dandy of a matchup. With the series set to kick off Tuesday night at Kauffman Stadium, the only question now is if it will play out as such.

That's what we're here to discuss with a look at what each team is bringing into the World Series, along with some potential X-factors and key matchups. And because the baseball gods demand doomed predictions, yours truly is also going to take a whack at projecting how it will all turn out.

You may start the show whenever you're ready.

Projected Lineups

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Projected Giants Lineup

1. CF Gregor Blanco (L)
2. 2B Joe Panik (L)
3. C Buster Posey (R)
4. 3B Pablo Sandoval (S)
5. RF Hunter Pence (R)
6. 1B Brandon Belt (L)
7. DH Mike Morse (R)
8. LF Travis Ishikawa (L)
9. SS Brandon Crawford (L)

Assuming Giants manager Bruce Bochy uses Mike Morse to break up the string of left-handed swingers at the bottom of his lineup, this is how his batting order should look for the first two games of the series in Kansas City.

Otherwise, Bochy's lineup should only change when the Giants come across Jason Vargas. Given Pablo Sandoval's bad platoon split against left-handed pitching, Bochy will likely flip-flop him and Hunter Pence, just like he did in Game 4 of the National League Division Series when the Giants faced Gio Gonzalez.

Regardless of the order, the pressure is going to be on Bochy's lineup to produce in the World Series. Though the Giants have made it this far, they've done so with an offense that's produced a mere .244 average and .638 OPS with only five home runs.

Projected Royals Lineup

1. SS Alcides Escobar (R)
2. RF Nori Aoki (L)
3. CF Lorenzo Cain (R)
4. 1B Eric Hosmer (L)
5. DH Billy Butler (R)
6. LF Alex Gordon (L)
7. C Salvador Perez (R)
8. 2B Omar Infante (R)
9. 3B Mike Moustakas (L)

This is the lineup Royals skipper Ned Yost has used all postseason, and you can expect him to stick with it even though the performances of some players suggest changes should be made.

Specifically, Alex Gordon (.844 October OPS) and Mike Moustakas (.922) should be hitting higher, while Salvador Perez (.261) should be hitting lower.

Then again, you're free to argue that what's not broken shouldn't be fixed. This Royals offense has produced a .259 average and a .721 OPS in the postseason, numbers that easily trump what San Francisco's offense has done.

Projected Rotations

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Projected Giants Rotation

1. Madison Bumgarner (L)
2. Jake Peavy (R)
3. Tim Hudson (R)
4. Ryan Vogelsong (R)

Granted, there's nothing "projected" about this rotation. According to Chris Haft of MLB.com, this is how Bochy has chosen to line them up for the World Series.

Having Madison Bumgarner at the top is a big advantage for the Giants on paper. After really finding his groove in the second half of 2014, he's torched his way through October to the tune of a 1.42 ERA in four starts.

There's a drop-off after Bumgarner, but Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong are a solid trio. Peavy can befuddle hitters with movement and location when he's on. Hudson specializes in ground balls. Vogelsong can be overpowering when he's working on the edges of the strike zone.

Projected Royals Rotation

1. James Shields (R)
2. Yordano Ventura (R)
3. Jason Vargas (L)
4. Jeremy Guthrie (R)

As reported by MLB.com's Dick Kaegel, there's nothing projected about the top half of Kansas City's World Series rotation.

"There's never been a question mark," said Yost. "We'll go James Shields in Game 1, [Yordano] Ventura in Game 2. That's as far as I'm going."

The pressure is on Shields. He goes by the handle "Big Game James," but he's continued to not live up to that with a 5.63 ERA in three postseason starts. The Royals need him to turn things around.

After Shields, the Royals need the hard-throwing Ventura's shoulder to be as "awesome" as he says it is. Jason Vargas, however, is a good matchup for a Giants team that generally doesn't hurt left-handed starters. Jeremy Guthrie is hittable, but the Royals should be encouraged by his strong effort in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series.

Potential X-Factors

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Mike Morse, DH/PH, San Francisco Giants

Morse isn't supplanting Travis Ishikawa in left field after what Ishikawa just did in the NLCS, but he's an obvious pick to DH in Kansas City and is clearly a dangerous pinch-hitting option in San Francisco. To these ends, he'll be an extra guy for the task of hitting the ball over the Royals' vaunted outfield defense, and he could also provide some key thunder off the bench against the Royals' powerful bullpen.

Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco Giants

The Giants have yet to use their fallen ace this postseason, but that could change. Four of the eight games the Royals have played this October have gone to extra innings. If the pattern continues in the Fall Classic, the Giants may have no choice but to finally use Lincecum in relief. If he's rusty, it could go poorly. But if he takes to relieving like he did in the 2012 postseason, he could save the Giants' bacon.

Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals

The Royals come off as a team loaded with X-factors, but no player fits the bill like Perez. The Royals offense has done fine even with him being ice-cold in the postseason and has really been doing so ever since the All-Star break. Somewhere in Perez, however, is a hitter who had a .782 OPS between 2011 and 2013 and a .765 OPS in the first half of 2014. If he shows up, a scary Royals offense will get scarier.

Ned Yost, Manager, Kansas City Royals

Yost is an easy target, but he deserves credit for how he managed in the ALCS. The Royals only sacrifice bunted twice, and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs was right to praise Yost's more aggressive usage of Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis.

Nonetheless, you can't help but worry if Yost will backtrack and manage in the World Series like he managed in the AL Wild Card Game, in which he tried to kill the Royals with bad bunts and ill-advised pitching changes. If this Yost shows up, Kansas City's stay in the World Series could be brief.

Key Matchups

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The Giants vs. Kansas City's Speedsters

As much as it seems like Kansas City's running game is unstoppable, the Baltimore Orioles just proved otherwise in the ALCS. After going 12-of-13 in stolen base attempts in the Wild Card Game and the ALDS, the Royals only had one successful attempt out of three in the ALCS.

This was due to a combination of things, including how conscious Baltimore pitchers were of Royals baserunners, Steve Pearce's unusual holding style and, on one occasion, Caleb Joseph's arm.

In all, the Orioles crafted a solid blueprint for the Giants to follow. As it is, they were good at stopping the running game in the regular season, posting an above-average 31 caught-stealing percentage. Buster Posey did his part with a solid 30 CS percent.

If the Giants can do their thing while also incorporating elements of Baltimore's blueprint, the most dangerous offensive asset the Royals have will be shut down.

The Royals vs. San Francisco's High-Leverage Dominance/Weirdness

In the regular season, owning high-leverage situations was a specialty of the Giants offense. According to FanGraphs, the Giants checked in at No. 4 in average and No. 5 in runs in such situations.

In the postseason, the Giants have continued to show up in high-leverage situations, most notably with a ninth-inning rally in Game 2 of the NLDS and the two clutch homers they hit in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Other times, however, the Giants have just plain capitalized on weirdness happening in clutch situations. They scored the go-ahead run on a wild pitch in Game 4 of the NLDS, the winning run on a throwing error in Game 3 of the NLCS and the tying run on a fielder's choice in Game 4 of the NLCS.

Somehow, some way, the Royals must keep the Giants from doing their thing. That means mixing good pitching with mistake-free baseball, which is evidently not easy against the Giants.

Game 1: James Shields Changes It Up, Beats Madison Bumgarner

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Pitching Matchup: Madison Bumgarner vs. James Shields

Venue: Kauffman Stadium

In light of how he's pitched this postseason, it's hard to bet against Madison Bumgarner. It must be said, though, that the Royals are a tough matchup for him.

The big lefty is at his best when he's throwing his four-seam fastball by hitters, but the Royals aren't likely to oblige him with many swings-and-misses. They had the third-lowest whiff rate in MLB this season and, according to BaseballSavant.com, whiffed on fewer fastballs than any other team.

As for James Shields, it's hard to escape the nagging feeling that he's due for a big game. But more important than that, his changeup stands to be a very useful weapon against a Giants team that ranked No. 20 in average and No. 28 in slugging against right-handed off-speed stuff.

Surely, Bumgarner's too dangerous to be lit up. But look for the Royals to string some hits together for a couple runs off him early. He'll adjust, but his offense won't be able to do the same as Shields pitches eight shutout innings before handing a 2-0 lead over to Greg Holland.

A flawless ninth later, the Royals will lead the series 1-0.

Series: 1-0 Kansas City

Game 2: Giants Storm Back Against a Shaky Yordano Ventura

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Pitching Matchup: Jake Peavy vs. Yordano Ventura

Venue: Kauffman Stadium

While the Royals look like a tough matchup for Bumgarner in Game 1, the Giants look like a disaster of a matchup for Yordano Ventura in Game 2.

You never know with Ventura's command, and that's a bad outlook against a Giants lineup that (Pablo Sandoval aside) does a good job of working pitchers. The Giants also aren't likely to be overwhelmed by Ventura's velocity, as they finished No. 1 in average against 95-plus heat.

Buster Posey was especially deadly with a .472 average against 95-plus heat. So look for him to get the big hit that drives an already shaky Ventura from the game: a three-run double in the fourth that stretches the Giants' lead to 6-0.

The Royals will battle back against Jake Peavy and the Giants bullpen, but Jeremy Affeldt will kill an eighth-inning rally with a double play before Santiago Casilla nails down a 6-4 victory in the ninth.

When the series shifts to San Francisco, it will be all tied up.

Series: 1-1 Tie

Game 3: Royals Outfield Defense Steals the Show at AT&T Park

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Pitching Matchup: Jason Vargas vs. Tim Hudson

Venue: AT&T Park

Assuming the pitching matchup is Jason Vargas against Tim Hudson, you might expect a high-scoring game in light of how much the two of them pitch to contact. In reality, it could be anything but.

Vargas is a fly-ball pitcher who will be up against an offense that, in addition to struggling against lefty starters, ranked No. 27 in OPS against fly-ball pitchers. Hudson, meanwhile, is a ground-ball pitcher who will be up against an offense that tied for No. 26 in OPS against ground-ball pitchers.

Working in Vargas' favor, however, will be a combination of his fly-ball style, AT&T Park's huge dimensions and the Royals' superb outfield defense. We've already seen that outfield steal the show in a game started by Vargas this postseason, and it will do so again in Game 3 of the World Series.

The best of the show-stealing will come after Yost goes to what Grantland's Ben Lindbergh calls "the ultimate outfield" late in the game. The Giants will have Vargas on the ropes in the seventh inning of a 2-1 game, but Alex Gordon, Jarrod Dyson and Lorenzo Cain will make plays that preserve Kansas City's lead.

Then it will be Wade Davis in the eighth, Greg Holland in the ninth and a win for the Royals.

Series: 2-1 Kansas City

Game 4: Kansas City's Bullpen Buzzsaw Is the Deciding Factor

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Pitching Matchup: Jeremy Guthrie vs. Ryan Vogelsong

Venue: AT&T Park

One advantage Jeremy Guthrie had against the Orioles in Game 3 of the ALCS was that he was up against a mainly right-handed lineup, essentially nixing his nasty platoon split against lefty hitters.

Guthrie will have no such luxury against the Giants. They'll throw six lefty hitters—Gregor Blanco, Joe Panik, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Belt, Travis Ishikawa and Brandon Crawford—at him and work him for four runs in five innings.

But Ryan Vogelsong's smoke-and-mirrors style isn't a good matchup against the Royals' aggressive offense. He'll also find himself done after five innings, with his final mistake being a cutter to cutter-killer (see Brooks Baseball) Mike Moustakas that ends up in McCovey Cove for a two-run homer.

After the fifth, Game 4 will be a bullpen battle that Yost won't mess around with. He'll ride Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis through the ninth inning, while Bochy will keep the game tied by mixing and matching.

But by the 10th, Bochy will have no choice but to use Hunter Strickland. Eric Hosmer will make like Bryce Harper and take him deep, and then Greg Holland will come on in the 10th to nail down a 5-4 win and put the Royals one win away from the bubbly.

Series: 3-1 Kansas City

Game 5: Salvador Perez's Clutch Dinger Wins It for the Royals

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Pitching Matchup: James Shields vs. Madison Bumgarner

Venue: AT&T Park

Game 5 will bring a rematch between James Shields and Madison Bumgarner. And for six innings, Bumgarner is going to be nigh untouchable.

The trick will be him getting away from his four-seamer and instead using his cutter and curveball. Whereas the Royals had the sixth-highest average against lefty four-seamers this year, they were only No. 24 against lefty cutters and No. 15 against lefty breaking stuff.

Shields, meanwhile, will find the Giants better prepared for his changeup this time. They'll knock him from the game in the fifth and force Yost, who used Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis for two innings apiece in Game 4, to call on Brandon Finnegan to keep Kansas City's deficit at 3-1.

Finnegan, however, will be just what the doctor ordered against the Giants' lefty-heavy lineup. He'll carry the Royals through to the eighth, and he'll be in line for the win by then.

In the seventh inning, a hit and a walk will bring Salvador Perez to the plate to face Bumgarner for the third time. That's Perez's magic number, as he led the Royals in both OPS and homers in third plate appearances against a starter. Sure enough, there will go a homer to left to give the Royals a 4-3 lead.

Like that, Wade Davis handles the eighth and Greg Holland handles the ninth, and the Royals end their first postseason since 1985 in style.

Series: Royals Win 4-1

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.