Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills hope to remain perfect against NFC North opponents this season when they host the reeling Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. The Bills have already beaten the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions on the road earlier this year, and they are 3-1 straight up and against the spread in their last four games vs. NFC North foes.

Point spread: Bills opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 19.8-16.4 Bills

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Rookie quarterbacks can often be unpredictable, playing great in one game and poorly the next. The good ones, though, can learn from their mistakes and bounce back from a bad performance, and the Vikings believe they have just that in first-round draft pick Teddy Bridgewater.

The former Louisville star returned from an ankle injury to throw for 188 yards and three interceptions in a 17-3 home loss to the Detroit Lions last week after sitting out a 42-10 road defeat against the Green Bay Packers.

Bridgewater had thrown for a career-high 317 yards in his previous start, which resulted in a 41-28 home victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo did not perform well under pressure last week in a 37-22 home loss to the New England Patriots with the opportunity to take sole possession of first place in the AFC East. Instead, the Bills saw the Patriots outscore them in every quarter but the scoreless first.

That setback should help serve as a wake-up call for the players, and the defense will be relieved not to have to deal with future Hall of Famer Tom Brady here. Instead, Minnesota’s Bridgewater will make just his second career road start after seeing the Vikes lose 20-9 to the New Orleans Saints in his first start back in Week 3.

Smart Pick

The Vikings are just 1-8 ATS in their past nine games against AFC East foes, and they have also failed to cover three of the last four meetings with Buffalo. The Bills realize this is one of those must-win games against an inferior opponent in Minnesota, and they simply cannot afford to lose a third consecutive home game in this spot after losing to New England and the San Diego Chargers in their previous two.

The Patriots and Chargers are at least playoff-caliber teams, and they crushed the Miami Dolphins 29-10 in their only other home game this season as 1.5-point favorites. The line may be more than double this time, but there’s a good reason for that. Buffalo is definitely the better team and should be able to win this matchup with Minnesota by at least a touchdown.

Betting trends

• Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
• The total has gone UNDER in five of Buffalo's last six games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.