San Francisco 49ers: Can Chris Borland Replace Patrick Willis?

One of the bits of negative fallout from the San Francisco 49ers’ win over the St. Louis Rams on Monday was the injury to Patrick Willis. 

The All-Pro linebacker injured his toe late in the first half, and is scheduled to have an MRI, according to ESPN.  That’s not good.  Early indications are a sprained toe, an unpleasantly unspecific diagnosis that could mean missing a week or two, or a longer-term problem.

When this happened last season, and Willis was forced to miss a couple games with a groin injury, he was replaced by Michael Wilhoite.  That can’t happen this year, however, because Wilhoite’s already busy replacing the other injured All-Pro middle linebacker, NaVorro Bowman.  Add Aldon Smith being on suspension, and the 49ers suddenly find their linebacker corps actually be a bit of a weakness for the first time in ages.

Willis’ replacement against St. Louis was—and presumably will be against the Denver Broncos if the All-Pro is unable to go—third-round rookie Chris Borland out of Wisconsin, the 2013 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.  Borland had not appeared on defense at all over the first five weeks, being limited to special teams.  Could he really be an adequate replacement for Willis?

Well, no, of course not.  A third-round pick isn’t going to come off the bench and instantly play at Willis’ All-Pro level with no experience, so of course there will be a drop off.  However, Borland made enough plays in the second half of the game on Monday night to think that he, at the very least, won’t be a complete liability.

Expectations

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Coming into this season, I thought that Borland would seriously challenge Wilhoite for the starting role in replacing Bowman, despite simply being a rookie.  From a production standpoint, Borland is better than your average third-round selection; he had 50 career tackles for losses at Wisconsin and forced 14 fumbles, as well.  He’s got a great motor and is a high-effort pursuit player who can contribute both in the pass rush and pass coverage.

He is lacking in size, however, which is why he fell to the third round.  He’s only 5’11”, with sub-30-inch arms.  His lack of size makes covering NFL tight ends a difficult proposition—especially when said tight end is Julius Thomas being thrown passes by Peyton Manning.

His complete lack of playing time has been more a result of how well Wilhoite has played as opposed to being a black mark against Borland.  He’s clearly been paying attention and was ready to step in against the Rams, as he made some strong plays in the second half.

Pass Rush

Borland didn’t rush the passer very much against St. Louis, but when he was called upon to do so, he made an impact.  Pro Football Focus (subscription required) charted him with five pass-rush snaps resulting in two hurries. Despite the small sample size, it was really a quite impressive performance.

His second hurry came on the last snap of the game and forced an errant throw, but by that point the game was essentially over.  His first hurry, however, came on the Rams’ first drive of the second half, with the scoreline still in doubt, and is more relevant.

At 9:18 of the third quarter, Borland blitzes off the right side of St. Louis’ offense, splitting the right tackle and tight end.

NFL Game Rewind

Borland is picked up by the running back, but he and Ahmad Brooks go airborne, blocking Austin Davis’ sightline.

NFL Game Rewind

The pressure forces Davis to step up into the pocket, where Brooks loops around and picks up a crucial sack to set up 3rd-and-a-mile.

Without Borland’s presence, Davis has room to step up.  Maybe it’s just an incomplete pass rather than a sack, but it’s still a better play for St. Louis.  Borland’s not going to be a devastating pass-rusher—though he did put a nice spin move on his rush on the last play of the game—but as long as he can block sight lines when rushing, he’s going to give Ahmad Brooks and Aaron Lynch chances to create pressure from the outside.

Pass Coverage

Of course, the 49ers don’t ask Patrick Willis to rush the passer much, and it’s unlikely that would change with Borland in the lineup.  About ninety percent of the time, give or take, Willis is dropping back into coverage, and against a Peyton Manning-led offense, that will be critical.

Borland was targeted three times in the second half of the game Monday night. One of those times, a pass to Zac Stacy, Borland missed a tackle and the catch-and-run netted 15 yards.  However, Borland also made plays on the ball, breaking up two passes.

The more impressive pass breakup happened in coverage on tight end Jared Cook, with 5:04 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Cook, lined up in the slot and ran a crossing route, but Borland stayed with him every step of the way, driving in on the inside shoulder to break the play up.  It’s solid coverage, with Borland recognizing the route and breaking in to stop it at the last moment; if Borland’s a half-step late, Cook has room to run for the first down.

The other tip came on a deep ball to Tavon Austin with 3:30 left to go, and it shows that perhaps Borland’s arm length isn’t as big a liability as originally thought.  Borland stretches out and, though it’s hard to see in this picture, alters the path of the ball, forcing the incompletion.

NFL Game Rewind

Borland dropped pretty deep on this play—you see he’s at the first-down marker in a 1st-and-10 situation.  Against Denver, he’s probably going to find himself in similar situations.  Peyton Manning has thrown 50 of his 185 aimed pass attempts in the middle of the field between zero and nine yards, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), so that’s right in Borland’s area of coverage responsibilities.  His awareness on this play bodes well for him covering passes in that range.

Coach Jim Harbaugh, in his postgame presser, singled out Borland for his ability to play well on short notice:

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Chris did a good job, every tackle he was his blitz tempo was good and he was good in coverage.  On at least two occasions he got a PBU.  I thought he stepped up good.

 

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Conclusion

Let’s be brutally honest—Chris Borland against Peyton Manning is a mismatch, and it’s not in San Francisco’s favor.  The 49ers will obviously be hurt if Patrick Willis cannot go this Sunday night against the Denver Broncos.

That being said, however, Borland has some interesting potential, and he played very well in limited action against the Rams last week.  While ideally he’d have an easier matchup in his first start, I don’t think that Borland will be such a liability asto cause the 49ers to lose the game.  I have confidence in his ability to play competently, even against a difficult Denver offense.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.