Cincinnati Reds' Starting Pitchers: First Inning Blues

(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

As far as numbers go, 404 looks pretty cool.  Take away the parts that jut out of the fours and it would be 101—or binary for five.  And five is a great number.  One can do all kinds of things with five.

Unfortunately, 404 can also be looked at as a percentage. 

So far this season, Reds' pitchers have given up at least one run during the first inning of 38 of their 94 games—or 40.4 percent each time their starter has taken the mound.

In the first inning of each of the 94 games played, the Reds' starting corps has a mind-blowing 7.30 ERA. 

Yes, like all other teams, the Reds have given up some huge first innings.

Let's take away the four worst and four of the three up, three down innings, and see what we get.  The ERA drops to 5.76, with a 1.66 WHIP, .292 opponent batting average (BAA), and a .372 opponent on-base percentage (OOBP).

Remember, BAA is batting average against or opponent batting average, and OOBP is opponent on-base percentage—they will be used a lot throughout this article.

Seven different pitchers have started games for the Reds this season: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings, Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey, and Matt Maloney.

Of the seven, four have started 10 or more games: Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, and Owings. 

Not everyone is at fault.  Or are they?

Let's take a peek at some individual numbers.

Aaron Harang

Of the four who have started more than 10, Harang easily ranks numero uno.  In 20 starts, or 20 first innings, his 5.40 ERA leads the club—by 2.54 earned runs.

The major reason for his success is his control.  Harang has walked only three in 20 innings. 

Sure, Harang has given up 28 hits and is allowing a .329 BAA.  But let's give him a break.  At least he's letting opponents put the ball in play.

And since he has more than 10 starts, shall we give a brother a break?

Okay, let's take away his worst and best start and call it his "sample mean"—because that is it's official name in statistics.

Taking away a start that saw Harang face seven batters and give up four hits and three earned runs.  His numbers now look like this: 4.50 ERA, .320 BAA, .346 OOBP.

Aaron Harang is easily making himself look like Tim Lincecum when comparing him to the other Reds' starters and their first inning efforts.

Johnny Cueto

Hardcore Reds' fans will remember that Cueto got hammered for nine earned runs in a 22-1 loss to the Phillies.  Counting that start, his first inning ERA is 8.68, while sporting a 2.20 WHIP. 

Let's just forget that start and jump to his sample mean.

In 17 innings, Cueto has given up 23 hits and 10 walks.  That's almost putting two runners on base per first inning—again, not including that 22-1 game. 

Considering that, it is amazing that his ERA is only 4.76 in 17 starts.

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